Showing papers in "International Studies Quarterly in 2022"

Infrastructural Geopolitics

Abstract: Invisible and seemingly technical financial infrastructures have become the site of high geopolitics. Crucially, security sanctions are being leveraged through the global financial messaging network SWIFT. This article offers the term “infrastructural geopolitics” to draw attention to the ways in which hegemonic contestation and fracturing play out in and through payment infrastructures. Infrastructures are not passive sites to be used in the service of preexisting hegemonic power but can themselves route, block, challenge, or rework power in particular ways. We focus on the new trade mechanism INSTEX as a lens on the global battle over financial payment infrastructures. How and why has hegemonic contestation taken the shape of, and is in turn shaped by, struggles over payment infrastructure? As a heuristic device to analyze the hegemonic politics of financial infrastructure, we propose three terms that capture the processual nature of infrastructural politics: sedimentation, resurfacing, and fracturing. We apply these to the emergence of the payment infrastructure INSTEX. We explain how hegemonic politics become hardwired in the technical and largely invisible SWIFT infrastructure, which supported postwar financial order and sedimented its uneven power relations. The process of political resurfacing captures the ways in which infrastructural dispositions come to the surface of political discussion again, after 9/11 and through the JCPOA process. In conclusion, the introduction of INSTEX has advanced the possibility of fracturing international payment routes, with multiple alternative infrastructures emerging.

Elite-Public Gaps in Attitudes to Nuclear Weapons: New Evidence from a Survey of German Citizens and Parliamentarians

Abstract: A recent surge in survey-based scholarship has shed new light on public attitudes toward nuclear weapons. Yet, we still know little about how these public attitudes differ from those of political elites. To address this gap, we conducted an original survey on a large representative sample of German citizens and on a unique elite sample of German parliamentarians. In the survey, we asked the respondents about their views on different aspects of NATO's nuclear sharing practice. We found support for several hypotheses concerning nuclear use, extended deterrence, withdrawal of forward-deployed weapons, and the feasibility of global nuclear disarmament. As such, we provide systematic empirical evidence that there are, indeed, important gaps in public and elite attitudes toward nuclear weapons. Our findings underscore the argument that scholars should survey both political elites and the general public to obtain a comprehensive picture of attitudes toward pertinent questions in our field.

Resisting Lockdown: The Influence of COVID-19 Restrictions on Social Unrest

Abstract: Abstract Responding to the COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented social and political challenges. Mitigation strategies often disrupt the daily lives of citizens and constrain rights and privileges. Policies intended to contain disease spread have provoked resentment, resistance, and backlash. We examine the extent to which specific COVID-19 policy responses influence the frequency of civil unrest. Combining insights from both grievance and opportunity models of dissent, we contend that pandemic-response policies are most likely to lead to unrest when the grievances and opportunities created by disease-mitigation strategies reinforce each other. We test our arguments with nuanced information on specific pandemic-mitigation policies, combined with geolocated events data on COVID-19-related social unrest activities. We find that policies such as workplace and school closures, which induce intense grievances and reduce the opportunity cost of engaging in collective mobilization, are associated with increases in dissent activities. Policies that restrict opportunities for mobilization, such as restrictions on public transportation, reduce the number of dissent activities. Notably, economic support policies attenuate the effects of workplace closures on dissent. Our results illustrate the varying effects of pandemic-mitigation policies on unrest depending on how the grievances they inspire relate to the opportunity they create.

One without the Other? Prediction and Policy in International Studies

Abstract: Salient events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukrainian crisis and Russian invasion lead to interest and debate on how research can inform policy responses. Research can provide important evidence on the potential consequences of different actions with regard to specific objectives. However, research conclusions also remain uncertain and typically depend on many assumptions. I argue that since policy prescriptions entail claims about future consequences, they must be seen as predictions. Although prediction is difficult, especially about the future, we can have better and more informed discussions about policy consequences if we pay attention to what we have learned about predictions and predicting better. Moreover, beyond whether predictions are ultimately correct or not, it is useful to consider what we can learn from them. In some cases, it is more helpful to understand how specific inputs influence predictions than to focus only on approaches that maximize overall fit. Predictions may not be intended to influence policy, but research is more likely to be useful to non-academics if presented in a clear and accessible manner. Finally, since the outcomes we try to predict depend on policy choices, we can potentially improve predictions by thinking about how decisions are made. Acontecimientos destacados, como la pandemia de la COVID 19, así como la crisis en Ucrania y la invasión rusa, suscitan el interés y el debate sobre el modo en que la investigación puede suministrar información para las respuestas en materia de políticas. La investigación puede proporcionar pruebas importantes sobre las posibles consecuencias de diferentes acciones con respecto a objetivos específicos, pero, sin embargo, las conclusiones de la investigación siguen siendo inciertas y suelen depender de muchos supuestos. Sostenemos que, dado que las recomendaciones en materia de política implican aseveraciones sobre las consecuencias futuras, deben considerarse como predicciones. Aunque hacer predicciones sea difícil, especialmente sobre el futuro, podemos llevar a cabo debates, mejores y más informados, sobre las consecuencias en materia de políticas si prestamos atención a lo que hemos aprendido sobre las predicciones y a hacer mejores predicciones. Además, más allá de si las predicciones resultan ser correctas o no, es útil considerar lo que podemos aprender de ellas. En algunos casos es más útil entender como contribuciones concretas influyen en las predicciones que centrarse solo en enfoques que maximicen el grado de adecuación general. Puede que las predicciones no se destinen a influir en las políticas, pero es más probable que la investigación sea más útil para no académicos si se presenta de una manera clara y accesible. Por último, puesto que los resultados que intentamos predecir dependen de las decisiones en materia de políticas, tenemos el potencial para mejorar las predicciones si pensamos en cómo se toman las decisiones. Les événements d'importance majeure tels que la pandémie de COVID-19 ou l'invasion de l'Ukraine par la Russie incitent à se pencher sur la manière dont la recherche peut informer les réactions politiques. En effet, la recherche peut fournir des preuves cruciales sur les conséquences potentielles de diverses actions, au regard d'objectifs spécifiques. Toutefois, ses conclusions demeurent également incertaines, et s'appuient généralement sur de nombreuses hypothèses. J'avance que, dans la mesure où les mesures politiques impliquent des affirmations relatives aux conséquences futures, elles doivent être considérées comme des prédictions. Or, bien qu'il soit difficile de prévoir l'avenir, il devient possible d'avoir des discussions plus efficaces et mieux informées en matière de conséquences politiques dès lors que nous prêtons attention à ce que nous savons des prédictions, et des moyens de les améliorer. Par ailleurs, au-delà du caractère avéré ou non des prédictions, il est important de réfléchir à ce que nous pouvons apprendre d'elles. Dans certains cas, il est plus utile de comprendre comment des données spécifiques influencent des prédictions plutôt que de se focaliser sur des approches consistant à optimiser ces dernières. Si les prédictions ne doivent pas être destinées à influencer la politique, la recherche a davantage de chances d’être utile à un public non universitaire si elle est présentée d'une manière à la fois claire et accessible. Enfin, dans la mesure où les conséquences que nous essayons de prévoir dépendent de choix politiques, nous pouvons potentiellement améliorer les prédictions en réfléchissant à la manière dont les décisions sont prises.

Disaggregating Repression: Identifying Physical Integrity Rights Allegations in Human Rights Reports

Abstract: Most cross-national human rights datasets rely on human coding to produce yearly, country-level indicators of state human rights practices. Hand-coding the documents that contain the information on which these scores are based is tedious and time-consuming, but has been viewed as necessary given the complexity and detail of the information contained in the text. However, advances in automated text analysis have the potential to streamline this process without sacrificing accuracy. In this research note, we take the first step in creating this streamlined process by employing a supervised machine learning automated coding method that extracts specific allegations of physical integrity rights violations from the original text of country reports on human rights. This method produces a dataset including 163,512 unique abuse allegations in 196 countries between 1999 and 2016. This dataset and method will assist researchers of physical integrity rights abuse because it will allow them to produce allegation-level human rights measures that have previously not existed and provide a jumping-off point for future projects aimed at using supervised machine learning to create global human rights metrics.

Provocation, Public Opinion, and International Disputes: Evidence from China

Abstract: What public pressures do leaders face in international disputes? Leaders often denounce foreign actions as provocations, triggering public anger and demands for restitution. Rather than generating a reflexive rally around the flag, we argue that leaders who invoke foreign provocations—whether hypothetical, remembered, exaggerated, or real—face heightened public disapproval if they fail to take tough action in the present. Across two survey experiments and a quasi-experiment involving US naval patrols in the South China Sea, we find that incidents construed as provocative increase public pressure on the Chinese government to respond or incur public disapproval. We discuss possible explanations, how government elites seek to mitigate public disapproval, and how such events can change the logic of coercion and deterrence.

Digital Multilateralism in Practice: Extending Critical Policy Ethnography to Digital Negotiation Sites

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly increased the use of online tools in the conduct of multilateral environmental negotiations. Although scholars have recognized that information and communication technologies have gradually been reshaping traditional diplomatic practice, such technologies are not considered to be transformative of diplomatic practice itself. However, owing to the COVID-19 pandemic states have had to rush into unprecedented and unpredictable forms of digital cooperation that are poorly understood. To illuminate this uncharted area, our research applies combined digital and critical policy ethnography to two online dialogues within the framework of ongoing negotiations under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea toward a new treaty for the protection and sustainable use of marine biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction. Digital critical policy ethnography conducted at two online sites enables us to study the political effects of emerging international practices. We re-interpret digital diplomacy in terms of “communities of practice” developing across, and connecting physical and digital sites. Virtual communications amongst state and non-state actors mirror traditional forms of diplomacy whilst introducing new practices that may change conventional forms of international treaty-making. We propose the term digital multilateralism to capture these new forms and conclude that it can have two effects: deepen the background knowledge of actors that form a community of practice and create new inequalities.

Has Global Trade Competition Really Led to a Race to the Bottom in Labor Standards?

Abstract: The possibility that economic competition puts working and employment conditions under pressure is a frequently voiced concern in debates on international trade. We provide an empirical assessment of the argument that competition for world markets has generated a race to the bottom in labor standards. Spatial econometrics is used to identify interdependence in labor practices among trade competitors. We present a strategy for measuring export competition between countries that fulfills several criteria: It reflects actual competition between firms offering similar products, rather than export similarity in relation to a few very broad product categories; it captures not only what competitor countries export but also how much; it takes into account that states are exposed to export competition to different degrees; and it focuses on the downward pressure stemming from a deterioration of labor rights protections among close competitors. To address endogeneity, we implement a two-stage least-squares (2SLS) instrumental variable approach and a difference two-stage generalized method of moments (GMM) approach. We find no evidence that export competition has triggered a race to the bottom in two samples covering most states in the world over nearly three decades. The finding is robust to a variety of alternative specifications.

Do Birds of a Feather Flock Together? Rebel Constituencies and Civil War Alliances

Abstract: Abstract Challenging influential perspectives that downplay the role of shared rebel constituencies, we argue that they represent important causes of rebel alliances. Yet, we theorize distinct effects for different types of constituency. While compatible political aspirations push both organizations with a common ideological constituency and those with a common ethnic constituency to ally, for co-ethnic organizations this cooperation-inducing effect is offset by a cooperation-suppressing effect due to their higher risk of inter-rebel war. Leveraging a novel dataset of alliances in multiparty civil wars (1946–2015), we find support for our theoretical expectations. Shared ideological constituencies have a larger and more robust positive effect on the probability of alliances than shared ethnic constituencies. Furthermore, we find that co-ethnic rebel organizations tend to establish informal alliances only, while organizations sharing an ideological constituency are drawn to formal alliances.

Love is Worldmaking: Reading Rabindranath Tagore's Gora as International Theory

Abstract: Love constitutes the global because it is normatively implicated in worldmaking work. I illustrate this empirically via a close and contextualized reading of the political novel Gora, which was set during a key moment of worldmaking during empire and penned by the first non-European Nobel Laureate in literature, Rabindranath Tagore (1861–1941). Tagore is an underappreciated figure in global international relations (IR) who not only traversed multiple political circles during the British empire but also saw himself as a confluence of several cultures. I read Gora as lending insight into love as a site of normative contestation—ethically indeterminate, and intimately involved in worldmaking projects, including nationalism, cosmopolitanism, and inter-communalism in an India on the eve of its independence. Setting Tagore's thought in conversation with contemporary research in international history, and normative and anti-colonial international political theory, makes two important offerings to the study of IR: it reveals how a sociological examination of the micropolitics of love helps us to understand and explain the innumerable ways in which intimacies animate worldmaking and equips us with a normative typology for engaging it. El amor constituye lo global porque está normativamente incluido en el trabajo de creación del mundo. Ilustro esto empíricamente mediante una lectura cercana y contextualizada de la novela política Gora, ambientada en un momento clave de la construcción del mundo durante el imperio, y escrita por el primer ganador del premio Nobel de literatura no europeo, Rabindranath Tagore (1861–1941). Tagore es una figura infravalorada en las Relaciones Internacionales (RR. II.) mundiales, que no solo atravesó múltiples círculos políticos durante el imperio británico, sino que también se vio a sí mismo como una confluencia de varias culturas. Considero que Gora refleja una visión del amor como lugar de contestación normativa, éticamente indeterminado e íntimamente implicado en proyectos de creación de mundo, incluidos el nacionalismo, el cosmopolitismo y el intercomunismo en una India en vísperas de su independencia. Al poner el pensamiento de Tagore en conversación con la investigación contemporánea de la historia internacional y la teoría política internacional normativa y anticolonial, se hacen dos importantes aportes al estudio de las relaciones internacionales: se revela cómo un examen sociológico de la micropolítica del amor nos ayuda a comprender y explicar las innumerables formas en que las intimidades animan la construcción del mundo, y nos equipa con una tipología normativa para abordarla. L'amour constitue le monde car il est normativement impliqué dans le travail de création du monde. J'illustre cela sur le plan empirique par une lecture attentive et contextualisée du roman politique Gora, qui se déroule à un moment clé de la création du monde à l’ère de l'empire britannique et qui a été écrit par le premier lauréat non européen du prix Nobel de littérature, Rabindranath Tagore (1861–1941). Tagore est une figure sous-estimée des relations internationales (RI) mondiales qui a non seulement traversé plusieurs cercles politiques durant l'empire britannique mais qui s'est également vu comme étant à la confluence de plusieurs cultures. J'ai lu Gora comme source de renseignements sur l'amour en tant que site de contestation normative éthiquement indéterminé et intimement impliqué dans les projets de création du monde, notamment dans le nationalisme, le cosmopolitisme et l'intercommunautarisme dans une Inde à la veille de son indépendance. Confronter la pensée de Tagore aux recherches contemporaines en histoire internationale et en théorie politique internationale normative et anticoloniale apporte deux contributions importantes à l’étude des RI : cela révèle la façon dont un examen sociologique de la micropolitique de l'amour nous aide à comprendre et à expliquer les innombrables manières dont les intimités animent la création du monde et nous équipe d'une typologie normative pour l'aborder.

Interests, Institutions, and the Environment: An Examination of Fisheries Subsidies

Abstract: Protecting the environment has emerged as one of the major challenges in international relations. In international environmental negotiations, countries hold divergent positions because of domestic politics and specifically the interaction of interests and institutions. Domestic political institutions privilege the interests of some groups over others, depending on their geographic distribution. This observation matters for global environmental cooperation because groups with varied interests in protecting the environment often exhibit different geographic patterns, as illustrated in negotiations over fisheries subsidies at the World Trade Organization (WTO). The fishing industry tends to be concentrated in geographic space because of its reliance on a geographically specific natural resource. The industry’s geographic concentration gives it relatively more political clout in countries with plurality electoral systems. Environmentalists, who tend to be more diffuse geographically, enjoy greater political influence in countries with proportional representation systems and party-centered electoral competition. These political dynamics, as well as the electoral success of Green political parties, influence governments’ spending priorities as well as states’ positions in international environmental negotiations.

Wrestlemania! Summit Diplomacy and Foreign Policy Performance after Trump

Abstract: In this article, we propose the category of “foreign policy performance” in order to argue that a recognition of foreign policy's theatricality can illuminate its contribution to generative processes of social construction and world-making. We focus on the practice of summit diplomacy, which operates according to a “theatrical rationality” that blurs the boundary between substantive and symbolic politics. Noting that Donald Trump's presidency called into question many of international relations’ prevailing assumptions regarding foreign policy's formulation and execution, we suggest that a performance-oriented analytic can facilitate a critical reckoning both with Trump himself and with the “statesmanlike” norms he eschewed. We read Trump's performances at international summits with reference to professional wrestling, which for all its melodramatic absurdity is a venerable and complex theatrical tradition with a highly developed critical language. Guided by four pieces of wrestling argot (“heat,” “heel,” “kayfabe,” and “cutting a promo”), we use process-tracing techniques to develop a wrestling-oriented reading of Trump's 2018 summit with Kim Jong-Un in Singapore. We argue that using wrestling in order to read Trump and Kim's deviation from the conventional norms and repertoires of foreign policy performance enables a critical assessment of the stakes at play in their reconstruction and re-establishment.

Organizations, Resistance, and Democracy: How Civil Society Organizations Impact Democratization

Abstract: When are episodes of resistance likely to lead to democratization? We argue that the participation of durable organizations rooted in quotidian relationships that are not themselves designed to compete for political power (what we call “quotidian civil society organizations,” QCSOs) drives successful democratic transitions. QCSOs are more likely to have stable preferences for democracy and durable mobilization structures that create greater accountability for new elites during political transitions and thus make shifts to democracy more likely compared to movements dominated by other organization types, such as political parties. Quantitative tests using novel data on the composition of resistance movements in Africa from 1990 to 2015 support these arguments. Older QCSOs and those independent from opposition political parties and the state also appear to be the most likely to engender democratization.

Theorizing Public Performances for International Negotiations

Abstract: This article theorizes how public performances matter in international negotiations. Studies of international negotiations are predominantly focused on power-political instruments in use around the negotiating table. I argue that public communication cannot be dismissed as cheap talk but that it plays a constitutive role in and on international negotiations. Contributing to the international relations (IR) literature on negotiations, the article suggests an orientation toward an increasingly important aspect of international negotiations in a hypermediated world political context, namely public performances that challenge the distinction between domestic signaling and claim-making toward negotiating parties. Hypermediated negotiations mean that much of what goes on in IR is spread to large audiences in new and emerging digital sites in near real time. Actors use public performances to define and legitimize their desired visions for negotiating outcomes. As public performances, these are power-political instruments in and of themselves, part of the array of tactics that states turn to when competing for influence in international negotiations. The theorization is illustrated with an example from the UK–EU Brexit negotiations. The illustration is a qualitative Twitter analysis that shows the performative toolbox in use, as well as the importance of public performances themselves in the endgame of the Brexit negotiations.

Algorithms and Influence Artificial Intelligence and Crisis Decision-Making

Abstract: Countries around the world are increasingly investing in artificial intelligence (AI) to automate military tasks that traditionally required human involvement. Despite growing interest in AI-enabled systems, relatively little research explores whether and how AI affects military decision-making. Yet, national security practitioners may perceive the judgments of and actions taken by algorithms differently than those of humans. This variation may subsequently affect decisions on the use of force. Using two original survey experiments fielded on a sample of US national security experts, we find that AI use by both friendly and rival forces affects decision-making during interstate crises. National security experts are less likely to take military action when AI is used to analyze intelligence than when humans conduct the analysis. Experts also viewed an accident involving a rival's AI-enabled weapon that kills American troops as more deserving of retaliation than an accident involving only human operators, suggesting that national security practitioners are less forgiving of errant AI systems than of similarly erring humans. Our findings suggest emerging technologies such as AI can affect decisionmakers’ perceptions in ways that shape political outcomes. Even in a world of algorithms, human decisions will still have important consequences for international security.

Political Agency, Victimhood, and Gender in Contexts of Armed Conflict: Moving beyond Dichotomies

Abstract: In this article, we nuance the relationships between political agency, victimhood, and gender during armed conflicts. Dominant narratives often spotlight individuals as either passive victims or active agents. These representations are especially pronounced for sexual violence against women in conflict, where gendered conceptions of victimhood and agency remain particularly salient. Recent scholarship challenges this dichotomized way of thinking, showing how victimhood and agency sit alongside each other. We extend this growing body of scholarship by proposing a relational conception of agency that helps us better understand exactly how victimhood and agency intersect and can even be co-constitutive. Specifically, we propose that conceptualizing agency as relational—to others, to contextual structures, to own vulnerabilities and prior victimization—is particularly well suited to overcome inadequate dichotomizations, and to illuminate the spectrum of political agency, ranging from formalized politicized spaces to more mundane forms of agency within the quotidian. Drawing on qualitative fieldwork in Colombia and Uganda, we empirically tease out these complex intersections in a context of (gendered) vulnerability.

The Character and Origins of Military Attitudes on the Use of Force

Abstract: Abstract Do military and civilian attitudes on the use of force differ and, if so, why? Past scholarship is divided not only on whether decision-makers with military experience are more hawkish but also in whether differences stem from organizational selection or socialization. We contribute to these debates through a unique opportunity to survey incoming military officers at the US Military Academy before and after basic training and pair the results with simultaneous surveys of a nationally representative sample. We find that future military elites are more hawkish than civilians, the gap is evident upon arrival, and initial socializing experiences cannot explain the gap. Numerous tests addressing potential socialization effects over a longer period reveal that experience may attenuate hawkishness but that it is insufficient to offset initial differences. The results indicate that preexisting attitudes shape the groups into which elites select as much as experiences in those groups shape attitudes.

Capital Mobility and Taxation: State–Business Collusion in China

Abstract: Abstract Do more mobile firms pay lower taxes? Conventional wisdom argues that capital mobility creates downward pressure on corporate taxes, as firms can threaten to exit. Nevertheless, empirical findings are highly mixed and hard to reconcile, partly due to a lack of data at the microlevel. Using two comprehensive panel data sets with more than 780,000 Chinese firms over two decades, we find that firms with higher shares of mobile capital pay higher effective tax rates. We contend that this counterintuitive finding results from the strategic interaction between firms and governments. Knowing their vulnerability and sunk cost, firms with more fixed assets were more active in protecting themselves by bribing and colluding with local officials. Meanwhile, officials were more willing to seek bribes from these firms in exchange for tax cuts. In contrast, mobile firms were disadvantaged. Although capital mobility may provide additional bargaining power, firms with fixed assets can overcome this advantage through state–business collusion. Our quantitative and qualitative evidence show that fixed firms paid lower taxes in cities with cozy government–business relations. However, such advantages decreased after the launch of anti-corruption campaigns and in cities with higher fiscal transparency.

The Effect of Government Repression on Civil Society: Evidence from Cambodia

Abstract: Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are a core component of a robust civil society and operate in a wide variety of sectors, ranging from service delivery to political advocacy. However, research has yet to systematically investigate whether the impact of government repression varies across NGO activities. We hypothesize that advocacy NGOs are more affected by repression than those in service delivery. Surveying 176 employees from 106 NGOs in Cambodia, we employ a conjoint experiment to examine how the level of repression affects a task crucial to NGOs’ survival: obtaining funding via grant applications. We find that while increases in the severity of repression appear to have a stronger deterrent effect for advocacy NGOs, repression has a large deterrent effect on service NGOs as well. Interviews and text analysis of open-ended questions suggest that local officials target both advocacy and service delivery NGOs, but for different reasons. Our findings speak to the spread of authoritarianism and the challenges NGOs face in countries with closing civic spaces.

Not between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea: Singapore's Hedging

Abstract: Hedging is typically understood as a middle path straddling balancing/bandwagoning, the military/economic, and United States/China. This conventional understanding of hedging confuses risk and threat. It also makes the hedging concept non-falsifiable and thus analytically dubious, while further reinforcing a false dialectic of other states in the Asia-Pacific as caught between the United States and China. This article proposes to restore the centrality of risk and autonomy back to the concept of hedging. It contends that hedging is a risk management strategy that emphasizes autonomy—to retain control, reduce uncertainty, and remain secure—preventing the costs of alignment by signaling ambiguity in the military, political, and economic sectors. This hedging concept is subsequently applied to a case study of Singapore, demonstrating that the island state is the quintessential hedger. In so doing, this article develops a falsifiable concept of hedging that enables such a strategy to be explicitly identified, and importantly, returns agency back to the other states amid intensifying Sino-US competition.

New Dimensions of Global Feminist Influence: Tracking Feminist Mobilization Worldwide, 1975–2015

Abstract: Abstract Feminist mobilization, crucial for advancing women's human rights, has increased in all world regions since 1975. However, we do not know enough about the global impact of this mobilization because we lack adequate databases to explore the ways that feminist mobilization interacts with other factors that enhance and limit women's rights, such as democracy, intergovernmental processes, and transnational, regional organizing. Our ability to explore these questions is obstructed by a lack of data on the global south and measures that focus on formal organizations. This project remedies these gaps, developing an improved measure of feminist mobilization that encompasses autonomous, domestic feminist mobilization in 126 countries, 1975–2015, enabling us to track global and regional trends. Using regional comparisons and statistical analysis, we use this new measure to reveal new patterns and complexities in feminist mobilization. We discern distinct regional patterns in such organizing that defy facile predictions of global convergence and suggest a central role for UN processes advancing women's rights. Our analysis also points to the importance of transnational feminist networks and democratization as factors enabling and strengthening feminist mobilization. We conclude by suggesting some fruitful avenues for exploring relationships between feminist movements, international institutions, and democracy.

Public Opinion on Institutional Designs for the United Nations: An International Survey Experiment

Abstract: Scholars and policy makers have intensely debated institutional reforms of the United Nations (UN) since its creation. Yet, relatively little attention has been given to institutional design preferences among the public in UN member states. This study examines two questions: Which possible rules concerning UN authority and representation do citizens prefer? Which personal and country characteristics are associated with their varying institutional preferences? A population-based conjoint survey experiment conducted in Argentina, China, India, Russia, Spain, and the United States is used to identify public preferences on nine distinct institutional design dimensions figuring prominently in UN reform debates. We find widespread support for increasing or at least maintaining UN authority over member states and for handing control over its decision-making to UN organs that would represent the citizens of every member state more directly. Citizens’ institutional preferences are associated with their political values and vary depending on whether their home countries would gain or lose influence from a specific reform.

International Bureaucrats and Organizational Performance. Country-Specific Knowledge and Sectoral Knowledge in World Bank Projects

Abstract: International organizations (IOs) try to incorporate policy-specific best practices and country-specific knowledge to increase well-informed decision-making. However, the relative contribution of the two kinds of knowledge to organizational performance is insufficiently understood. The article addresses this gap by focusing on the role of staff in World Bank performance. It posits that country-specific knowledge, sectoral knowledge, and their combination positively contribute to World Bank projects. The argument is tested drawing on a novel database on the tenure, nationality, and educational background of World Bank Task Team Leaders. Three findings stand out. First, country-specific knowledge seems to matter on average, while sectoral knowledge does not. Second, there is some evidence that staff that combine both kinds of knowledge are empowered to make more positive contributions to performance. Third, the diversity and relevance of experience, not length of tenure, are associated with more success. The findings contribute to discussions on international bureaucracies by highlighting how differences between the knowledge of individual staff shape their decision-making and performance. IOs could better tap into the existing resources in their bureaucracies to enhance their performance by rotating staff less frequently between duty stations.

Unmasking Militants: Organizational Trends in Armed Groups, 1970–2012

Abstract: Despite the prevalence of armed groups in world politics, a prominent measurement challenge obscures understanding about many of these militant actors, especially when their activities fall below the threshold of civil war. This note addresses this gap by introducing a new dataset on the organizational characteristics of 1,202 armed groups that operated in 124 countries between 1970 and 2012. It outlines the dataset's construction and uses principal component analysis to explore organizational trends across armed groups. The results show armed groups tend to organize around three archetypes, each with different ideological goals, recruitment tactics, and areas of operation. Armed group campaigns are far more numerous than previously realized and can evolve in intensity over time. Unpacking these trends creates substantial opportunities for developing and testing new group-level theories about the causes of militant formation, escalation processes, and consequences of organizational decisions.

Emotional Practices and How We Can Trace Them: Diplomats, Emojis, and Multilateral Negotiations at the UNHRC

Abstract: This article suggests a new approach for looking at emotions. In the framework that is developed, emotions are practices that are performed in context and not only felt or had. On the theoretical side, three concepts inspired by Bourdieu's work are introduced: hexis, emotional sense, and emotional performance. On the methodological side, this framework is used to make sense of emojis in digital exchanges. Emojis are the literal display of an emotion “on paper”—or rather, on screen—and constitute a simplified way to read the emotional communication between individuals. They are not epiphenomenal. Given the widespread use of instant messaging applications, they are an accessible and effective means for individuals to perform emotions. In turn, this framework opens up the possibility to analyze better how and why mundane emotions matter in international politics. How diplomats use emojis on WhatsApp during negotiations at the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva serves as an illustration. Often perceived as guided by rational calculations, diplomats also master informal and interpersonal skills to persuade, negotiate, and build connections. This fundamental social dimension of diplomatic work puts their (online) emotional practices at the center of their performances.

Transnational Advocacy, Norm Regress, and Foreign Compliance Constituencies: The Case of the “Comfort Women” Redress Movement

Abstract: The literature at the intersection of global norms and transnational advocacy typically equates target states’ foreign constituencies with those exerting normative pressure on the states in question on behalf of their domestic constituencies. Another type of foreign constituency remains undertheorized: foreign nationals as rights claimants who make normative claims against target states, such as victims of colonization seeking redress or refugees demanding their rights protection. I argue that states, including robust democracies otherwise well socialized into global norms, respond differently to compliance pressures from these two types of foreign compliance constituencies. In what I call dual norm dynamics, states may regress in their norm practices when it comes to foreign claimants while at the same time deepening their normative commitments to the international community as a whole. In an unintended consequence of norm diffusion, norm regress in target states for foreign claimants may occur as a result of successful transnational norm advocacy on their behalf. To demonstrate the empirical utility of dual norm dynamics, I look at the transnational redress movement for Korean “comfort women.”

Organizations Involved in Humanitarian Action: Introducing a New Dataset

Abstract: Although the humanitarian sector has gained prominence in the management of contemporary conflicts, data on the diversity of organizations involved in humanitarian aid are scarce and do not rely on well-founded inclusion criteria. This lack of data limits not only our knowledge of humanitarian action but also our understanding of international security and of non-state actors’ role in foreign aid. The Humanitarian Organisations Dataset (HOD) seeks to fill these gaps. Based on clear and reproducible criteria, 2,505 organizations active in the humanitarian sector have been identified while information on their history, nature, activities, and geographical location has been collected. Our analyses depart from prevailing Western-centered accounts of humanitarian, show regional variations in types of organizations, and identify distinct historical patterns by region and by type of organization. They also document a large span of humanitarian activities, going beyond the current exclusive focus on in-kind assistance. We illustrate how the dataset can contribute to further research through its combination with other data and explore the relationship between NGOs and governments in humanitarian aid funding. Beyond its value for scholars, we anticipate that the HOD will also be of interest to policymakers and nonacademic users concerned with humanitarian action and crisis-management issues.

Beyond Roll-Call Voting: Sponsorship Dynamics at the UN General Assembly

Abstract: Abstract Research on the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) has often privileged analyses on voting patterns, that is, how countries position themselves whenever a resolution is brought to a vote in each plenary session. However, voted resolutions comprise only a fraction of UNGA output, and much is still unknown about how countries behave before casting any votes. What takes place prior to and leading up to the adoption of resolutions? Even though the study of draft sponsorship remains underdeveloped, it can comprise a more valid empirical strategy to infer state preferences. This research note introduces the UN General Assembly Sponsorship Dataset, which encompasses the sponsorship behavior of every UNGA member from 2009 to 2019. We develop two novel empirical indices, priority and ownership, in order to ascertain draft relevance for each member state. We also use the new data to test longstanding arguments over vote-buying and North versus South coalitions in the UNGA. Our findings confirm mainstream conclusions for the former but challenge prevailing assumptions on the latter.

Nuclear Weapons and Low-Level Military Conflict

Abstract: Do nuclear weapons deter low-level military conflict? Although the political effects of nuclear weapons have been debated for more than seventy years, scholarship has yet to produce a clear answer. We design a study that reduces the risk of omitted variable bias relative to prior research. Our analysis compares the rates of conflict among eventual nuclear powers in the periods before and after they obtained an arsenal. We include two-way fixed effects to control for time-invariant state-specific confounders and address common shocks. Our findings indicate that switching from nonnuclear status to a nuclear arsenal decreases the risk of being targeted in militarized interstate disputes (MID) by nonnuclear challengers. However, when it comes to low-level conflict, nuclear powers do not appear to be deterred from instigating disputes with other nuclear-armed states. This result stands in contrast to most prior studies, which conclude that the possession of nuclear weapons increases or does not reliably decrease the risk of being targeted—even for nonnuclear challengers. Although there are clear limits to the deterrence benefits of nuclear weapons at low levels of conflict, states can reduce their vulnerability to some degree by developing a nuclear arsenal.

Patterns of Democracy over Space and Time

Abstract: Unidimensional measures of democracy fail to account for the complex and varied nature of political systems. This article disaggregates the concept of democracy and proposes a multidimensional conceptualization to account for this variation in institutional configurations. Three theoretically informed dimensions are featured: participation, electoral contestation, and constraints on the executive. The three dimensions constitute a cube covering all regime types, in which we place countries using V-Dem data from 1789 to 2019. This cube of democracy patterns reveals several interesting observations. We trace historical patterns of democratization and discuss how countries across the world have taken different paths at different times. Our conceptualization shows that political systems with a similar score along a unidimensional scale are often quite distinct. In addition, across the globe for 200 years, certain configurations of political institutions rarely occur. Furthermore, our approach reveals interesting patterns of regime convergence and divergence over time. Finally, we show that the typical pathways to democracy have changed since 1789. This multidimensional conceptualization ultimately opens up new avenues for research in which institutional variation and change can be studied in greater detail.