Showing papers in "Population Research and Policy Review in 1984"

Delayed childbearing in the United States

Abstract: This article analyzes the phenomenon of delayed childbearing in the United States. It begins by exploring problems associated with the definition and measurement of delayed childbearing. Existing empirical evidence of the phenomenon is reviewed and some new evidence is presented. A general theoretical framework for analyzing delayed childbearing is outlined and discussed in relation to existing theories. The article also provides a critical substantive and methodological review of evidence on the correlates and implications of delayed childbearing. Finally, public and private policy-related aspects of delayed childbearing are considered.

Voodoo forecasting: Technical, political and ethical issues regarding the projection of local population growth

Abstract: The case of an energy production community in Colorado is used to illustrate a) the great need for reliable subnational population forecasts, especially in communities expecting rapid population growth, and b) why such projections, as currently performed, cannot be reliable. Explanations for failure in forecasting are found in the methods themselves, the unavailability and unreliability of key data, politics, and the intrusion of the designers' and users' values into the forecasting models. As one solution it is proposed that forecasting be reconceptualized from a technical to an ethical issue and that it be based upon an active rather than a passive planning/forecasting philosophy. As such, the community and industry would set a desired, realistic goal, and forecasting models would be run backwards to determine the economic-demographic paths by which this goal could be achieved.

Population forecasting and local economic planning: The limits on community control over uncertainty

Abstract: Forecasting, planning, and controls are all attempts to cope with uncertainty about the future. The reasons that forecasts err are examined, and the limits of technical solutions are discussed. The beneficial planning uses of even error-prone forecasts are outlined, and it is argued that the concept of forecast accuracy is a basic contradiction of the essence of planning. The potential for local economic planning and community control over uncertainty is examined. Its major determinant is the economic context in which a community finds itself, but the enhanced mobility of firms over the last two decades has restricted the ability of communities to plan. Implications for forecasters, model builders, and local planners are discussed.

The Influence of Catholic Schools on the Desegregation of Public School Systems: A Case Study of White Flight in Boston

Abstract: White flight from public school desegregation can result in educational and residential resegregation which defeat the purpose of desegregation programs. One form of white flight is pupil transfer to private schools, which in major metropolitan areas are predominantly Catholic schools. Unlike residential relocation, transfers to Catholic schools do not effect an increase in residential segregation and they constitute a potentially less permanent loss to the public system than that caused by relocation. Nevertheless, empty seats in area Catholic schools pose a threat to the success of any desegregation program. For the Catholic diocese, the white flight issue creates a complex conflict of interests, involving institutional self-interest and competing claims to moral principles and Church teachings. A case study of Boston indicates that approximately 2,000 students transferred to Catholic schools from the public system, accounting for over 20 percent of white pupil loss to the public system. This occurred despite diocesan policies designed to prevent white flight to Catholic schools. An analysis of political and institutional constraints on policy development and implementation provides a basis for predicting Church response to future desegregation programs in other locations. Suggestions for diocesan programs designed to address desegregation issues are included.

Public opinion and the federal judiciary: Crime, punishment, and demographic constraints

Abstract: In this article the causal connection between public opinion and law is examined and the representative model of judicial behavior is reappraised. After a description of some of the important linkages between public sentiments and judicial behavior, the empirical relationship between public attitudes toward criminal punishment and the sentences imposed for different crimes by the federal district courts is assessed during the period from 1970 to 1980. Inconsistent responses by the judiciary are found, which lead to a revision of the representative model. It is argued that this model must take into account demographic and other constraints on judicial action, as well as the salience of political issues.

Sexist Ideology and the Evaluation Criteria Used to Assess Women's Integration into the Army *

Abstract: This article is a reaction to the 1978 Evaluation of Women in the Army report issued by the U.S. Army. It looks at the criteria used in women's evaluation in terms of the sexist ideology prevalent in the military system. Those issues which are identified by the Army as problematic and which affect policies regarding women's full integration into the Army are discussed at length.

An intervention analysis of the effects of legalized abortion upon U.S. fertility.

Abstract: Models of time series data on births in the United States are used to assess the impact of the 1973 decision of the U.S. Supreme Court invalidating statutes that seriously restrict access to abortion. The decision of the Court is found to have no discernible impact on births for the nation as a whole. Models of state-level data suggest that the legalization of abortion by states prior to the decision was satisfying the demand for abortion

Declining birth rates and growing populations

Abstract: Excitement over declining fertility in the Third World needs caution for several reasons. First, it is now too late to “solve” the world's population problem. Second, the common belief that the birth decline is widespread and is affecting virtually all developing nations goes beyond the data. Third, the notion that birth rates are declining with great speed is not true when the rate is measured against either urbanization or mortality decline. Fourth, a sample of countries indicates that the decline is now slowing rather than accelerating. Fifth, the idea that the declines are due mainly to family planning, and can therefore be assured of continuance in the future, seems unwarranted.

Estimates of the Number of Illegal Aliens: An Analysis of the Sources of Disagreement

Abstract: This article analyzes differences in estimates of the number of illegal aliens in the United States. Although smaller than differences among estimates made by some of the earlier studies, estimates constructed in the past decade often differ by several million. An examination of the problems involved in making these estimates produced four likely sources of the discrepancies. The four “sources of disagreement” are discussed, followed by suggestions for improving the reliability of the estimates. Some consequences for immigration law reform are also addressed.

The non-comparability of the “comparable worth” doctrine: An inappropriate standard for determining sex discrimination in pay

Abstract: This article critically evaluates the legal doctrine of “comparable worth,” including recent federal court decisions related to it. The doctrine mandates equal pay for jobs requiring comparable—but not equal—skill, effort and responsibility. As a standard for determining whether sex discrimination in pay has occurred, comparable worth is an economically defective concept and inappropriate to the task.

Nonmarital cohabitation and fertility in the United States and Western Europe

Abstract: The increasing popularity of nonmarital cohabitation and a decline in marriage rates in the United States and Western Europe has led to a growing research interest in cohabitation without marriage and its relationship to traditional marriage. This article examines the evidence on the prevalence of cohabitation and the characteristics of cohabitants, and focuses on the childbearing behavior of cohabiting couples who are not married. The evidence to date suggests that in Denmark and Sweden cohabitation is widespread, especially among young people, and childbearing within cohabitational unions is relatively common. In the rest of Western Europe and in the United States, cohabitation is less common and fertility is less frequent. Fertility will be affected to the extent that couples delay having children until they are married. Policy and law concerning cohabitants and their children are changing rapidly. Most of these changes have resulted in a blurring of the distinctions between married and unmarried couples and between legitimate and illegitimate children.

Population forecasting and planning: Some philosophical issues

Abstract: The preceding article by Isserman and Fisher is considered with regard to the question of active versus passive population forecasting and planning. The reasons are examined for the difference between my position, as outlined in my article earlier in this issue, and that of Isserman and Fisher.

The Swiss Equal Rights Amendment: A Case Study

Abstract: In June, 1981, the Swiss passed a constitutional amendment providing legal equality for men and women. How that could happen in a legal system that appears to be more than most designed to maintain male privilege is the major topic of this case study. The nature of the political system into which the Swiss equal rights amendment was introduced and of the support and opposition to the amendment are examined. The impact of the amendment since its passage is reported. Each major aspect of the Swiss situation is compared with the American experience with the Equal Rights Amendment and the significance of the Swiss case for American social action is delineated.