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Showing papers in "Journal of benefit-cost analysis in 2023"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper , the impact and economic merits of President Biden's Executive Order 13985 on equity depend on how the executive order is implemented, and the starting point for ex ante evaluation of equity for mortality risk policies should be the symmetric application of the value of a statistical life to all groups.
Abstract: Abstract The impact and economic merits of President Biden’s Executive Order 13985 on equity depend on how the executive order is implemented. While policy discussion to date has focused on equitable outcomes, we propose framing risk equity policies in terms of equitable risk tradeoff rates based on six policy guidelines. The starting point for ex ante evaluation of equity for mortality risk policies should be the symmetric application of the value of a statistical life (VSL) to all groups. Because of the substantial heterogeneity in VSLs by income and demographic characteristics, symmetric tradeoff rates generate subsidies and deficits relative to private values of risk. Efforts to provide for distributional preferences should be grounded in an understanding of the differentials already provided through application of a uniform VSL. Targeting government programs to specific groups ex ante should be coupled with estimates of the efficiency loss based on symmetric tradeoff rates and the implicit tradeoff rate ratio relative to the average VSL needed to support the redistributive policy. Here, we propose equity guidance that could be incorporated in a revised version of Office of Management and Budget Circular A-4. We contrast the ex ante equity guidance approach with the ex post risk equity evaluation procedure that is incorporated in the Biden Administration’s recently proposed Justice40 plan, where 40% of the benefits of existing programs must be targeted to certain minority groups without ex post examination of their cost effectiveness either feasible or currently planned.

4 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: For example, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, despite being an agency that conducts relatively complete benefit-cost analyses and explicitly analyzes environmental justice implications of its regulations, rarely considers the incidence of regulatory costs among disadvantaged groups as discussed by the authors .
Abstract: Abstract The Biden administration has made equity a priority when issuing regulations, encouraging agencies to ensure that their regulations appropriately benefit and do not inappropriately burden disadvantaged groups. But scholarly examinations of agencies’ practices to date on understanding the distributional consequences of their regulations and on promoting equity have revealed significant gaps. In particular, agencies pay very little attention to the incidence of the costs of their regulations. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, for example, rarely considers the incidence of regulatory costs among disadvantaged groups, despite being an agency that conducts relatively complete benefit–cost analyses and explicitly analyzes environmental justice implications of its regulations. But this cost-blindness is a mistake; it presents a missed opportunity to use the current equity-focused momentum to make real improvements for disadvantaged groups that could have long-lasting effects. This essay calls for agencies to give more attention to the incidence of regulatory costs in order to identify needs and opportunities for grants and investments to disadvantaged groups. This approach could provide much-needed direction for a program like the Biden administration’s Justice40 initiative.

3 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article , a uniform value of a statistical life (VSL) is part of established practice within the federal government, and whether a uniform VSL is in the interest of poor people depends on whether we are dealing with subsidies or regulations.
Abstract: Abstract A uniform value of a statistical life (VSL) is part of established practice within the federal government. Some people have applauded a uniform VSL on the ground that it respects the equality of persons; takes harm to poor people as seriously as it does harm to wealthy people; avoids expressive harms; and builds appropriate wealth redistribution into regulatory policy. Other people have strenuously objected to a uniform VSL, emphasizing that to reduce mortality risks, poor people are willing to pay less than rich people are, and urging that poor people should not have to pay more than they are willing to pay. Whether a uniform VSL is in the interest of poor people depends on whether we are dealing with subsidies or regulations. In the case of subsidies, a uniform VSL is highly likely to benefit poor people. If we are dealing with regulations, we cannot know whether a uniform VSL helps or harms poor people without knowing the incidence of costs (and benefits).

3 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Li et al. as mentioned in this paper examined the welfare cost of preventing people from owning cars because of misallocation: under a lottery, some individuals with low willingness to pay (WTP) for cars can obtain cars, while other individuals with high WTP cannot.
Abstract: Motivated by traffic congestion and air pollution, Beijing is one of several major cities to restrict vehicle ownership by requiring residents to win a lottery for the right to obtain an additional car. We examine the welfare cost of preventing people from owning cars because of misallocation: under a lottery, some individuals with low willingness to pay (WTP) for cars can obtain cars, while other individuals with high WTP cannot. We estimate welfare costs using a new contingent valuation method survey of Beijing lottery participants which we designed and conducted explicitly for this purpose. We find that restricting vehicle ownership reduced private welfare by 26 billion yuan. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that the benefits of lower congestion and pollution roughly equal the costs. Our WTP estimates indicate a net welfare gain of approximately 32 billion yuan if Beijing’s lottery were replaced with an auction, which is similar to previous estimates.

2 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article , the authors provided a costbenefit analysis of three nutrition interventions: 1) provision of preventive small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements (SQ-LNS) to children 6−23 months of age; 2) Complementary Feeding Promotion (CFP) for children 6 −23 months; 3) multiple micronutrient (MMN) and calcium (Ca) supplements to pregnant women.
Abstract: Undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies are key drivers of infant and child mortality and are causes of impaired human potential for hundreds of millions of children every year. Investing in nutrition in the first 1,000 days from conception not only supports individual lifetime health, education, and productivity, but is also key to breaking the intergenerational cycle of malnutrition and enhance equitable development pathways for low- and middle-income countries. This paper provides a cost–benefit analysis of three nutrition interventions: 1) provision of preventive small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements (SQ-LNS) to children 6−23 months of age; 2) Complementary Feeding Promotion (CFP) for children 6−23 months of age; 3) provision of multiple micronutrient (MMN) and calcium (Ca) supplements to pregnant women. The benefit–cost ratios (BCRs) for MMN supplementation for pregnant women replacing iron and folic acid (37.5), as well as MMN and Ca combined (19-24), are the highest. The BCRs for CFP for children in the two highest socio-economic status (SES) quintiles and SQ-LNS for children in the three lowest SES quintiles are fairly similar at 16 and 14, respectively. The lowest BCR is for CFP for children in the three lowest SES quintiles due to the high cost of accomplishing behavioral change for improved complementary feeding in resource-poor households.

1 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors provide a new approach for implementing generalized risk-adjusted cost-effectiveness (GRACE) analysis using exact utility functions instead of Taylor Series approximations, and illustrate with three well-known functions: constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility, hyperbolic absolute risk aversion utility, and expo-power (EP) utility.
Abstract: Abstract The generalized risk-adjusted cost-effectiveness (GRACE) analysis method modifies standard cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), the primary method currently used worldwide to value health improvements arising from healthcare interventions. Generalizing standard CEA, GRACE allows for decreasing or even increasing returns to health. Previous presentations of GRACE have relied extensively on Taylor Series expansion methods to specify key model parameters, including those that properly adjust for illness severity and preexisting disability, consequences of uncertain treatment outcomes, and the marginal rate of substitution between life expectancy and health-related quality of life. Standard CEA cannot account for these sources of value or cost in its valuation of medical treatments. However, calculations of GRACE measures based on Taylor Series are approximations, which may be poorly behaved in some contexts. This paper provides a new approach for implementing GRACE, using exact utility functions instead of Taylor Series approximations. While any proper utility function will suffice, we illustrate with three well-known functions: constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility; hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) utility, of which CRRA is a special case; and expo-power (EP) utility, of which constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) is a special case. The analysis then extends from two-period to multiperiod models. We discuss methods to estimate parameters of HARA and EP functions using two different types of data, one from discrete choice experiments and the other from “happiness economics” methods. We conclude with some reflections on how this analysis might affect benefit-cost analysis studies of healthcare interventions.

1 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article , the authors argue that utility-weights are appropriate and necessary to maintain the legitimacy of BCA as a measure of aggregate welfare, but that equity-weighted measures are inappropriate because they involve moral judgments that should remain in the domain of democratically accountable decision makers, making it impossible for decision-makers to apply their own moral values to the assessment of tradeoffs between welfare and equity.
Abstract: Abstract There are increasing calls for concrete suggestions on how to account for distributional impacts in policy analysis. Within the context of benefit-cost analysis, per se, one possibility is to apply “distributional weights,” to inflate costs and benefits experienced by poor or disadvantaged groups. We distinguish between “utility-weights,” intended to correct for the bias in willingness to pay caused by diminishing marginal utility of income, and “equity-weights,” intended to account for the possibility that decision makers might have disproportional concern about the welfare of the poor or other disadvantaged groups. We argue that utility-weights are appropriate and necessary to maintain the legitimacy of BCA as a measure of aggregate welfare, but that equity-weights are inappropriate because they involve moral judgments that should remain in the domain of democratically accountable decision makers, and because they conflate information about both the welfare and equity impacts of policies, making it impossible for decision-makers to apply their own moral values to the assessment of tradeoffs between welfare and equity. We offer concrete suggestions regarding the application of utility-weights and the calculation of a set of metrics to provide intuitively comprehensible and useful information about, and allow decision makers to quantitatively assess the tradeoffs between, welfare and equity caused by specific policies.

1 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article , the authors test whether the Hiding hand principle is predominantly benevolent or malevolent, and find that the Benevolent Hiding Hand is dominant in the selected World Bank-financed hydropower projects (33% v. 21%).
Abstract: This study is an attempt to determine whether the need to get hydropower project appraisals perfectly right during the pre-construction phase, so as to prevent significant overruns along with benefit shortfalls, should supersede the need to deliver projects at the earliest possible time so as to meet the needs of the people. To achieve the study objective, we test whether the Hiding Hand principle is predominantly benevolent or malevolent. We argue that if the Hiding Hand is benevolent, then project stakeholders are better off focusing on the quick delivery of power projects; however, if it is malevolent, then more attention should be given to perfecting project appraisals. It transpires from the statistical analysis that the Benevolent Hiding Hand dominates the Malevolent Hiding Hand in the selected World Bank-financed hydropower projects (33% v. 21%), and that ultimately, 75% of the projects were even more successful than anticipated—while 25% of the projects failed. Our findings further show that while a total loss of 2.335 billion USD in the sampled dams was caused by the Malevolent Hiding Hand, 11.259 billion USD was gained as a result of the Benevolent Hiding Hand. The predominance of the Benevolent Hiding Hand justifies placing some weight on proceeding with hydropower projects that show significant promise even if all the implantation risks are not fully quantified at the appraisal stage, especially in developing countries.

1 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article , the authors evaluated the benefits of land registration in Sub-Saharan Africa and found that the benefits were based on the observed 15% household wealth effect noted in the literature.
Abstract: Government is the custodian of the most critical (and limited) factor of production, namely, land. Assuring the security of tenure, arbitrating disputes, and facilitating the transfer or sales of titles renders the land market more efficient and less volatile, attracting investors and promoting sustainable urban development. Land tenure security is also a critical government service that has repercussions on agricultural productivity, housing development, business investment, and the development of urban areas. However, land administration is mired in corruptive practices, elite capture, and inefficient allocation. Globally, only 24% of rural areas are mapped (46 in urban areas), with approximately the same percentage registered, that is, 22%. In Africa, only about 14% of rural land is formally recorded in a public register. Land tenure security can take a variety of forms depending on national regulatory frameworks that allocate land and specify its use. Success stories include transferable user certificates in China and individual land titles in Rwanda. Systematic evaluation of the evidence on tenure programs demonstrates that improved tenure security increases agricultural output (40% on average), increases urban land values (25% on average), and increases household welfare (15% on average). Other observed country-specific benefits include additional years of schooling, better academic performance, access to credit, reforestation, and improved household nutrition. The costs of establishing tenure security in Sub-Saharan Africa include the separate costs of rural (US$ 3 billion) and urban (US$ 2.2 billion) land registration; the cost of digitizing land registries and information to improve efficiency and transparency (US$ 880 million), the cost of strengthening institutions and systems to resolve land disputes and manage expropriations (US$ 960 million) over a ten-year implementation period, and land administration operations and land records maintenance over 30 years (US$ 64 billion). The net present value (8%) of costs is US$ 21.7 billion for rural land tenure and US$ 5.3 billion for urban areas. The benefits of rural land registration were based on the observed 15% household wealth effect noted in the literature. The net present value (8%) of a 30-year benefits stream is US$ 396 billion. The benefit–cost ratio of completing and modernizing land registration and improving land administration coverage and effectiveness in rural Sub-Saharan Africa is 18. The benefits of urban land registration were based on the average 25% increase in property values observed in the literature. Using housing prices for the 20 largest, Sub-Saharan African countries, the net present value (8%) of the benefits over a 30-year period is US$ 237 billion, yielding a benefit–cost ratio of 45 when the average housing price is used. When the population-weighted housing price is used, benefits are valued at US$ 160 billion, yielding a benefit–cost ratio of 30.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors present new benefit-cost estimates for the Tulsa universal pre-K program, based on estimated effects, from two recent papers, of Tulsa pre-k on high-school graduation rates and college attendance rates of students who were in kindergarten in the fall of 2006.
Abstract: Abstract This paper presents new benefit–cost estimates for the Tulsa universal pre-K program. These calculations are based on estimated effects, from two recent papers, of Tulsa pre-K on high-school graduation rates and college attendance rates of students who were in kindergarten in the fall of 2006. In the current paper, educational effects from these prior papers are used to infer lifetime earnings effects. Our conservative estimates suggest that per pre-K participant, the present value of earnings effects in 2021 dollars is $25,533, compared with program costs of $9,628, for a benefit–cost ratio of 2.65. Compared to prior benefit–cost studies of Tulsa pre-K, this benefit–cost ratio is below what was predicted from Tulsa pre-K’s effects on kindergarten test scores, but above what was predicted from Tulsa pre-K’s effects on grade retention by ninth grade. This fading and recovery of predicted pre-K effects as children go through K-12 and then enter adulthood is consistent with prior research. It suggests that pre-K may have important effects on “soft skills,” such as persisting in school, and reminds us that short-term studies of pre-K provide useful information for public policy.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article , the authors present experimental evidence on workers' preferences over the form of intervention: protection (risk reduction) or insurance (cost-sharing), and elicits worker valuations of occupational health care risks, calculating the value of a statistical injury (VSI), based on local wage-risk tradeoffs, in the general range of $200,000.
Abstract: Abstract Intentional violence against healthcare workers inflicts a physical and mental toll, motivating legislative proposals to better regulate these occupational risks. This article uses this context to address two novel issues for benefit assessment raised by injuries from assailants: potential heterogeneity in valuation based on the context of the injury risk and possible reductions in self-reported valuations when the exposed population has been trained to feel responsible for the risk. This article presents experimental evidence on workers’ preferences over the form of intervention: protection (risk reduction) or insurance (cost-sharing). The experiment also elicits worker valuations of occupational health care risks, calculating the value of a statistical injury (VSI), based on local wage-risk tradeoffs, in the general range of $200,000. Workers accord a premium to risk reductions that might eliminate the risk of injuries. Both the physical harm and the process by which the injury occurs may affect benefit assessments for the regulation of workplace violence. Non-healthcare participants require a $40,000 premium per expected injury resulting from intentional harm. While health care workers do not generally require such a premium, health care workers in clinical positions require more compensation to face occupational risks. Insurance coverage for monetary losses is more highly valued than protective measures for accidental harms, though there is no significant comparable preference for insurance against intentional harms. The results have important practical implications for addressing the concerning phenomenon of violence against healthcare workers, suggesting that expanding insurance compensation would be desirable, as would assigning an intentionality premium to intentional injuries.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article used a structural gravity model to estimate the benefits and costs of increased global trade and showed that increased trade has an incredibly high benefit-cost ratio (BCR) for the developing world with an order-of-magnitude estimate for low and lower-middle-income countries of 100 and for upper middle-middle income countries of 50.
Abstract: Drawing upon recent studies that empirically estimate both the benefits and costs of trade, this paper addresses a simple and important question: By how much do the benefits of increased global trade outweigh the costs? To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to answer this question at global and World Bank income-grouping levels using empirically estimated relationships from the trade cost literature. Using a structural gravity model, we simulate changes in three primary trade constraints: a 10% reduction in tariff levels, a 10% reduction in effective distance, and a 10% increase in free trade agreement depth. The projection leads to a roughly 5% increase in global trade by value. Our model suggests that increased trade has an incredibly high benefit–cost ratio (BCR) for the developing world with an order-of-magnitude estimate for low- and lower–middle-income countries of 100 and for upper–middle-income countries of 50. However, the BCR for high-income countries is substantially lower, with a value closer to 5. Overall, the results suggest that free trade leads to substantial net benefits globally, generating US$ 700 billion in benefits (0.83% of global GDP) and US$ 100 billion in costs (0.12% of global GDP) in the first year, a differential that grows over time. Sensitivity analyses suggest that our BCRs are on the lower end of a plausible range. The results point to the incredible value of free trade, particularly for developing countries, and reiterate the importance of considering distributional impacts when implementing trade reforms.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The most cost-effective way to reduce maternal and neonatal deaths is to increase coverage of basic emergency obstetric and newborn care from 68 to 90% combined with increased family planning services in 55 low-income and lower-middle-income countries as discussed by the authors .
Abstract: Each year, 295,000 women die during and just after pregnancy, and 2.4 million babies die in the first month of their lives. In 2019, 2,160,000 neonatal deaths and 275,000 maternal deaths occurred in low-income and lower-middle-income countries alone, translating to a welfare loss equivalent to $426 billion and $36 billion for neonatal and maternal deaths, respectively. The total loss was $462 billion or almost 6 % of these countries’ combined GDP. In the sustainable development goals pledge, the world promised to reduce maternal deaths to 0.07 % and neonatal mortality to below 1.2 %, saving about 200,000 women and 1.2 million children from dying annually. However, on the current trajectory, maternal mortality is expected to decline to only 0.16 % and neonatal deaths to only 1.5 % by 2030. This article analyses the most cost-effective way to reduce maternal and neonatal deaths – Increase coverage of basic emergency obstetric and newborn care from 68 to 90 % combined with increased family planning services in 55 low-income and lower-middle-income countries which account for around 90 % of the burden of maternal and neonatal mortality globally. The proposed package will require $3.2 billion per year more investment and will deliver benefits worth $278 billion per year in avoided deaths and higher economic growth. It will also yield a demographic dividend benefit equivalent to $25 billion annually. For every $1 invested, the social and economic benefits are estimated to be $87. The benefit-cost ratio is 87.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors present an abstract for this paper and a preview of a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button in order to access the full abstract.
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article , the authors evaluated U.S. border management for 2017 and found a large expected present value net benefit per year from managed outcomes of $46.6 billion and a large residual unmanaged annual cost of $23.7 billion.
Abstract: Abstract Border management is a government activity affecting immigration and the economy. Benefit–cost and equivalent decision analyses are used to evaluate U.S. border management for 2017. Controversial issues arise. Among these are the issue of standing and the values of asylum, a criminal career, child custodial care, foreign deaths, fiscal and labor market effects, and distributional weighting. Sixteen unique shadow prices (imputed marginal value) are computed. Those shadow pries are combined with proportions and levels of border management outcomes. The aggregate result is not only a large expected present value net benefit per year from managed outcomes of $46.6 billion but also a large residual unmanaged annual cost of $23.7 billion. Significant uncertainty exists, but estimated net benefits remain positive.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors presented benefit-cost analyses of various NCD interventions in low-income and lower-middle-income (LMC) countries, including six intersectoral policies (e.g., taxes) and 24 clinical services.
Abstract: The world remains off-track for the sustainable development goal (SDG) target 3.4, which calls for a one-third reduction in noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) mortality by 2030. This paper presents benefit–cost analyses of various NCD interventions in low-income (LICs) and lower–middle-income (LMCs) countries. We looked at 30 interventions recommended by the Disease Control Priorities Project, including six intersectoral policies (e.g., taxes) and 24 clinical services. We used a previously published model to estimate intervention costs and benefits through 2030, discounted at 8%. We focused on interventions with benefit–cost ratios (BCRs) > 15 and their contribution toward achieving the SDG target. We found that intersectoral policies often provided great value for money, with BCRs ranging from 40 (trans-fat bans) to 100 (tobacco excise taxes). However, seven clinical interventions (e.g., basic treatment of cardiovascular disease or breast cancer) also had BCRs > 15. The overall population impact of clinical interventions over the 2023–2030 period would be much higher than that of the intersectoral policies, which can take many years to reach their peak effects. Fully implementing the best-investment interventions would accelerate progress toward SDG 3.4 everywhere, but only one in 10 countries would achieve the target. This strategy would require an additional US$ 2.4 billion annually across all LICs and LMCs. We conclude that there are several cost-beneficial opportunities to tackle NCDs in LICs and LMCs. In countries with very limited resources, the best-investment interventions could begin to address the major NCD risk factors and build greater health system capacity, with benefits continuing to accrue beyond 2030.

Journal ArticleDOI
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In addition to effects from greenhouse gases, climate change is affected by short-lived climate forcers (SLCF), which are often co-emitted with carbon dioxide, and some are regulated air pollutants as discussed by the authors .
Abstract: Abstract In addition to effects from greenhouse gases, climate change is affected by short-lived climate forcers (SLCF). These are often co-emitted with carbon dioxide, and some are regulated air pollutants. In the governance of these pollutants, established estimates of damage costs of pollution inform benefit–cost analyses. However, climate change impact of SLCFs is omitted from these estimates. The purpose of this study is to calculate economic damage costs of air pollutants’ effect on climate change and compare these with established damage costs. Focus is on European emissions governed in the EU National Emission Reduction Commitments Directive during 2020–2050. We use well-known SLCF emission metrics and multiply with literature values on social costs of methane to calculate climate damage costs of SLCFs. The results indicate that average absolute climate damage costs are highest for black carbon ($59,500/ton in 2050) and lowest for nonmethane volatile organic compounds ($661/ton). Our indicative values are likely underestimations. Indicative climate damage costs are usually lower than established damage costs, with notable exceptions. We propose that more detailed studies are necessary, and that inclusion of climate damage costs into economic valuation of SLCFs is important for future air pollution and climate benefit–cost analyses.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors quantify the economic benefits and costs of permitting an immediate 10% increase in the bilateral migration of skilled workers (physicians, engineers or science, engineering, technology, and mathematics workers, and other persons with advanced educations) among the nations of the African Continental Free Trade Area and, more broadly, among 25 global regions.
Abstract: Greater labor migration can establish more channels for information flows, directly contributing to faster economic growth and improved innovation and work. It can also expand international remittances, which can be invested by recipient households in home countries in education, entrepreneurship, and improved and sustainable agricultural technologies. At the same time, however, increased emigration of medical professionals and technical workers from poor countries can reduce quality of local services, innovation, health status, and productivity. This analysis attempts to quantify the economic benefits and costs of permitting an immediate 10% increase in the bilateral migration of skilled workers (physicians, engineers or science, engineering, technology, and mathematics workers, and other persons with advanced educations) among the nations of the African Continental Free Trade Area and, more broadly, among 25 global regions. Economic benefits include higher migrant incomes abroad, welfare gains in destination countries associated with higher economic efficiency, spillover productivity gains, and an improved ability of the younger and more skilled working force to support the needs of the wider population, resulting in higher national production. Benefits in source countries include productivity enhancements from two sources: (a) greater access to knowledge associated with more bilateral trade and investment and (b) the ability of local households to invest remittances in productivity-enhancing activities. Welfare losses in source nations include static efficiency reductions and a worsened demographic support capability. In Africa, the benefit-cost ratios range from 3.7 to 6.9; in the global analysis, 17 to 38.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article , the authors developed a simple theoretical model that showed that under standard assumptions the VSCC is decreasing in the chance of surviving cancer, and empirically tested this prediction by means of a stated preference survey, where they asked subjects aged 45-60 from the general population in the Czech Republic to report information about their willingness to pay (WTP) for reductions in the risk of getting cancer.
Abstract: Abstract Regulatory impact analyses of proposed environmental, occupational, and consumer product safety regulations often rely on a metric known as the Value per Statistical Case of Cancer (VSCC), that is, the public’s willingness to pay (WTP) for reductions in the risk of developing cancer. In this paper, we ask whether the VSCC depends on cancer survival prospects. We develop a simple theoretical model that shows that under standard assumptions the VSCC is decreasing in the chance of surviving cancer. We empirically test this prediction by means of a stated preference survey, where we ask subjects aged 45–60 from the general population in the Czech Republic to report information about their WTP for reductions in the risk of getting cancer. One half of the sample was told that, if they got cancer, the 5-year survival rate was 60 % (corresponding to the average survival chances across all types of cancer), while the other half was told that it was 75 %. Consistent with the theoretical model, we find that the VSCC is larger in the former group. The ratio between the VSCC of the two groups is approximately equal to the ratio between the conditional cancer mortality risks implied by the survey’s survival rates, suggesting that the VSCC is proportional to conditional cancer mortality. Our findings have important policy implications in the context of regulations that focus on pollutants linked to cancers with different chances of survival.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article , a cost-benefit analysis is used to make the investment case for the development and integration of e-government procurement (e-GP) systems in low and lower middle-income countries.
Abstract: In almost every country, government is the largest buyer of works, goods, and services from the private sector. Through the laws and practice of public procurement, governments create competition among firms, thus optimizing public expenditure. However, public procurement is often associated with inefficient allocation of resources and corruption. One method to reduce inefficiencies and abuse in public procurement is the use of e-government procurement (e-GP) platforms. Yet nearly 40% of countries—mostly low- and lower-middle income countries—do not have functioning e-GP platforms. Cost–benefit analysis is used to make the investment case for the development and integration of e-procurement systems in low- and lower middle-income countries. The costs of setting up an e- GP system include an initial investment of $9.03 million, on average, for the planning, design, and build phases spread over a 5-year period. Annual operating and maintenance expenses during pilot and deployment phases are estimated at $1.1 million annually. In total, it is estimated that the net present value of costs to design, build, test, deploy, and operate a robust e-GP system is $16.7 million for a typical low- and middle-income country (at an 8% discount rate). While there are many tangible benefits of e-GP, the benefit assessed here is the reduction in the prices of goods, works, and services paid by government buyers. Using the average percentage reduction in procurement prices of 6.75%, the savings from an e-procurement system are valued at $637.9 million and $5.2 billion for low- and lower middle-income countries, respectively. The benefit–cost ratio of implementing an e-GP system in the average low-income country ranges from 8 to 58 and is 142 to 473 for a lower middle-income country. The size of the procurement market, the reduction in procurement prices, the duration of the implementation process, and the penetration rate of e-GP throughout government are principal determinants in the return on investment.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors explore the linkages between risk assessment and benefits analysis, adding to previous work exploring these linkages for environmental health regulations, and review the practice of safety benefits analysis for federal transportation regulations in the USA.
Abstract: We review the practice of safety benefits analysis for federal transportation regulations in the USA. Using a case-study approach, we explore the linkages between risk assessment and benefits analysis, adding to previous work exploring these linkages for environmental health regulations. Challenges for calculating the benefits of transportation safety regulations arise because safety outcomes, like many noncancer health effects, typically do not have formal risk relationships like dose–response functions established for them. Analysts often rely on engineering or other expert judgments or resort to qualitative discussions to connect a regulatory intervention to its intended outcome. Challenges also arise when regulatory outcomes are intangible or do not have established metrics. Safety outcomes are not always measurable in concrete terms like mortality risk and may include difficult-to-operationalize concepts like “safety culture.” If the outcome is not measurable, then quantifying or monetizing the expected effects of a regulation is not possible, and the ability to conduct robust qualitative discussions also may be limited. Economists evaluating benefits for safety regulations encounter limitations analogous to difficulties found in health regulations. To inform policymaking effectively, economists and safety experts could look to the relationship developed in environmental economics between economists and health scientists.