Showing papers in "Journal of Futures Studies in 2010"

Timeline 22-Step Model for Tracking and Forecasting Public Policy Change

Abstract: Things don't just happen. A cascade of incremental developments and pressures coalesce and help to shape destiny. Basically, this article probes and describes ”causes and effects.” Fully mapped out and deployed, this 22-step rubric of change pattern strives to assemble an array of forces that cumulatively plot and reveal impending public policy change. These constructs of change manifest fundamental quantitatively measured components assembled into arrays of integral sub-set steps that drive change of most any sort. Many of the change drivers presented apply to forecasting matters other than public policy.

Implementing a student-centred learning approach at Vietnamese higher education institutions: Barriers under layers of Casual Layered Analysis (CLA)

Abstract: This article applies Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) (Inayatullah, 2004) as a framework to examine factors that affect applying a student-centered learning approach in Vietnam. The Four layers of CLA help disclose weaknesses in the current traditional learning approach, causes that create the problems and hidden beliefs that keep traditional perceptions about learning permanent. The results reveal that changing the students' present learning approach to student-centeredness does not need a new collection of principles to be imposed on learners. Rather, there need to be changes in both school infrastructures and people's perceptions. Further studies need to be conducted to determine how to implement these changes so that the new approach can be implanted successfully in the local context.

Is Our Monetary Structure a Systemic Cause for Financial Instability? Evidence and Remedies from Nature

Abstract: Fundamental laws govern all complex flow systems, including natural ecosystems, economic and financial systems. Natural ecosystems are practical exemplars of sustainability: enduring, vital, adaptive. The sustainability of any complex flow system can be measured with a single metric as an emergent property of its structural diversity and interconnectivity; it requires a balance in emphasis between efficiency and resilience. The urgent message for economics from nature is that the monoculture of national currencies, justified on the basis of market efficiency, generates structural instability in our global financial system. Economic sustainability therefore requires diversification in types of currencies, specifically through complementary currencies.

Intersections of Strategic Planning and Futures Studies: Methodological Complementarities

Abstract: Two apparently independent management disciplines – Strategic Planning and Futures Studies --are converging through joint application in practice and their literatures. The two disciplines enhance each other; yet, in the academic community, they remain largely detached and ignorant of each other. The primary purpose of this article is to acknowledge and explore the methodological intersections and complementarities of Strategic Planning and Futures Studies. In the academy, Strategic Planning was the predecessor of contemporary Strategic Management. But, Strategic Planning was essentially abandoned by the academy in the 1980s. Subsequently, a new community of strategic planning methodologists – comprised largely of futurists – emerged. Futures studies have enabled strategists to use planning models more productively by clarifying vital issues such as impending and potential changes in economic, industry and market structures; drivers of rivalry; technology; and supply/demand balances. Concurrently, the strategic planning model provides a structure for integrating and organizing the many methods and techniques that are used by futurists. Thus, Futures Studies and Strategic Planning are highly complementary. A second purpose of this article therefore is to stimulate a more productive conversation between these two disciplines and to encourage their collaboration in the academy.

Nano dreams and nightmares: emerging technoscience and the framing and (re)interpreting of the future, present and past

Abstract: Imagined nanotechnology futures are polarised between utopian dreams and apocalyptic nightmares. This paper provides an introduction to nanotechnology, a highly complex research and policy realm, and the contesting of "nano-futures". How the future and past are mobilised during the development of emerging technologies is of particular interest. Drawing on work in the field of Science and Technology Studies, which distinguishes between 'looking into' and 'looking at' the future, nanotechnology's intensely future-oriented dynamic is assessed. These dynamics have implications for the understanding of change processes and images of the future, as well as for constructive engagement with "nanotechnology".

Risk Mysterianism and Cognitive Boosters

Abstract: In this paper, I argue that cognitive enhancements could increase our ability to analyze and control risks, most importantly existential risks. Towards this end, I identify two significant constraints on our ability to evaluate/neutralize such risks, one of which concerns the problem's type and the other its size (or complexity). I provide two examples of these constraints, and examine how enhancements could help overcome each.

Why Teach the Future

Abstract: Subjects taught in school change with the times. Educated Romans learned Latin at home, but learning Greek as a second language enabled them to read the philosophy and science of their day. The medieval university taught seven subjects – the trivium (grammar, logic and rhetoric) and the quadrivium (arithmetic, geometry, music and astronomy) as foundations for the advanced study of philosophy and theology. Physical science entered the curriculum in the 17 th and 18 centuries; biology followed in the 19 th and social science in the 20 . Penmanship was an important subject for a long time, but now students learn keyboarding and computer literacy. Ideally, the curriculum prepares students for participation in the world they will join as adults.

Multidisciplinary and Interdisciplinary Approaches to Futures Education

Abstract: The rich tapestry, breadth, and intricate interconnections between the topic of the future and the myriad dimensions of human reality afford the opportunity to teach the future and enhance future consciousness through multiple academic disciplines. In this paper I describe a variety of interdisciplinary and multi-disciplinary approaches to futures education. I draw upon both the distinctive methods and content areas of these various disciplines. I present these approaches to futures education in a narrative form, explaining and chronicling how each of them has emerged in my teaching over the years. The educational approaches are not incompatible and can be used in combination with each other in a variety of educational venues.

Forest Futures: A Causal Layered Analysis

Abstract: This article employs Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), a futures methodology, to deconstruct Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, or REDD; an emergent aspect of United Nations Climate Change negotiations. In light of this CLA, I question whether this global policy framework is likely to bring about transformative forest futures or simply reproduce (or even worsen) the historical conditions complicit in deforestation.

Multiple narratives of the futures of the global financial crisis

Abstract: While the Australian Financial Reviewreports that \"We're in the money: it's party time again\" (Kahler, 2009, p.3), others are far less certain that the global financial crisis is really over. Indeed, economics professor Nouriel Roubin, one of the few to accurately forecast the financial crisis, believes that \"the outlook is precarious under the best of circumstances\" (Walker, 2009, p.24). Moreover, now that the stimulus option has disappeared, few policy alternatives are left at the national level. Lena Komileva, an economist with British firm, Tullett Prebon, writes \"The foundation of the global economy remains unstable even if the cracks have been smoothed over and we are happy to forget what lies beneath the heavy layer of public sector's liquidity insurance\" (Kaiser, 2010, online). Abstract

Leading from the Future: A Review of the Regent Foresight Program

Abstract: In 2006 Regent University launched a Master of Arts in Strategic Foresight, and in 2007 added a foresight major to its Doctor of Strategic Leadership. In doing so, Regent joined a small group of academic programs worldwide that offer graduate professional degrees based on futures studies. To encourage further improvement and adoption of future focused degrees and majors at the graduate level, this paper discusses this program from three facets: (a) what Regent received from the futures community, (b) what Regent added to the paradigm of strategic foresight, and (c) how Regent presently assesses student learning and program outcomes.

Speculative Stem Cell Futures: Some Prospective Commercial Models for Induced Pluripotent Stem (iPS) Cell Based Therapies

Abstract: Billed for over a decade now as potentially providing revolutionary new treatment protocols in biomedicine, the development of clinical therapies from human embryonic stem (hES) cells has faced significant barriers. The recent discovery of induced pluripotent stem cells (iPS) in 2006 however is widely seen to go part-way towards overcoming at least some of these barriers. But to what extent does the use of iPS cells instead of hES cells increase the potential for the prospective development of clinical products from pluripotent stem cells? In particular, what would a commercial model for iPS cell based therapies look like?

The New Oregon Model: Envision→Plan→Achieve

Abstract: Journal of Futures Studies, November 2010, 15(2): 163 166 Many of today's community visioning projects can trace their work back to futurist Alvin Toffler and his concept of \"anticipatory democracy\" – the notion that governance can evolve and adapt to change whilst engaging citizens in the process. In practice, anticipatory democracy blends elements of futures research, long-range planning, grassroots public participation, and, ideally, a healthy measure of creativity. As an adjunct to traditional community planning, visioning promotes greater awareness of societal change and deeper citizen involvement. It can also provide communities with a stronger sense of control over their destinies, bringing citizens together in a uniquely different context to consider their common future. And it explicitly encourages them to explore new ideas and possibilities. Essentially, visioning is a planning process through which any community creates a shared vision for its future and begins to make that vision a reality. It provides an overlay for local plans, policies, and decisions, as well as a guide to concrete actions in the wider community. In the English-speaking world, cities of all kinds from Blue Mountains, NSW to Bradford, U.K., Hamilton, Ontario to Hilo, Hawaii, have employed a wide range of visioning approaches and techniques. Based on two decades of working with many such processes, I have concluded that the most successful visioning efforts share five key characteristics.

Is sustainability the enemy of progress or the key to creating a future worth having? Three provocative perspectives on sustainability, climate change and the future

Abstract: This review article of recent books on sustainability and climate change provides an overview and comparison of three provocative responses to the contemporary sustainability problematique. Current and potentially emerging ways of thinking about sustainability, climate change and the future are revealed. In particular, considered together the three books bring to life the huge social inertia resisting worldview change and the related politics of change and the future associated with sustainability. Following critical consideration of underlying key themes, different ways of reading the books to derive insights into sustainability challenges and in terms of futures studies are suggested.

The Cross as Metaphor for Cross-Cultural Education

Abstract: The futurist employs time, especially future time, to transform the present. And 'when we get the direction right, that is 50 % of the story' (Inayatullah, 2009). This article is written for educators whose cross-cultural contexts challenge them to go beyond traditional forms of theory, presentation and method and face another direction. Ancient shapes such as the dot, the circle, the cross and the square (Chevalier & Gheerbrant, 1996) are neutral in themselves but culturally interpreted. Though the 'cross' is neutral in itself, cross-culturally it represents the dominant litany of Western theory, the masculinist myth of a unidirectional world, and the idea that crucifixion comes first and hope and transformation second. Cross-cultural education ignores the impact of the 'cross', which if surrounded with the circle symbolises the Earth (Milojevic, 1999) as Gaia (Lovelock, 2001). This cultural blindness frustrates educational change. A focus on the cross and the dynamics at its heart opens the gaze to the space between in an eye to eye (I to I) meeting: the 'cross' becomes a 'tracking device' and like an hourglass, an unlimited device for people to move through and out of geophilosophical baggage and into a fresh and open space.

Book Review: The Empathic Civilization: The Race to Global Consciousness in a World in Crisis

Abstract: Journal of Futures Studies, November 2010, 15(2): 189 192 Jeremy Rifkin has been delighting audiences for years with a series of fine books on major issues of the day, and this latest book of his is outstanding in many ways. It is erudite yet easy to read, and it addresses big problems, such as global warming, energy, and climate change. Rifkin's theme is the rise of empathyin a world struggling to avoid the chaos of runaway entropy, one of his favorite concepts. The scope of the book is vast, charting the evolution of human consciousness from the rise of \"mythological consciousness\" in primitive tribal societies, to \"theological\" or \"faith-based consciousness\" in the agrarian Dark Ages, and \"ideological consciousness\" introduced by the Age of Reason. Rifkin argues that \"The evidence shows that we are witnessing the greatest surge in empathic extension in all of human history.\" (p.452). This claim is supported by a wealth of data and examples running through the ages. The author explains how the theories of Freud, Hobbes, Darwin, Descartes, Kant, Locke, Rousseau, Schopenhauer, and other philosophers travelled this long journey to better understand \"human nature.\" The historic background behind all these developments is also described in loving detail – the ancient agrarian civilizations of Summer and Egypt, the rise and fall of Rome, Christianity and the Reformation, the Enlightenment, Romanticism, Industrialization. Rifkin focuses on tracing how major breakthroughs advanced this uncharted frontier of the mind – the rise of the conscious individual, love in marriage, invention of the printing press, electricity and the telegraph, impressionist art, and today's information technology (IT) revolution. Although The Empathic Civilizationdazzles with facts and insights, it often leaves one wondering how much of the central argument is really true. It would be salvation to believe that people will shed their innate selfishness and combativeness, but is it realistic to think that empathy alone will do the trick? Rifkin describes powerful forces moving us toward greater empathy, like the influence of a knowledge society, the imperative for collaboration to govern a complex world, the inclusive values of a Millennial generation, and the sobering threat of global warming and climate change. These

Futures Literacy in New Zealand

Abstract: The FutureMakers project presented a unique opportunity to explore conditions for the acquisition "futures literacy" in New Zealand. It was a collaboration between Landcare Research; the Institute of Policy Studies, Victoria University of Wellington; and Secondary Futures, OECD Schooling for Tomorrow/Ministry of Education. The project deliberately used open processes and intentionally generated both predictive and nonpredictive futuring products. By observing the experiences and reactions of participants and end-users, the project identified current levels of futures capability and "next questions" for building futures literacy in New Zealand. The learners' experience is at the centre of these questions.

Measuring what Matters to Make a Difference

Abstract: Journal of Futures Studies, November 2010, 15(2): 151 154 \"Too much and for too long, we seem to have surrendered personal excellence and community values in the mere accumulation of material things. Our Gross National Product now is over $800 billion dollars a year, but that Gross National Product ... counts air pollution and cigarette advertising, and ambulances to clear our highways of carnage. It counts special locks for our doors and the jails for the people who break them. It counts the destruction of the redwood and the loss of our natural wonder in chaotic sprawl. It counts napalm and counts nuclear warheads and armored cars for the police to fight the riots in our cities. It counts Whitman's rifle and Speck's knife. And the television programs which glorify violence in order to sell toys to our children. Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials. It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country, it measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile.\" – Senator Robert Kennedy, Speech to the University of Kansas, March 18, 1968.

Remedies to Global Crisis: "Allopathic" or "Homeopathic"? Metaphorical Complementarity of "Conventional" and "Alternative" Models

Abstract: Explores the metaphorical discourse regarding the ”health” of economic and financial systems in the light of the discourse in health care concerning the appropriateness of conventional medical approaches in contrast with ”alternative” or ”complementary” therapies. Common to the discourse in both cases are forms of denial, deception and demonisation, as well as concerns with remedy, recovery and replicability. The question raised is whether, as in the case of health care, it is more fruitful to explore an appropriate mix of both conventional and alternative approaches to ensure the health of the global financial system. Chinese experience of such a mix in the case of health care is cited as a guide to possible future relevance to more effective approaches to the financial system.

A Course on Foresight for Sponsors and Practitioners

Abstract: Foresight, its theoretical and practical underpinnings, has been a core part of the work of the Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (formerly PREST – see Endnotes) for the past two decades. In 1999, a training course, encapsulating PREST's experience, was launched for 'sponsors, organizers and practitioners'. The evolution of this course over the past ten years is described in this essay which also indicates how the course became internationally recognized with participants attending from 40 different countries. The way the course has also influenced the evolution of other and similar courses globally is also discussed.

Sustainability and Executive Education: A Call for a New Model

Abstract: This paper will specifically address the role of business schools and attempt to provide some thoughts and ideas as to how business schools can adapt and lead by taking an educational leadership role in climate change and sustainability in general. The emerging business case for sustainability now finds that it is required to include both profit improvement opportunities and risk mitigation requirements. New market forces are creating new profit opportunities and threatening companies' social license to operate. A smart sustainability strategy address both and is why for climate change adaption the vision that sustainability makes good business sense is one that universities, and particularly their business schools, would be well advised to adopt. Marie Eiter who was the principal investigator for the UNICON (Universities Consortium) research study 'Investigating Innovations in Curriculum Design' (December, 2009) began the report stating:

Taking the Future to the Community

Abstract: How do you introduce and expand futures education at a community college? This article discusses IF@AACC which was established at Anne Arundel Community College in 2003 to promote futures thinking and the art of foresight. The Institute has recruited and deployed an inter-disciplinary faculty team and participants from the community to develop and support several futures programs. Included are academic courses in Exploring the Future and Globalization and its Future, professional education for faculty and staff and for secondary school teachers. The Institute works with 3(superscript rd)-5(superscript th) graders but has also conducted training workshops for the National Intelligence Community.

What Kind of Crisis Is It

Abstract: Different explanations have been offered for the global financial crisis, reflecting different worldviews and different interpretative frames. This short paper uses an initial analysis based on understanding the crisis as the conjunction of a number of different-but overlapping-S-curves, of different lengths, to understand systemically the depth of the crisis. These curves include a finance S-curve, a technology S-curve, an energy Scurve, and a 'modernity' curve. However, while S-curves are a useful analytical tool, they are not integrative and they lack a narrative of transition from the tail of one curve to the start of the next. The authors explore the value of the 'panarchy' model, better known as a model for the behaviour of ecological systems, as a way to understand the transitions caused by the global financial crisis and some of the implications for policy makers.

From Illness to Health: Mapping the Futures of the Global Financial Crisis

Abstract: This symposium on the global financial crisis moves from the official headlines, focused on the duration and extent of the Great recession, to deeper systems and narrative based understandings of the crisis and the worldview that has created it. The authors offer a range of alternative perspectives to describe the crisis, generally moving away from financial to ecological, health and scenario approaches. The symposium consists of two articles and three essays.

Statisticians: New Champions for the Future?

Abstract: Statisticians measure the progress of societies. Like the invisible rudder of an ocean liner, statistics help policy-makers to steer their ships of state. Now statisticians are saying that prevailing measures, especially the dominance of economic indicators like the GDP, are steering us the wrong way. Before they can propose better indicators, however, they must know what our progress is towards. Only the citizens can legitimately decide that, they say, so we must ask communities to describe the futures they want. Can the futurists help? This feature explores their exciting challenge and asks, how will we respond? The old way, with competition in the marketplace? Or the new way, with collaboration and cooperation? As well as collaboration between futurists and statisticians, it proposes a prior collaboration between futurists around the world to develop a best practice community visioning toolkit that is endorsed by leading practitioners.

Alternative Futures for Academic Libraries

Abstract: This work summarizes key findings of a futures research project conducted in Spring 2010 for the Association of College and Research Libraries. The researchers created 26 short scenarios on the future of higher education and surveyed academic librarians about their perceptions of probability, impact, speed of change, and threat/opportunity potential of each scenario. They aggregated the judgment of this large group and situated the responses in a ”scenario space” visualization tool, which encourages and manages collective imagination.

Enlisting Futures Studies in a Democratic Vision of Progress

Abstract: Human advance is conditioned by our conception of progress ... [It is time to end] the mismeasure of human progress by economic growth alone. The paradigm shift in favour of sustainable human development is still in the making. But more and more policy makers in many countries are reaching the unavoidable conclusion that, to be valuable and legitimate, development progress — both nationally and internationally — must be people centred, equitably distributed, and environmentally and socially sustainable. (UNDP, 1996)