Showing papers in "Strategic Analysis in 2003"
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors focus on environmental crisis as a reason for the continued migration of people from Bangladesh to India and show that scarcity of land and water in the rural areas of Bangladesh, caused by rapid population growth, environmental change and unequal resource distribution and development, are causing widespread landlessness, unemployment, declining wages and income, growing income disparties and degradation of human habitat.
Abstract: Environmental crisis in the rural areas of developing countries is increasingly becoming an important cause of cross‐border migration of population and South Asia is no exception to this phenomenon. Such movement of population in the Indo‐Bangladesh context is generating a range of destabilising socio‐political, economic, ethnic and communal tensions in India. It has embittered Indo‐Bangladesh relations, causing tensions between the two countries. This paper focuses on environmental crisis as a reason for the continued migration of people from Bangladesh to India. It shows that scarcity of land and water in the rural areas of Bangladesh, caused by rapid population growth, environmental change and unequal resource distribution and development, are causing widespread landlessness, unemployment, declining wages and income, growing income disparties and degradation of human habitat. The affected people, unable to satisfy their needs in an economically less‐developed Bangladesh, are increasingly movin...
59 citations
TL;DR: In the post-Cold War era, with the emergence of an independent Namibia and a democratic South-Africa, the main agenda that had brought India and Africa together (the fight against colonialism and institutionalised racialism) has disappeared.
Abstract: In the post‐Cold War era, with the emergence of an independent Namibia and a democratic South‐Africa, the main agenda that had brought India and Africa together—the fight against colonialism and institutionalised racialism—has disappeared. India's Africa policy indicates a slight change as also some consistency in the post‐Cold War era. It appears to be composed of five mantras: promoting economic cooperation, engagin the people of Indian origin, preventing and combating terrorism, preserving peace and assisting the African defence forces. There exists enormous goodwill for India in Africa and India should take advantage of it to further strengthen ties through a new partnership.
43 citations
TL;DR: The authors discusses how the Uyghur identity emerged and became crystallised around the concept of ethnicity and concludes that in the context of Han nationalism, minority identities are hard to sustain and are increasingly submerged.
Abstract: The origins of Chinese nationalism are traceable to the post‐Cold War era which saw the gradual erosion of Communist ideology and the Chinese government's me of nationalism to shore up party legitimacy. Yet, the Chinese nationalism which has emerged is representative of Han nationalism and ignores ethnic minority nationalism in the larger cause of China's unity and integrity. Therefore, the strains in Chinese nationalism are visible today, in the separatist movements in Tibet and Xinjiang. This paper is about Uyghur separatism as it developed in the context of the Chinese idea of nationalism. The paper discusses how the Uyghur identity emerged and became crystallised around the concept of ethnicity. It concludes that in the context of Han nationalism, minority identities are hard to sustain and are increasingly submerged.
30 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors look at the changing dynamics of terrorism, experience of some other countries and India's experience in combating insurgency/terrorism in these states has mostly been of finding a military solution to a political problem.
Abstract: The scourge of terrorism has haunted Indian policy‐makers since independence. Some of the states, particularly the bordering states, having different cultural and ethnic composition from the heartland, suffered from a real or perceived sense of neglect and misgovernance. Inimical powers exploited this aspect and sowed seeds of sedition and secession amongst some sections of society of these states—particularly the states of the North‐East, Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir—by providing them with arms training and financial support and instigated them to take up arms against the state machinery. India's experience in combating insurgency/terrorism in these states has mostly been of finding a military solution to a political problem. Central and state governments have responded with various actions, mostly military, within own borders but lacked a coherent counter terrorism policy. This paper is an attempt to look at the changing dynamics of terrorism, experience of some other countries and India, threa...
26 citations
TL;DR: In the early years of the post-Cold War era, South Asia became a low priority in US Asia policy compared to other regions, especially East Asia and the Middle-East as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: American security policy towards South Asia can basically be divided into three stages: balance of power in the Cold War era, beyond balance of power after the end of Cold War, and new balance of power after September 11. The Cold War saw an allied US and‐Pakistan rival the close relations between the Soviet Union and India in the subcontinent. Yet, South Asia became a low priority in US Asia policy in the early years of the post‐Cold War era compared to other regions, especially East Asia and the Middle‐East. Three events, however, drew US attention to the region in the late 1990s. First, India and Pakistan exploded a total of eleven nuclear devices in May 1998. Then the two powers came into conflict in Kargil from May to July 1999 which resulted in a bloodless military coup in Pakistan in October 1999. Third, President Clinton's visit to South Asia in March 2000 topped off a changing US South Asia strategy with a warm Washington‐New Delhi rapprochement. The Bush Administration continued to tran...
19 citations
TL;DR: In the 2002 general elections, the Muttahida Majilis-e-Amal (MMA) and two Provincial Assemblies (NWFP and Baluchistan) made inroads into the National Assembly in an impressive fashion.
Abstract: Pakistan's political climate has always been polarized between the civil and the military leaders, with balance of political fortunes tilting in favour of one or the other, from time to time. With the overthrow of Nawaz Sharif in a bloodless coup in October 1999, the military marched out of the barracks after more than a decade. The new military ruler, Pervez Musharraf started consolidating power and giving supremacy to the armed forces in shaping Pakistan's destiny through an engineered referendum; appeasement of jihadi and religious parties; marginalisation of mainstream political parties and a series of controversial amendments. These were not new practices in Pakistan's troubled politics. But what is new in the October 2002 general elections, is that the religious parties and two Provincial Assemblies—those of North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and Baluchistan—made inroads into the National Assembly in an impressive fashion. A. conglomeration of six parties, the Muttahida Majilis‐e‐Amal (MMA...
18 citations
TL;DR: Baltic States are engaged in trying to upgrade their armed forces, solve their territorial and ethnic disputes to meet the NATO membership criteria, and relationship with Russia is facing problems on number of issues.
Abstract: The Baltic States’ search for security became a major issue after their independence in 1991. Since then these States have been trying to establish links with Europe and perceive Russia as a major threat. Their aspirations for the NATO membership are based on their security perspective. Baltic States are engaged in trying to upgrade their armed forces, solve their territorial and ethnic disputes to meet the NATO membership criteria. As regards relationship with Russia, there are problems on number of issues and they are trying to resolve them, as a normal friendly relationship between them will be beneficial for both sides.
14 citations
TL;DR: The foreign policy of a country is primarily a projection of its socio-economic and political compulsions in international politics as discussed by the authors, where India occupies centrestage, where India is always guided by its core factors.
Abstract: Foreign policy of a country is primarily a projection of its socio‐economic and political compulsions in international politics. Apart from other determinants, the foreign policy of Bangladesh was always guided by its core factors, where India occupies centrestage. Bangladesh, pursues its foreign policy based on its geographical surroundings, historical legacy, and more importantly, persistence of a number of outstanding bilateral issues, which are vital to its existence. Mujib ‘s policies of anti‐imperialism, anti‐colonialism, non‐alignment, close friendship with India at international level and secularism, democracy and nationalism at national level underwent a tremendous change under the military regime. To some extent the islamisation of Bangladesh based on anti‐Indian sentiment affected the relations between the two countries. The regime's interest in the security of its authority made it difficult for Bangladeshi rulers to take some positive and rational steps in improving their relations w...
12 citations
TL;DR: The Bodoland Autonomous Council (BAC) Accord was signed in 1993 and the Bodoland movement became more violent during the later part of the 1990s as discussed by the authors, which led to ethnic cleansing of the non-Bodos along the north bank of the Brahmaputra.
Abstract: Assam, one of the seven states of the northeastern region of India, has long remained one of the most volatile and sensitive regions in the country because of the problems of insurgency, ethnic conflict, pressure of migration, underdevelopment etc. Bodos, the largest plains tribe of Assam started an armed struggle for a separate state in the mid‐1980s. This armed struggle led to ethnic cleansing of the non‐Bodos along the north bank of the Brahmaputra. The Bodoland Autonomous Council (BAC) Accord was signed in 1993 and the Bodoland movement became more violent during the later part of the 1990s. In February 2003, the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) Accord was signed to end the one‐and‐a‐half decade long Bodo movement. The success of this new Accord will solely depend upon proper implementation of its changes and the cooperation between the Bodo and non‐Bodo communities. The non‐Bodos within the proposed BTC area are opposing the new Accord, as under the modified Sixth Schedule of the Constitut...
11 citations
TL;DR: In the spring semester of 2002, undergraduate students in a Japanese college were surveyed about their views following the two major terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 and December 13, 2001 (Indian Parliament) as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: This paper is part of an international collaborative research project involving researchers from India, England, Japan and the United States. International terrorism has emerged as a major human concern after September 11, 2001 and an understanding of this against the backdrop of related security problems has emerged as a priority research area. This paper presents preliminary findings of an exploratory pilot study. In the spring semester of 2002, undergraduate students in q Japanese college were surveyed about their views following the two major terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 (New York and Washington) and December 13, 2001 (Indian Parliament). A total of 75 undergraduate students completed a self‐administered questionnaire.
10 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine the nature of the emerging international security system and its positive and negative implications for India's security calculus and call for having well-articulated policies and strategies that can meet not only the present-day concerns and uncertainties, but also have the capacity to meet India's future needs.
Abstract: This paper examines the nature of the emerging international security system and its positive and negative implications for India's security calculus. The key features of the international security system are confrontation,’ and cooperation and accommodation, and these open up several possibilities of threats, challenges and opportunities for India. To India's credit, despite the worsening of its geo‐strategic environment, the country's policy‐making structures have displayed the capacity to remain flexible and responsive to changes for furthering its security and national interests. The paper calls for having well‐articulated policies and strategies that can meet not only the present‐day concerns and uncertainties, but also have the capacity to meet India's future needs.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the use of air power in the 1962 India-China war and in the 1999 Kargil conflict and revealed a certain continuity in the attitudes to offensive air-power in limited conflicts.
Abstract: The paper examines the utilisation of air power in the 1962 India‐China war and in the 1999 Kargil conflict. The study reveals a certain continuity in the attitudes to the use of offensive air power in limited conflicts. Both in 1962 and in 1999, the use of air power was hedged about with various restrictions. Underlying these appears to be the belief that the use of offensive air power is fundamentally escalatory. Hence there is a hesitation to commit offensive air power assets.
TL;DR: I deem it a privilege to be invited to deliver the IDSA Foundation Lecture and propose to share my thoughts on a matter of concern to all of us, namely, "India's Internal Security Challenges".
Abstract: (2003). India's internal security challenges. Strategic Analysis: Vol. 27, No. 4, pp. 503-515.
TL;DR: This paper aims to study the past patterns of exploitation of ICT by domestic and international terrorists to predict the future eventualities so that they can adopt preventive measures in a pro‐active manner.
Abstract: Almost every new technology developed has brought great benefits attached with some risks. To each ‘technology’, there is an ‘anti‐technology’, making it a double edged weapon. But whatever be the ...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors look at the manner of conduct of military training cooperation by India and examine the areas where this cooperation can be suitably enhanced by adopting a more concerted approach to peacetime military diplomacy, in consonance with foreign policy.
Abstract: Military diplomacy has long been one of the essential constituents of international diplomacy and an effective methodology, to foster bilateral and regional relationships. Military training cooperation is an essential component of military diplomacy and helps to build close ties with other nations. Such cooperation also helps to strengthen strategic security relationships and address common security concerns. The Indian armed forces have rich expertise of operating in varied terrain, as also live combat experience in a vast spectrum of operations. This potential can therefore, be utilised to partake in training activities with other countries, to build close military ties and healthy, mutually beneficial bilateral relations. The paper looks at the manner of conduct of military training cooperation by India and examines the areas where this cooperation can be suitably enhanced by adopting a more concerted approach to peacetime military diplomacy, in consonance with foreign policy.
TL;DR: The authors examines the changing dynamics of the interface between diplomacy and news media with emphasis on the Indian context and concludes that despite the emerging role of media in diplomacy, the media-diplomacy relationship has been quite uncomfortable over the years.
Abstract: This paper attempts to examine the changing dynamics of the interface between diplomacy and news media with emphasis on the Indian context. American examples, opinions and trends have been taken into consideration to impart a comparative perspective to the paper. It has been carried out in the light of the brief history of diplomatic reporting in India, the linkages and issues involved in the relationship between the Indian Foreign Office and media as well as the role and limitations of television in the formulation and conduct of foreign policy. The dominant theme of the paper is that, despite the emerging role of media in diplomacy, the media-diplomacy relationship has been quite uncomfortable over the years.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that Bangladesh is in the midst of a host of internal crises which could potentially undermine long-term national stability and the consolidation of democracy along with checks and balances, greater accommodation and tolerance of political differences, are essential if Bangladesh were to avoid the return of military rule.
Abstract: Unlike many Third World countries, Bangladesh has remained relatively stable and peaceful and escaped from major internal upheavals. While the democratic transition in 1991 was slow and painful, democratic change of governments has become the norm. Leaders are changed through ballots and not bullets and power oscillates between the two principal parties. Despite these developments, Bangladesh is in the midst of a host of internal crises which could potentially undermine long-term national stability. The polity, is dominated by changing national identities, growing Islamic fervour in the society, personalised politics, weak institution building, absence of political accountability, lack of responsible opposition and worsening law and order situation leading to the induction of the military in civic duties. Individually these factors are neither unique to Bangladesh nor a serious challenge to its stability. As the paper would argue, Bangladesh belied the promise of democracy it held out at the time of its foundation. This paper seeks to understand the dynamics of the developments that Bangladesh is in the grips of. Pre-occupied with personal animosities and rivalries, the government of the day is unable to address the basic issues such as protection of lives and Properties of ordinary citizens. The introduction of special courts, tough legislations and military assistance could partly remedy the situation. The consolidation of democracy along with checks and balances, greater accommodation and tolerance of political differences, are essential if Bangladesh were to avoid the return of military rule.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyse Pakistan's nuclear strategy in the context of first, its threat perception, second, its plan to achieve parity with India and third, its objective after the tests to portray Kashmir as a nuclear flashpoint to persuade the world community's indulgence and intervention to resolve the issue.
Abstract: The debate on the rationale for Pakistan's possession of nuclear weapons, the concept of nuclear deterrence and the security of Pakistan has been intertwined. Many Pakistani defence analysts see both deterrence and security as synonymous. This paper analyses Pakistan's nuclear strategy in the context of first, its threat perception, second, its plan to achieve parity with India and third, its objective after the tests to portray Kashmir as a nuclear flashpoint to persuade the world community's indulgence and intervention to resolve the issue. Pakistan, like India, has maintained nuclear ambiguity and mentioned the deterrence value of its nuclear strategy. This paper also analyses Pakistan's nuclear diplomacy from the perspective of its security and discusses its nuclear doctrine, its nuclear strategy in the context of the Kargil conflict and the recent standoff with India to examine the extent to which it has been able to achieve its objectives of nuclear deterrence. The ambit of the paper furthe...
TL;DR: Guerrilla warfare is not a new phenomenon and history is witness to its repeated occurrence as discussed by the authors, it acquired prominence during the Napoleonic Wars which led to an examination of its role by leading nineteenth-century thinkers including Clausewitz, Jomini, Marx and Engels.
Abstract: Guerrilla warfare is not a new phenomenon and history is witness to its repeated occurrence. In the modern era, it acquired prominence during the Napoleonic Wars which led to an examination of its role by leading nineteenth‐century thinkers including Clausewitz, Jomini, Marx and Engels. Over the course of the subsequent century, the concept and practice of guerrilla warfare was integrated within social, economic and political programmes that aimed to overthrow established authority and transform society through an armed struggle. The link that was forged in the mid‐nineteenth century by Italian and Polish revolutionaries like Carlo Bianco and Mazzini achieved fruition in the writings and practice of Mao tse‐Tung in the twentieth century. This paper traces such conceptualisations of guerrilla‐warfare.
TL;DR: In this article, the concept of Network Centric Warfare (NCW) has been introduced in the military domain, where the power of a force grows proportionate to the extent of networking among the weapons, sensors and the command and control (C2) elements.
Abstract: The Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) moves on the wheels of Technology, Doctrine and Organisation; however, the main support structure, which gives it the predominant strength, is undoubtedly the technology. The changing concepts of warfare are driven by the available technology of the times. While sophisticated weapons and sensors have greatly enhanced combat efficiency, developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) have enabled greater connectivity and information sharing among widely spread force components. The concept of networking in business enterprises has found an equivalent in warfare in what is now referred to as ‘Network Centric Warfare (NCW)’. NCW rests on the premise that the power of a force grows proportionate to the extent of networking among the weapons, sensors and the command and control (C2) elements, quite akin to Metcalf Law, which is applicable to any network. NCW not only enhances situational awareness, it is expected to drastically reduce the time fo...
TL;DR: The US war against terrorism in Afghanistan has drawn China closer to the US and set new parameters for Sino-Indian relationship as mentioned in this paper, and the scare of terrorism has forged a global coalition and middle powers have few options to choose independent policies.
Abstract: Policies of the developed world continue to affect the domestic as well as foreign policies of China and India in the post‐Cold War period. The US war against terrorism in Afghanistan has drawn China closer to the US. This has set new parameters for Sino‐Indian relationship. Economic reasons dominated the relations among nations in the 1990s, but the scare of terrorism has forged a global coalition and middle powers have few options to choose independent policies.
TL;DR: In this paper, international law now intends to cross the Rubicon and reach out for criminals hiding behind the veil of secrecy, inspired by the increasing brutality and emboldened by the collapse of ideological barriers.
Abstract: Appalled by the increasing brutality and emboldened by the collapse of ideological barriers, international law now intends to cross the rubicon and reach out for criminals hiding behind the veil of...
TL;DR: Kaliningrad oblast as discussed by the authors is a special case of Russian regions because of its geographic separation from the rest of Russia and it is cut off from the mainland by three foreign states, Belarus, Lithuania and Poland, which exacerbates Kaliningrad's political, economic, security and psychological challenges.
Abstract: The Russian oblast’ (meaning ‘region’ in Russian) of Kaliningrad has gained significance in recent years. It is located where Russia is exposed not just to the forces of European integration but also to globalisation at large. The oblast’ also stands out as a special case because of its geographic separation from the rest of Russia. It is cut off from the mainland by three foreign states, Belarus, Lithuania and Poland, which exacerbates Kaliningrad’s political, economic, security and psychological challenges. More importantly, in the next few years when Poland and Lithuania accede to the European Union (EU), Kaliningrad will become not just a Russian oblast’ outside Russia but also a Russian oblast’ geographically within the EU. Its problems will become EU’s problems too and EU actions will have a huge impact upon Kaliningrad.
TL;DR: In this paper, the Maoists' core demands revolve around issues which seemed to have been settled in the 1990 Constitution, and the authors raise the question why Maoists are opening these issues now? Why do they have a problem in accepting the 1990 constitution?
Abstract: The Maoist insurgency which began in February 1996 is the major security challenge facing Nepal, having affected almost all the 75 districts of the country. The Maoists’ core demands—an interim government, an elected Constituent Assembly to frame a new Constitution, a republican state— revolve around issues which seemed to have been settled in the 1990 Constitution. This Constitution was promulgated following a people's movement marking a transition from a party‐less panchayat system to a multi‐party democracy with Constitutional monarchy and sovereignty resting with the people. The paper raises the question—why are the Maoists opening these issues now? Why do they have a problem in accepting the 1990 Constitution? The paper argues that to answer these questions it is necessary to revisit the events of 1990. The findings show that the Maoists’ demands have similarities with the grievances articulated in 1990 by various political parties and ethnic groups. The paper concludes that the Maoist insur...
TL;DR: The withdrawal of military assistance to Nigeria on March 23, 2003 should be seen as a strong protest against Nigerian reservations on the US-led war on Iraq rather than a complete end to it as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: The official position of USA and Nigeria in favour of military cooperation rather than a military pact does not necessarily demean its value in defence and strategic thinking. The withdrawal of military assistance to Nigeria on March 23, 2003 should be seen as a strong protest against Nigerian reservations on the US‐led war on Iraq rather than a complete end to it. Though military cooperation will strengthen capacity building and influence of Nigeria in military affairs, Nigeria needs to probe beyond appearances to ensure a new thinking for enriching the strategic value of military cooperation.
TL;DR: For their success, terrorists adopt unconventional methods in their operations as discussed by the authors and follow strict discipline to maintain secrecy of their operations, movements, and other activities, and are highly motivated for survival against all odds and with the desire to succeed.
Abstract: Terrorism in the state of Jammu and Kashmir has completed almost 15 years. It marked its arrival with blasts in Srinagar city in 1988 and subsequently expanded to other parts in a well‐planned and organised manner. It has the ingredients of a professionally run movement. Initially, majority of the terrorists were locals who had crossed over to Pakistan in large groups in 1987 and returned after obtaining training, but gradually the foreigners, mostly Pakistanis, replaced them. Locals or foreigners, terrorists depend fully on the public support—obtained voluntarily or through coercion. For their success terrorists adopt unconventional methods in their operations. Though their masters guide them from across the border, yet terrorists follow strict discipline to maintain secrecy of their operations, movements, and other activities. They are highly motivated for survival against all odds and with the desire to succeed in their mission. Whereas terrorists’ modus operandi have undergone change over the...
TL;DR: This article argued that globalisation is far from being inclusive and argued that the few big beneficiaries of globalisation are playing a mind game to create a new world which does not adhere to the existing norms and patterns.
Abstract: This paper is an attempt to understand the enigma that is globalisation. The paper relies on the global capitalism approach, which locates the dominant global forces in the structure of an ever‐more globalising capitalism. It deals with the role of neo‐liberal globalising forces in the field of global economics; global politics and the role of ideology of consumerism in transnational cultural ideological practices. The paper argues that globalisation is far from being inclusive. To survive and thrive in such an iniquitous world, the few big beneficiaries of globalisation are playing a mind game. The game is to create a new world, which does not adhere to the existing norms and patterns. The agenda is to formulate different rules and prescribes new paradigms based on the primacy of markets in all walks of life. The net result of placing markets as the primary agent of all human endeavours is that today we are witnessing a world where‐economy is building castles in air; politics is suffering from c...
TL;DR: The United Nations was founded on the principles of sovereign equality of its member states as discussed by the authors and the sovereignty exercised by states in their domestic jurisdiction and external relations was to be upheld in the conduct of international relations especially through the UN.
Abstract: The United Nations was founded on the principles of sovereign equality of its member states. The sovereignty exercised by states in their domestic jurisdiction and external relations was to be upheld in the conduct of international relations especially through the UN. However, the recent developments culminating in the United States‐led war in Iraq have raised several doubts about the efficacy of the UN in preserving the sovereignty of its member‐states while maintaining international peace and security. This paper attempts to focus on the recent Iraq crisis. It analyses the close involvement of the UN in Iraq for over a decade beginning from the 1990 Iraqi occupation of Kuwait. Many Security Council resolutions became the basis of the deep entrenchment of the UN in the political, economic and security issues of Iraq. The present crisis in Iraq is a reflection of the enormous potential and capability of the UN to engage itself in resolving a conflict and the limitations of that exercise. The UN, ...
TL;DR: A deeper examination of the process of military innovation is also essential since innovation is a prerequisite for any revolution, and thus has a direct bearing on the ongoing debate about RMA as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: Military innovation is peculiar and distinctive, and has no direct parallels. The military environment itself, with focus on hierachy, discipline and tradition makes innovation a daunting challenge. The process is further influenced by civil-military relations and metrics used for measuring effectiveness of innovative efforts. Factors influencing the process of military innovation vary when examining innovation at the policy and strategy level, at the doctrinal level, during peacetime and under conditions of war. A deeper examination of the process is also essential since innovation is a prerequisite for any revolution, and thus has a direct bearing on the ongoing debate about RMA. There is no single source to which success or failure to innovate can be attributed. Innovation in the military is more a cultural than functional issue, and mere exaltation is unlikely to make a military more innovative. It is the creation of a carefully nurtured environment and a suitable framework based on empowerment, adequate risk-acceptance and creation of suitable career paths that can spur innovation. — * — If you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost; that is where they should be. Now put the foundations under them.