Showing papers in "Policy Sciences in 1972"
TL;DR: In this article, a socio-political process, an administrative task, a follow-on from systematic analysis, a problem in the diffusion and utilization of knowledge, and a basic capacity which is differentially distributed among organizations and subject to deliberate change is examined.
Abstract: Implementation, from which flows operational policy, is an integral part of the policymaking process. This phenomenon is examined briefly as a socio-political process, an administrative task, a follow-on from systematic analysis, a problem in the diffusion and utilization of knowledge, and a basic capacity which is differentially distributed among organizations and subject to deliberate change. A three-dimensional framework for assessing the nature of implementation tasks and for making strategic choices in planning implementation is proposed and illustrated. Finally, implementation processes in a federalistic system are described as requiring multi-level participation of four classes of participants: administrative-bureaucratic, political leadership, rational-analytic and constituent elites. A variety of functions must be performed at federal, regional, and local levels to assure policy execution consistent with both policy designs and local contingencies.
45 citations
40 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the specifications for an electronic technology that will allow masses of citizens to have discussions with each other, and which will enable them to reach group decisions without leaving their homes are presented.
Abstract: This paper presents the specifications for an electronic technology that will allow masses of citizens to have discussions with each other, and which will enable them to reach group decisions without leaving their homes. Specifications of the components needed are enumerated and a concrete system suggested. Possible variations and other uses of the system are explored.
29 citations
TL;DR: A survey of current approaches to forecasting attempts to discuss the state of the art and potentials for further development in this light can be found in this article, where the authors provide a proper perspective for the meaningful use of formalized approach to forecasting.
Abstract: Long-range forecasting for social systems deals with complex feedback interactions between all sectors and elements of such systems, and thus inherently implies facing the challenge of the systems approach. The latter may be characterized as an attempt to understand the self-organizing behavior of social systems and to grasp its potential dynamic implications. A survey of current approaches to forecasting attempts to discuss the state of the art and potentials for further development in this light. Many modelling approaches—in particular econometrics—are inherently restricted to mechanistic modes of behavior. Formalized man-technique interaction—for which innovative approaches have become known—may aid forecasting for adaptive modes of system behavior; computer simulation of structural models has considerable potential in this area. Finally, forecasting techniques may be applied so as to stimulate human inventive thinking. The systems approach provides the proper perspective for the meaningful use of formalized approaches to forecasting.
16 citations
TL;DR: Examples and variations on strategic models for representing the process of merging records from different sources when confidentiality of the records is required by law or custom are presented.
Abstract: This report presents, discusses and extends strategic models for representing the process of merging records from different sources when confidentiality of the records is required by law or custom. Examples and variations on the models cover simple situations, such as eliciting anonymous data from previously identified respondents, as well as more complex merge operations, such as merging files from different data archives and merging data under code linkage systems. The versatility and potential corruptibility of the models are also discussed.
16 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors review the difficulties of initiating and completing interdisciplinary research involving both bio-physical and social systems and make specific suggestions for the conduct and design of such projects.
Abstract: This paper reviews some of the difficulties of initiating and completing interdisciplinary research involving both bio-physical and social systems. Drawing on the author's experience as project director of a large interdisciplinary project concerned with man's effects on Lake Tahoe, it includes a structural analysis of the organization of universities which has the effect of inhibiting interdisciplinary research. Specific suggestions for the conduct and design of such projects are made. The political implications of recent changes in national science policy are also reviewed.
16 citations
TL;DR: This article examined whether various measures of public policies have significant effect in reducing serious crimes and in suppressing the upward trends of crime rates in the 50 largest U.S. cities in recent years.
Abstract: By utilizing the multiple regression technique, this paper examines whether various measures of public policies have significant effect in reducing serious crimes and in suppressing the upward trends of crime rates in the 50 largest U.S. cities in recent years. The public policies examined are two conceptually distinct types—control and service policies. The control policies refer to those policies directly concerned with law enforcement and administration of justice, while the service policies are those policies which are designed to promote the general well-being and amenities in the community. The crime indicators used are the so-called “index crime” as reported by the FBI.
15 citations
TL;DR: The authors assesses the role program evaluation can play in assisting decisions on public programs and analyzes some of the problems decisionmakers face in trying to get reliable, useful evaluation, and concludes that evaluation from the standpoint of decisionmakers interested in finding out the "right" answers about their programs can be helpful.
Abstract: This paper assesses the role program evaluation can play in assisting decisions on public programs. The author looks at evaluation from the standpoint of decisionmakers interested in finding out the “right” answers about their programs. The discussion focuses on the assistance that various types of evaluation can give to program managers and to policymakers concerned with legislative changes and budget levels. The paper includes recent examples of relevant evaluation work. The concluding section analyzes some of the problems decisionmakers face in trying to get reliable, useful evaluation.
10 citations
TL;DR: For example, the authors argue that theories of social change which deal only with social conditions, behavioral interchanges or transactions, and the material environment, are likely to be unsuccessful because they ignore the mental side of life.
Abstract: If we agree that social indicators indicate or measure only within the context of a theory of social change, and if we further assume that theories of social change which deal only with social conditions, behavioral interchanges or transactions, and the material environment, are likely to be unsuccessful because they ignore the “mental” side of life, it follows that we will want our theories of social change, and the social indicators associated with them, to incorporate the cultural and group psychological aspects of social behavior.
9 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors suggest that an important factor affecting the style of decisionmakers is their perception of change and that an environment perceived as relatively stable or gradually changing will elicit incremental decision processes, while decisionmakers finding themselves subjected to rapid change in a turbulent environment may adopt a decision mode called entrepreneurial.
Abstract: Decision models which aspire to generality are weak since they must be divorced from any societal environment, or assume universality for one form of society. The former is the case with normative rational models, the latter with descriptive ones such as incrementalism. To assume that decision modes vary in response to environmental factors might be a more fruitful basis for analysis. This is the point of departure for the present paper, which offers a conceptual framework independent ofa priori assumptions about the decisionmaker's environment. Among hypotheses which are presented on the relationships between environmental and decision variables, is the suggestion that an important factor affecting the style of decisionmakers is their perception of change. An environment perceived as relatively stable or gradually changing will elicit incremental decision processes, while decisionmakers finding themselves subjected to rapid change in a turbulent environment may adopt a decision mode called entrepreneurial. This is distinguished from the incremental mode by, among other characteristics, its greater propensity for risk.
7 citations
TL;DR: For almost four years New York City and the Rand Corporation have been engaged in an enterprise distinctive if not unique: the subjection of a wide variety of the City's problems to the scrutiny of independent analysts.
Abstract: For almost four years New York City and the Rand Corporation have been engaged in an enterprise distinctive if not unique: the subjection of a wide variety of the City's problems to the scrutiny of independent analysts. This paper* is the attempt of a participant in that enterprise to describe the background of that effort and the novel arrangements made to institutionalize it, to outline the nature and effect of the analyses produced, and then to reflect on some of the lessons this effort has taught some of its participants.
TL;DR: In this article, a preliminary research framework for analysis of national policy alternatives is defined, including values, goals, attainments, strategies, societal processes, and societal indicators, and an outline is given of the principal research problems to be addressed.
Abstract: The domain of interest is goal formation and policy planning at the national level. A preliminary research framework for analysis of national policy alternatives is defined. Included are the following basic elements: values, goals, attainments, strategies, societal processes, and societal indicators. Using this conceptual structure as a point of departure, an outline is given of the principal research problems to be addressed. Other possible applications of the framework are also described.
TL;DR: In this paper, societal factors are identified which are driving toward qualitative and quantitative changes in the pattern of crime in the United States and some opportunities and needs for public policy decisions and related research are suggested.
Abstract: Societal factors are identified which are driving toward qualitative and quantitative changes in the pattern of crime in the United States. Some of these factors will amplify while others will diminish the importance of current categories of crime. They will also lead to new crimes or increased relative significance to certain crime categories. On the other hand, the interaction of these factors also may lead to the virtual extinguishment of some crimes or to their removal from the rosters of illegality. Against that background some opportunities and needs for public policy decisions and related research are suggested.
[...]
TL;DR: Demospeciocracy as discussed by the authors proposes integration of both democratic and scientific values in a multi-leveled system and presents nine different, but interdependent, agencies needed for the system: initiators, steerers, researchers, informers, examiners, voting supervisors, planners, judges, and administrators.
Abstract: Rapidly growing interdependence of government policy decisionmaking and multiplying varieties of specialized knowledge, on the one hand, and continuing decline in democracy due to increasing distances between voter and the effective act of deciding, on the other, pressure political scientists to devise a more adequate system. Demospeciocracy proposes integration of both democratic and scientific values in a multi-leveled system. After discussing six assumed principles, the article presents nine different, but interdependent, agencies needed for the system: initiators, steerers, researchers, informers, examiners, voting supervisors, planners, judges, and administrators, and concludes with suggestions about how to introduce them.
TL;DR: In this article, a basic framework that potentially accommodates the interactions of all biological, biosocial, cultural and situational determinants of behavior is presented, and a single structure of interactions for all problems increases the additive possibilities of the field, and makes feasible definition of the limits and applicability of alternative general theories.
Abstract: It is possible to construct a basic framework that potentially accommodates the interactions of all biological, biosocial, cultural and situational determinants of behavior. While specific problems will require changes of detail, a single structure of interactions for all problems increases the additive possibilities of the field, and makes feasible definition of the limits and applicability of alternative general theories. The framework should help the applied social scientist relate his suggestions to the full range of interactions.
TL;DR: In this article, an inquiry is made into California's efforts to utilize the blessings of science and systematic analysis in formulating public policy, and four alternate sources of scientific and analytic help have received the State's attention: profit-seeking firms, not-for-profit research organizations, universities, and in-house scientific staffs or advisory boards.
Abstract: An inquiry is made into California's efforts to utilize the blessings of science and systematic analysis in formulating public policy. Four alternate sources of scientific and analytic help have received the State's attention: profit-seeking firms, not-for-profit research organizations, universities, and in-house scientific staffs or advisory boards. Potentialities and limitations of each of the four sources are reviewed.
TL;DR: The Program for Urban and Policy Sciences (UPS) at the State University of New York at Stony Brook as mentioned in this paper has been the operating policy of the Program to direct its principal research activities to real and immediate problems facing state and local governments in the New York area.
Abstract: There is a growing interest within universities in the operation of state and local governments, and in the services they provide. An example of this interest is the Program for Urban and Policy Sciences (UPS) at the State University of New York at Stony Brook. Since its inception two years ago, it has been the operating policy of the Program to direct its principal research activities to real and immediate problems facing state and local governments in the New York area. In each of the collaborative efforts undertaken with an outside agency, we have seen our role as that of both problem analysts and catalytic agents for bringing about change. This means our faculty and students actively participate in the policy formulation and policy implementation processes. A case study of a cooperative effort undertaken with the Environmental Protection Administration of New York City illustrates these ideas. We believe that a successful university program should combine research with real world experience; the university should encourage the faculty to broaden the scope of their activities; and students, particularly those from minorities, should be trained for professional careers as planning and program analysts.
TL;DR: In this paper, an alternative acquisition strategy to that used in the 1960s in the United States is recommended for the next decade: (1) incremental acquisition, based on a sequence of decision points and a succession of development and production phases; and (2) pronounced austerity in early development phases.
Abstract: A comparison of 20 years of aircraft production in Europe and America. U.S. cost increases in the system acquisition process have resulted in large part from unforeseen (sometimes unforseeable) engineering difficulties in the development phase, and from substantial production commitment before development was complete. Common European strategy completed basic development before beginning production and demonstrated utility through prototypes, using early proof-testing of engines, electronics and airframes. An alternative acquisition strategy to that used in the 1960s in the United States is recommended for the next decade: (1) incremental acquisition, based on a sequence of decision points and a succession of development and production phases; and (2) pronounced austerity in early development phases. These changes would result in lessened cost growth and lower U.S. acquisition costs, as well as in improved predictability of schedule and system performance outcomes.
TL;DR: The general problem of interdisciplinary relations and transdisciplinary integration has its counterpart in the field of education in the problem of producing generalists rather than specialists, and at the undergraduate college level, in the task of devising a rational core curriculum.
Abstract: The general problem of interdisciplinary relations and transdisciplinary integration has its counterpart in the field of education in the problem of producing generalists rather than specialists, and at the undergraduate college level, in the problem of devising a rational core curriculum. At present, neither the student nor the faculty knows why one mixture of courses is better or worse than another.
TL;DR: In this article, decision-making under uncertainty is visualized as a game against nature, where the policymaker is confronted with a variety of possible states of nature that may evolve after his decision is made.
Abstract: Decisionmaking under uncertainty is visualized as a game against nature. The policymaker is the player and has a set of alternatives or strategies from which he desires to choose the most effective. He is confronted with a variety of possible states of nature that may evolve after his decision is made. The key states of nature are identified and their interactive relationship to the strategy options are specified. Important roles in the resulting analysis are played by the probabilities of successful project initiation and implementation. It is shown that neglect of the inherent uncertainty aspects leads to evaluations (benefit-cost ratios) of proposed reforms and projects which can be seriously upward biased.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that adding more of the existing types of technologies and manufacturing processes to the world's capital stock, through efforts to industrialize underdeveloped economies, increases the pollution and degradation of the world-wide socio-economic-environmental organization (WSEEO).
Abstract: Jay W. Forrester has shown that computer simulation indicates that the intuitive models usually invoked to deal with planning contingencies lead to basically erroneous results. This is because the real world systems, of which the web of socio-economic-environmental organization (WSEEO) is now, perhaps, of major significance to the future of man, are multi-loop, nonlinear feedback systems whose structures run counter to the intuitive, simplistic models usually invoked for studying and dealing with our global, environmental problems. In addition, planning and policymaking also frequently ignore “system breaks” that have rendered the models invoked obsolescent and non-isomorphic to the segment of the real world with which a planner is concerned. Planning models are needed that will change with time, in recognition of the system breaks that are occurring, sometimes over relatively short periods. These system breaks often lead to unstable parameters in the more simplistic models employed. The important task in planning and policymaking is to capture accurately the structures of the complex systems for which we are trying to plan. In this sense the determination of the particular values of the parameters of our models is less important than the task of developing models that approximate the real-world structure with ever greater, structural precision. In the case of developmental, economic planning, we find that adding more of the existing types of technologies and manufacturing processes to the world's capital stock, through efforts to industrialize underdeveloped economies, increases the pollution and degradation of the world-wide WSEEO. This adds another pitfall to developmental planning which—if it is to escape contributing to pollution and degradation of the WSEEO—must avoid the conventional, currently existing capital-stock framework. Appropriate, developmental planning must try to develop technologies and modes of industrialization that reduce global pollution and ecological degradation and which, at the same time, minimize the amount of unrecycled waste poured into local regions of the planet's environment. In short, models for planning and policy-making must more and more be of the multi-loop, nonlinear type and must incorporate unconventional technologies and industrial processes not of the type that is commonly found in the West. Some of the basic objectives and requirements of such models for the planning and policy sciences are briefly suggested by the author.
TL;DR: The role of the New York City Rand Institute and other research groups in the rent control reforms was described in this paper, which summarizes the major research and analytical studies performed in this connection by Institute staff members.
Abstract: This document describes the role of the New York City Rand Institute and other research groups in the rent control reforms enacted by the New York City Council in June 1970, summarizes the major research and analytical studies performed in this connection by Institute staff members, and offers some lessons for those contemplating similar work for public agencies.
TL;DR: Civilian health and the number of physicians during the period of national mobilization in the U.S. in the 1940's is surveyed, where low physician/population ratios prevailed for several years.
Abstract: Federal and state government efforts to improve the nation's health focus particular attention on the necessity of increasing the numbers of physicians. Yet, evidence from several studies suggest weak linkages between health and the number of physicians. The present study surveys civilian health and the number of physicians during the period of national mobilization in the U.S. in the 1940's. This period, where low physician/population ratios prevailed for several years, is unique in recent history and provides a useful reference for current health policy. Reduced numbers of physicians are shown to have had a measurable negative impact on civilian health over the period.
TL;DR: In this paper, a model for determining optimal resource allocations among programs having counteractive outcomes is presented, where values, reflecting priorities, need to be assigned to the various objectives that programs are intended to accomplish and an ensemble of probabilistic functions relating resources to program outcomes needs to be specified and combined.
Abstract: Difficulties have been encountered in attempting to apply benefit-cost analysis to the problem of determining resource allocations among social programs, especially when there are multiple outcomes associated with each of the programs. Further complications result when program outcomes are characterized as counteractive: a specific allocation of resources to a program is likely to achieve a favorable impact regarding certain objectives while that allocation is also likely to have an unfavorable impact regarding other objectives. A model which promises to be useful in determining optimal resource allocations among programs having counteractive outcomes is presented. Two steps are required for the use of the model: (1) values, reflecting priorities, need to be assigned to the various objectives that programs are intended to accomplish and (2) an ensemble of probabilistic functions relating resources to program outcomes needs to be specified and combined to reflect the value of an ensemble of programs. In addition to determining optimal resource allocations, the model provides insights into the consequences of resource decisions based on noneconomic considerations. An example illustrates the major features of the model.