Showing papers in "Population and Development Review in 1986"

Routes to low mortality in poor countries.

Abstract: This paper examines how certain populations have achieved low mortality and whether these methods might be utilized by other poor populations. Mortality levels are examined relative to income levels for Third World countries classified as either superior health achievers or poor health achievers; other variables examined are population density family planning use religion and educational level. 3 societies with exceptionally low mortality are Sri Lanka Kerala India) and Costa Rica; these 3 settings are examples of successful "breakthrough" health programs. Similarities among the 3 include a substantial degree of female autonomy dedication to education an open political system a largely civilian society with no rigid class structure and a history of egalitarianism and radicalism. All 3 populations are small; dense settlement and widely diffused commercial farming in rural areas demonstrated in these 3 regions appear to favor reduction in rural-urban mortality levels. Breakthrough periods are identified for each of the societies when provision of health services was implemented on a large scale. In rural areas the primary health center is a base for midwives and health auxiliaries and household visits are an integral part of the program. By substantially raising the proportion of budgetary allocations to education and health (particularly emphasizing education for women) other countries can advance towards low mortality levels. Though the characteristics of the low mortality societies have long historical antecedents effective substitution for this historical experience has been made by some socialist countries and other substitutions are possible in the rest of the Third World. Religion is shown to have been associated with cultures that in some cases have retarded mortality decline and in others assisted it.

Sex Preference, Fertility, and Family Planning in China

Abstract: A pronounced preference of parents to have male children has been noted in a number of countries, although a desire for a balanced number of sons and daughters is also common (Williamson 1976; Arnold and Kuo 1984). Son preference is particularly prevalent in countries with strong Confucian traditions (Cleland, Verral, and Vaessen 1983; Cho, Arnold, and Kwon 1982; Freedman and Coombs, 1974). The extent of son preference has been the subject of considerable discussion and debate recently in China. It has been argued that the successful implementation of the one-child family policy has been hampered by lingering son preference, particularly in rural areas. For this reason, the Chinese government has undertaken measures to reduce the impact of son preference. As an example of educational efforts, family planning posters nearly always portray the only child in a one-child family as a daughter, in an attempt to legitimize the idea of a family without a son in the minds of the populace.

Shifts in China's Population Policy, 1984-86: Views from the Central, Provincial, and Local Levels

Abstract: Since early 1984, important but little-noticed changes have been taking place in China's population policy. 1 Although family planning remains mandatory and third children continue to be prohibited, substantial evidence suggests that China's birth planning program has become more lenient in the past two years. This note reports key changes in policy and practice at the national, provincial, and local levels, and assesses their import for the overall character of the program. It also draws out some of the broader shifts in policy approach that have occurred in the past two years. The review emphasizes family planning policy applied to the Han majority; policies for the ethnic minorities, who make up just under 7 percent of the population, have always been more permissive.2 I draw primarily on statements by government officials in China and articles in Chinese-language health and population publications; additional information was also provided by discussions with Chinese population specialists held during a lecture tour of ten demography research and training centers in November and December of 1985.

Long-term fluctuations in climate and population in the preindustrial era.

Abstract: This article examines the hypothesis that longterm changes in middle latitude climate had a significant impact on population size variations in preindustrial societies. Warm periods are assumed to be associated with above average population levels while cool periods are correlated with subnormal levels. A model is presented that suggests longterm fluctuations in middle latitude temperature cause longterm fluctuations in food supply per capita and in vital rates; the effects of food supply and temperature on vital rates are independent however. Empirical analysis of data from various European countries China and archaelogical sites in North America and Europe provide support for such a model. Data from England show declines in grain yield fertility life expectancy and population growth and increases in average age at 1st marriage and net outmigration during the cooling period that extended from 1590 to 1670. The reverse trends were noted during the period of warming from 1670 to 1800. Analysis of data from China and western Europe indicate that a 10% increase in solar activity (a proxy for temperature) was associated with a 4% increase in population. In contrast to Malthusian theory which cannot account for the timing of longterm observed fluctuations in population a climate-population model effectively predicts the turning points observed in preindustrial societies. The striking synchrony in the longterm movements of temperature agricultural yield and population series across the middle latitudes in the period before the year 1800 suggest that this approach is worthy of more attention.

Underdevelopment is a State of Mind: The Latin American Case.

Abstract: An examination of Latin America's rocky development as a cultural, rather than colonial byproduct. In a new introduction Harrison explores the political and economic shifts that have occurred over the past 15 years.

Pronatalist Policies in Low-Fertility Countries: Patterns, Performance, and Prospects

Abstract: On 18 July 1969 President Richard Nixon transmitted a "Message on Population" to the US Congress urging a government supported domestic family planning program for the purpose of stabilizing population. But by 1972 US fertility once again had fallen below replacement level where it has remained ever since. Planning for a stabilized population has become in effect a call for increasing fertility. This paper examines the portfolio of pronatalist policies and measures designed. To achieve replacement fertility in countries with too-low fertility. The most likely efforts will be along the lines of past policies despite their lackluster record. The state might offer free child care 5 days a week and optional on weekends. Child subsidies going directly to the family in the form of money rather than in kind have more promise because they leave greater scope for the exercise of parental decision making concerning arrangements for child rearing. The income tax offers a flexible mechanism to provide such subsidies without much bureaucracy. A radical alternative also expensive would be to give up on the family as an institution incompatible with the industrial system and rely on motherhood practiced as fully professionalized activity collectively financed. Structural reforms between utopian radicalism and extreme welfare statism could 1) reassert parental power over childrens education 2) incorporate the nuclear family 3) link old-age economic security to prior fertility behavior and 4) strengthen the influence of families with children in the political system--parents could exercise childrens voting rights until they reach 18 years old.

The Peasant Economy and Social Change in North China.

Abstract: Note of place-names Part I. Background: 1. The issues 2. The sources and the villages 3. The ecological setting Part II. Economic Involution and Social Change: 4. Managerial farming and family farming in the 1930's 5. The small-peasant and estate economies of the early Qing 6. Commercialization and social stratification in the Qing 7. Accelerated commercialization in the twentieth century 8. Managerial farming and family farming: draft-animal use 9. Managerial farming and family farming: labor use 10. The underdevelopment of managerial farming 11. The persistence of small-peasant family farming 12. The commercialization of production relations Part III. The Village and the State: 13. Villages under the Qing state 14. Changes in the village community 15. Village and state in the twentieth century 16. Conclusion Appendixes Character list Index.

Changing values and falling birth rates.

Abstract: This article seeks to explain the trends since World War II in fertility marriage divorce family size orientation and contraception in the 5 major non-European industrialized countries--the US Canada Australia New Zealand and Japan. The paper sets forth an explanatory framework and sketches in examples of how this framework aids in the interpretation of the monumental changes that have occurred. The decline in fertility has been extraordinarily pervasive through all social strata. Couples are evidently responding to very generalized phenomena that are felt within all major groups. Since values have been relatively underplayed the author focuses his discussion on changes in fertility values although economic and contraceptive factors are also very important. In Western societies over the past 300 years social values attached to childbearing and child rearing can be summarized under the doctrine of "responsible parenthood." Relative to many other cultures the obligations of Western parents to young children were stressed above the obligations of parents toward their own parents. Long-term economic growth increased the value of skilled and well-educated workers just as the development of complex democracies required better educated citizens. In the absence of strong values attached to filial piety (as is found in much of Asia) parents do not recoup the bulk of their investment. But long-term economic growth not only affected the quality/quantity tradeoff within the role of responsible parent; it also increased the incentives to abandon the role altogether. Higher incomes product diversification and urbanization presented a vast array of consumption possibilities--for relationships as well as for goods and services--whose pursuit was increasingly constrained by the time and money demands of responsible parenthood. Economic growth is likely to continue to produce moderate downward pressure on fertility. The contraceptive advances of recent decades are largely irreversible. The future course of fertility in the English-speaking countries depends on whether and how values spring back toward higher fertility.

The Indonesian family planning program: government influence and client choice.

Abstract: The Indonesian family planning (FP) program has attained field success through implementation strategies centering on communities and clients. The proportion of eligible couples practising FP rose from 2.8% in 1971/72 to 62.6% in 1984/85 and from the late 1960s to the late 1970s fertility declined 16%. This study uses quantitative data from 48 villages selected for varying degrees of program success anthropological field research on 1 village and its subdistrict capital in each of 4 regencies interviews with officials from government agencies and data and publications from the National FP Coordinating Board (NFPCB) the National Development Planning Agency and other Indonesian organizations. In the 1970s: 2200 clinics were built and 6800 field workers were trained. Recently there has been a policy change towards more private sector provision. One of the problems has been a lack of information services to accompany contraceptives. The NFPCB is regionally organized. From the beginning the program has been strongly supported to the point of causing conflict with the Department of Health. FP has been part of a broader strong government initiative for development coupled with a heavy consolidation of government power. Promotion of FP takes place at the village administrator level. According to a correlation study program factors important steps in promoting community acceptance have been convincing religious leaders forming acceptor groups and recruiting traditional birth attendants. The need for medical support has been recognized; its presence seems to increase FP practice. Also attempts have been made to link family planning with other development projects. The program now has problems in developing quantitative success measures in balancing external influences on clients with free choice in deciding how much pressure to exert on other government agencies and in maintaining the commitment of local implementers.

The effects of rapid population growth on labor supply and employment in developing countries.

Abstract: This document examines the principal effects of rapid population growth on labor supply and employment in the developing countries of the world. On the supply side of labor markets the discussion focuses on the lags between population growth and labor force participation; the independent effects on labor supply of accelerated population growth due to changes in fertility mortality and migration; patterns and trends in labor force participation rates; and gender differences in labor supply behavior. On the demand side attention is directed to the way in which the nature of labor markets in developing economies including government and privately induced wage distortions and rigidities conditions their labor absorption capacity. Most of the statistics analyzed were drawn from the various publications of the World Bank with some statistics from the United Nations and the International Labor Office. Countries are grouped in 2 conventional ways for purposes of the analysis: by income group and by geographic location. This review of the evidence reveals that developing countries have faced a very rapid increase in the population in the past 2 decades. Fertility and mortality patterns and developing country age structures guarantee a similar large increase in the future. Yet the experience of the past indicates that despite population increasing more than the labor force and despite inefficient dualistic labor markets (due potentially to government-induced and other imperfections) developing countries were on the whole relatively successful in improving their economic positions over the 1960-80 period. The labor markets absorbed a large population increase with per worker incomes rising and shifts occurring in the labor force distribution toward more productive sectors of the economy. Overall the experiences of the 1960-80 period provide little support for either the optimistic view that rapid population growth promotes development or the pessimistic view that it necessarily hinders development. The "neutralist" view that population growth has had little net association with economic development seems to be the most sensible conclusion to draw from the evidence though of course economic growth per capita might have been faster under slower population growth. For the remainder of the 20th century predicted population growth can likely be accommodated provided the developing economies generate human and physical capital investments of comparable relative magnitudes to the past 2 decades.

Infant mortality in the Soviet Union: regional differences and measurement issues.

Abstract: Changes and differences in definitions reporting procedures and completeness of count can make comparisons over time or between countries hazardous. This article illustrates the general problem by examining Soviet definitions of infant mortality and the procedures by which Soviet statistics on infant mortality are collected. The rates of infant mortality reported in Soviet official statistics substantially understate the true rates. This analysis suggests that the Soviet definition makes the reported infant mortality rates low relative to what they would be if calculated according to the definition of infant mortality by the WHO. This analysis also has implications for the analysis of Soviet mortality rates in general as well as for comparison of Soviet rates to those in other countries. Removal of a large portion of the deaths of extremely-high-risk newborns from reported infant mortality statistics affects both the level and shape of reported mortality curves. After adjusting the reported infant mortality rates for the Soviet Union and for regional subpopulations published Soviet life tables were used to assess the consistency between infant mortality rates and mortality at older ages. It was shown that the relation between the reported infant mortality rates and mortality at older ages differs greatly between regions of the Soviet Union.

Food Crisis, Nutrition, and Female Children in Rural Bangladesh

Abstract: This article assesses the effect of the 1974-1975 famine on sex-biased allocation of food among children aged 1-4 in Bangladesh. The study was conducted in 12 Matlab villages on 1400 children. Anthropometric indexes were used as a measure of nutrition and floor space in each familys dwelling was used as an indicator of socioeconomic status. A sharp downward trend in malnutrition occurred over the study period with rapid seasonal fluctuation in indexes of weight-for-age and weight-for-height. The proportion of severely malnourished children was 68% higher in April-October 1975 than in April-October 1976. Data demonstrate negative effects of famine low socioeconomic status and female sex on nutrition as effects of famine on female children and those of low socioeconomic status were more acute. Improvement in household resources raises nutritional status of all children but benefits males more than females. Sex differentials in nutritional status were more marked among children of high socioeconomic status. It is important that those responsible for resource allocation in times of crisis ensure that famine relief reaches both male and female children; feeding at a relief center may be more effective than giving food to the family for home consumption.

The Pree inent Role of Government Intervention in China's Family Revolution

Abstract: This article argues that changes in family patterns in China are largely a result of direct government intervention rather than an inevitable byproduct of industrialization urbanization and other forms of modern social change. The author bases his argument on temporal trends and regional variations in fertility and marriage. The data indicate a close correlation between abrupt shifts in the fertility rate and reversals in official population policy. For example there was a sharp decline in fertility in 1962-67 when the Government implemented the 1st of its population control policies a sharp rise in 1968 when such efforts were undercut by the chaos of the initial year of the Cultural Revolution and a dramatic decline when the birth control program was reimplemented in 1970. A similar pattern can be observed for 1st marriage rates. Urban and rural fertility and marriage rates have varied in unison a pattern that would not be found if modernization were the driving force behind demographic trends. Further support for the authors hypothesis was provided by 2481 fertility histories given by 580 women in 7 communities (Peking Fukien Chekiang Kiangsu Shantung Shensi and Szechwan) covering the 1940-79 period. Low fertility rates were noted in field sites where the commune leadership was particularly committed to implementing birth control even under conditions of extreme economic underdevelopment. The success of the Chinese birth control program seems attributable to 2 factors: 1) the great prestige of the central government and 2) penetration of village society by the national bureaucracy. Moreover it seems likely that this successful experience can only be replicated in other countries by replicating Chinas social structure.

Economic Development and the Older Population

Abstract: The implications of aging populations and of increasing proportions aged 65 and older have only recently emerged as a concern on the policy agenda in the less developed world. After sketching the demographic context of aging in less developed regions this article presents a conceptual framework for relating the older population to development policy. Four perspectives on the aged are identified as implicit in development policies: (1) the aged as a low priority (2) the aged as an impediment (3) the aged as a resource and (4) the aged as victims. These overlapping and at times competing perspectives are evaluated in terms of the benefits and pitfalls they imply for development strategies. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)

Changes in Family Structure in China: A Simulation Study

Abstract: A simulation model used to study the effects of changing demographic factors on family size and structure in China indicates that average family size declined 10% between 1950-70 and 1981 dropping from 4.90 to 4.37 persons per family. The proportion of nuclear families in the 1981 simulation (51.3%) dropped from the 1950-70 level (72.2%). Both of these changes result largely from declining fertility. The majority of Chinese families (about 90%) continue to have both husband and wife present a feature that is likely to continue. Fertility and the propensity for coresidence of three generations will be the most important factors affecting Chinese family size and type while the effects of changing mortality and nuptiality patterns will be modest. An interplay of socioeconomic factors reducing the propensity for coresidence (e.g. cultural modernization housing constraints in urban areas migration to urban areas and more people on pensions and social security) and factors sustaining this propensity (e.g. the desire for large families to ensure an inexpensive labor supply slow development of the pension system and the ethical tradition of care and respect for the elderly) can be expected. Since the propensity for coresidence is not likely to fall dramatically in the years ahead the proportion of nuclear families will probably decrease. Later however further fertility reductions are expected to intensify the effects of a gradually decreasing propensity for coresidence and increase the proportion of nuclear families.

On migration patterns in India during the 1970s.

Abstract: This paper examines movements between the rural and urban sectors in India using both the 1981 and the 1971 data to compare trends during the 1970s with those in the 1980s. The censuses collected information on duration of residence which allows the separation of short-term and long-term migrants. While only a portion of total mobility can be captured by the census sufficient data are available for India to paint a reasonably detailed picture of changing sectoral patterns over time. The Indian case can be drawn into a more general context to provide insight into how migration patterns change in response to development and to characterize the role of short-term mobility within the overall trends of migration in developing countries. This paper also highlights many of the difficulties inherent in analyzing migration patterns purely from census data. Although rural-to-rural migration was still the dominant type of movement in 1981 there was a reduction in the relative importance of the rural-to-rural stream from 1961-1971 to 1971-1981. The pattern of intersate migration which excludes many of the short-distance migrants is quite different. At this level rural-to-rural migration is not nearly so important and the 2 intersectoral flows of almost equal importance in 1981 were rural-to-urban and urban-to-urban. The net addition to the urban areas due to migration in 1971-1981 was about 9.4 million and that for 1961-1971 some 5.7 million. Although the evidence is fragmentary it seems likely that in the India of the 1960s a system of stage migration was operating similar to that originally described by Ravenstein with local movement to regional urban centers accompainied by movement out of the regional centers to the largest towns. The most marked feature of migration change from the 1960s to the 1970s was the increasing participation of women in all the flows. A 2nd clear trend suggests that the longer a migrant male or female has been at a destination the greater the probability that he or she will continue to survive there.

The family that does not reproduce itself.

Abstract: Mean family size in the industrial nations is less than the 2.1 children per couple needed for the population to remain constant over the long run. The countries of Western Europe have a mean family size of about 1.61 children per couple with West Germany as low as 1.42 Japan at 1.71 Europe as a whole at 1.9 and the US at 1.85. The decline of births is related to 1) contraception for the 1st time controlled by women; 2) womens employment outside the home; and 3) the democratization of decision making within couples. Work opportunities for women lower the birth rate but they do so by freeing women from the dictatorship of men. The activity of child rearing is compared with other uncompensated activities that occupy peoples leisure on the one hand and with paid work in the other hand. Clerical work womens current alternative to the 19th century factory has agreeable social elements combined with tolerable and limited duties. Staying home with children can be lonely 7 days a week; it lacks crisp challenges and interpersonal relations. If parents do not spend their money and time producing children they can apply both money and time to the purchase and use of dazzling array of other goods. Children are no longer investments in the traditional sense because 1) children are in large part no longer formed by parents but by television schools and peer groups; and 2) parents rely on their own savings and the state to provide for their old age. A feature of earlier high fertility was the inculcation of differentiated gender roles starting long before marriage. Women has few choices beyond raising children. The spread of high-fertility cultures did not need to be planned by anyone; sheer aithmetic worked at 2nd remove to make male dominance universal. This article argues that under modern conditions there will be few children.

Population and development in Mexico since 1940: an interpretation.

Abstract: In this discussion of population and development in Mexico since 1940 attention is directed initially to the 30-year period of sustained economic growth that began in 1940. After identifying the mainstays of the governments efforts to promote development during the period focus shifts to the ways in which these policies were shaped by and in turn fostered rapid population growth. Turning to the recurrent frustration of Mexican development objectives from the late 1960s onwards the discussion turns to the exhaustion of the mechanisms of population accommodation that had been relied on and to the ways successive governments tried to cope with the problems they encountered. In the final section consideration turns to 1 of the responses i.e. the population policy announced in 1973. After analyzing the nature of the government efforts the discussion explores how they were related to the rapid change in reproductive behavior that has occurred in the interim. A marked acceleration in the rate of growth of Mexicos population took place in the 1930s and the 1940s. In the 30 years following 1940 the Mexican population increased by 157% in contrast to an increase in the previous years of only 30%. The net annual addition to the population which numbered about 300000 persons in the 1930s had increased to nearly 2 million persons by 1970. The acceleration was brought about by a rapid decline in mortality and to a lesser extent by a slight but appreciable increase in fertility. It was an amazing accomplishment of the Mexican economy and society that they were able without visible strain to accommodate this unexpected and sizable increase in numbers. Several policies pursued during this period appear to have been particularly pertinent to the pattern of accommodation that was achieved including the agrarian reform policy the agricultural policy government support of the industrial sector and a series of policies designed to promote private sector initiative. Much of the explanation for the persistence of high fertility in Mexico lies with the particular policy initiatives that defined the style of development during the 1940-70 period. They gave rise to important social and economic transformations but failed to produce environments in which high fertility posed a serious problem for most families at least until well toward the end of this period. If in 1940 there was no apparent reason for Mexico to have much interest in limiting fertility this was no longer the case by 1970. The submission in September 1973 of a legislative proposal for major reforms in the countrys laws concerning population was notable. A constitutional amendment and the revisions and extensions of the population code became effective before the end of the year. Yet the marked decline in fertility in Mexico realized by 1982 will have no more than a minimal influence on the growth in the labor force that will take place during the rest of this century. This continuing rapid population growth engenders much condern about the effects of the dramatic break with past macroeconomic performance that has occurred since the early 1980s.

Income and mortality: evidence from modern Japan.

Abstract: This article develops a theoretical framework to explore changes over time in the relationship between income per capita and regional mortality levels. Based initially on observations about Western European experience the theory posits that prior to economic development and for some time during its early stages the typical relationship between death rates and income is positive--the result of the deleterious effects of living at high population densities. As people learned to modify and control their environments through various public health measures the beneficial effects of income on mortality emerged. This theory is tested using data for Japan. "In the structural shifts of relations between mortality and income Japans experience is typical. What remains remarkable is that the Japanese were able to achieve relatively high overall levels of life expectancy very early in the process of economic development." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)

Observations on the History of Cohort Fertility in the United States

Abstract: This article has exploited a valuable set of data: completed parity distributions for the cohorts of 1867 through 1955 for women in the US. The history is a familiar one: long-term decline with a transitory reversal about a generation ago. In considering the time series of aggregate fertility a measure of mean sibship size was introduced in order to represent fertility from the standpoint of the children rather than as is conventional from the standpoint of the parents. Understanding of the determinants of the time series of cohort total fertility is enhanced by a consideration of the time series of progression ratios for successive parities. Progression ratios beyond parity 2 show characteristics quite unlike those for the lower parities. In order to come to closer grips with theoretical issues a model of the components of parity progression has been developed. The model is 1st used to contrast the values of the fundamental demographic parameter the intrinsic rate of natural increase for all births and then for intended births. The conclusion reached is that population growth in the US over the past 8 decades has had 3 components: immigration mortality decline and unintended births. The pattern of change in the intended parity distribution shows a systematic monotonic rise in the proportion intending 2 births from 13% for the earliest cohort to 43% for the latest cohort. This transformation has been accompanied by an equally systematic decline in the mean number of intended additional births for those with at least 3 births from 3.2 at the beginning of the series to 0.5 at the end of the series. The final application of the model is to test the proposition that progression is insensitive to parity beyond parity 2. While this is true for observed progression it is not true for intended progression.

The Immigration Time Bomb: The Fragmenting of America.

Abstract: This book examines the problems posed in the United States by current levels of immigration both legal and illegal. Consideration is given to the number of immigrants the country can absorb and to the problems associated with immigration such as exploitation of migrants lawlessness the splintering of society language conflict employment and pressures on social services. The authors also examine the need to change laws governing migration and ways of making the laws enforceable. (ANNOTATION)