Showing papers in "Survival in 2011"
TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss the political and strategic context in which new cyber threats are emerging, and the effects the worm has generated in this respect, and suggest that cyber offers great potential for striking at enemies with less risk than using traditional military means, but careful strategic thought is required in comparing the cost and benefits of cyber versus traditional military attack.
Abstract: The discovery in June 2010 that a cyber worm dubbed ‘Stuxnet’ had struck the Iranian nuclear facility at Natanz suggested that, for cyber war, the future is now. Yet more important is the political and strategic context in which new cyber threats are emerging, and the effects the worm has generated in this respect. Perhaps most striking is the confluence between cyber crime and state action. States are capitalising on technology whose development is driven by cyber crime, and perhaps outsourcing cyber attacks to non-attributable third parties, including criminal organisations. Cyber offers great potential for striking at enemies with less risk than using traditional military means. It is unclear how much the Stuxnet program cost, but it was almost certainly less than the cost of single fighter-bomber. Yet if damage from cyber attacks can be quickly repaired, careful strategic thought is required in comparing the cost and benefits of cyber versus traditional military attack. One important benefit of cyber ...
621 citations
TL;DR: The question of whether climate change was one of the causes of popular protests and uprisings that swept the Arab countries of North Africa and the Middle East since January has been investigated by as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: Was climate change one of the causes of the wave of popular protests and uprisings that has swept the Arab countries of North Africa and the Middle East since January? At first blush, the question ...
183 citations
TL;DR: The EU's inactivity in the face of a crisis with obvious security implications for its member states has led to anguished soul searching as mentioned in this paper, and the EU's unwillingness to take action has been criticised.
Abstract: The EU's inactivity in the face of a crisis with obvious security implications for its member states has led to anguished soul searching.
82 citations
TL;DR: The cyber power of a nation does not necessarily derive solely from the number of government cyber warriors it has, but rather the sum total of resources or capabilities it can leverage to support political goals as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: The cyber power of a nation does not necessarily derive solely from the number of government cyber warriors it has, but rather the sum total of resources or capabilities it can leverage to support political goals. A major portion of these cyber capabilities are invariably outside of direct government control, and reside in the non-state (business and civil-society) sector. While both China and Russia can be said to co-opt and coerce their non-state cyber elements into integration with public policy, the West mostly depends on voluntary cooperation. Thus, for Western democracies, the most important aspect of cyber power might be the ability to motivate and attract its own citizens – and thus create a whole-of-nation cyber power capability based on an inward-focused soft power approach.
59 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a small test for the international order is presented and it is shown that rough norms not underpinned by an underlying, shared security concept will not suffice when harder tests come.
Abstract: Libya is a small test for the international order. When harder tests come, rough norms not underpinned by an underlying, shared security concept will not suffice.
37 citations
TL;DR: The much-hoped-for virtuous spiral that would lift Egypt and the broader Arab world out of economic stagnation and strengthen democracy seems far away as discussed by the authors, which is a concern.
Abstract: The much-hoped-for virtuous spiral that would lift Egypt and the broader Arab world out of economic stagnation and strengthen democracy seems far away.
31 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that Pakistan's reliance on LeT will only deepen as security conditions within that country continue to deteriorate, and that there is little the United States can do in response.
Abstract: Pakistan's reliance upon LeT will only deepen as security conditions within that country continue to deteriorate. There is little the United States can do in response.
30 citations
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TL;DR: On 20 March 2011 French air-strikes destroyed a Gadhafi regime column about to storm Benghazi as mentioned in this paper, and attacks on Libyan air defences followed quickly. Two weeks later, command of the military operation to...
Abstract: On 20 March 2011 French air-strikes destroyed a Gadhafi regime column about to storm Benghazi. Attacks on Libyan air defences followed quickly. Two weeks later, command of the military operation to...
28 citations
TL;DR: As Iran's nuclear programme edges closer to nuclear capability, the nations concerned about this prospect have centred on sanctions as their favoured policy tool as discussed by the authors. But they find this foolhardy becaus...
Abstract: As Iran's nuclear programme edges closer to weapons capability, the nations concerned about this prospect have centred on sanctions as their favoured policy tool. Critics find this foolhardy becaus...
28 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors place an ecological security lens on regional cooperation and raise an important question about the extent to which the threat of large-scale climate-related disaster could trigger new forms of cooperative action.
Abstract: The Tibetan Plateau is the largest high-altitude landmass on Earth, with more than 45,000 glaciers that feed the major river systems in Asia, which in turn support 40% of the world's population. As global warming continues, temperatures in the region are rising twice as fast as the global average, posing serious risks to hydrological systems, agriculture and critical infrastructure. Placing an ecological security lens on regional cooperation raises an important question about the extent to which the threat of large-scale climate-related disaster could trigger new forms of cooperative action. Current responses fall far short of ensuring a mutually secure future.
27 citations
TL;DR: A Turkish failure to adequately address Kurdish concerns in drafting the new constitution could undercut its ability to act as a successful model for peaceful democratic change in the Middle East as discussed by the authors, which is a serious concern.
Abstract: A Turkish failure to adequately address Kurdish concerns in drafting the new constitution could undercut its ability to act as a successful model for peaceful democratic change in the Middle East.
TL;DR: As the Middle East undergoes upheaval and transformation, Europe has an interest and a responsibility to expand its cooperation with the region's states as mentioned in this paper, and Europe has a role to play in this process.
Abstract: As the Middle East undergoes upheaval and transformation, Europe has an interest and a responsibility to expand its cooperation with the region's states.
TL;DR: Ten rules can be formulated to focus debate on the quality and interpretation of existing frameworks and the need for new ones on the response to cyber threats.
Abstract: The response to cyber threats cuts across several areas of law. Ten rules can be formulated to focus debate on the quality and interpretation of existing frameworks and the need for new ones.
TL;DR: The anti-American sentiments and conspiracy theories perpetuated by Pakistan's independent media pose a great challenge to U.S. diplomacy as discussed by the authors, and they must be addressed by the United States.
Abstract: Anti-American sentiments and conspiracy theories perpetuated by Pakistan's independent media pose a great challenge to US diplomacy.
TL;DR: The three million square kilometres of the South China Sea are of particular strategic importance as mentioned in this paper, and sovereignty over a plethora of small islands, atolls, rocks and coral reefs, including the two mai...
Abstract: The three million square kilometres of the South China Sea are of particular strategic importance. Sovereignty over a plethora of small islands, atolls, rocks and coral reefs, including the two mai...
TL;DR: Al-Qaeda's future depends not only on how its core leadership responds to bin Laden's death, but also on the reaction of groups that have adopted the al-Qaeda brand.
Abstract: Al-Qaeda's future depends not only on how its core leadership responds to bin Laden's death, but also on the reaction of groups that have adopted the al-Qaeda brand.
TL;DR: The journey from Jeddah is relatively unremarkable, with mostly desert to both sides for the bu... as mentioned in this paper, and there is a security perimeter and a turn-off.
Abstract: About an hour north of Jeddah, in western Saudi Arabia, there is a security perimeter and a turn-off. The journey from Jeddah is relatively unremarkable, with mostly desert to both sides for the bu...
TL;DR: Toppling existing regimes, without policies for serious economic reform and to reduce population growth, will do little to resolve the crisis of the Arab world as mentioned in this paper. But it will not solve the problem of terrorism.
Abstract: Toppling existing regimes, without policies for serious economic reform and to reduce population growth, will do little to resolve the crisis of the Arab world.
TL;DR: The army may not oppose a civilian president, but it wants to maintain four things: its privileges, stability, peace with Israel and its relationship with the US as mentioned in this paper, which is not the case in the US.
Abstract: The army may not oppose a civilian president, but it wants to maintain four things: its privileges, stability, peace with Israel and its relationship with the US.
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TL;DR: One, often neglected, way to measure the health of the NATO alliance is through an exploration of European weapons-procurement policy as discussed by the authors. But neither should transatlantic efforts to shape the defence acquisition environment be dismissed as tangential to security policy.
Abstract: One, often neglected, way to measure the health of the NATO alliance is through an exploration of European weapons-procurement policy. To be sure, weapons-procurement decisions only provide a single case study with respect to alliance relations - hardly a complete view of the political landscape. But neither should transatlantic efforts to shape the defence acquisition environment be dismissed as tangential to security policy. Ever since its inception, NATO has striven to promote the 'rationalisation, standardisation and inter-operability' of alliance weaponry. From this defence-industrial perspective, the alliance has made great strides over the past decade. For its part, the United States has undertaken a major reform of its technology-transfer bureaucracy, with the aim of promoting more transatlantic weapons collaboration. Alongside that development, the Europeans have engaged in a radical restructuring of their defence industries, making them bigger and more competitive. These changes suggest continui...
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TL;DR: Fears that Libya will become the next Somalia are probably over-blown, but any democratic transition is likely to be protracted and fragile as discussed by the authors, and any successful democratic transition in any country is difficult and uncertain.
Abstract: Fears that Libya will become the next Somalia are probably over-blown, but any democratic transition is likely to be protracted and fragile.
TL;DR: In 2011, the United States, Japan and Australia held their first joint naval exercise in the South China Sea as mentioned in this paper, where only three vessels were involved, the exercise was the latest in a seri...
Abstract: On 9 July 2011, the United States, Japan and Australia held their first joint naval exercise in the South China Sea. Although only three vessels were involved, the exercise was the latest in a seri...
TL;DR: Despite the doom and gloom about the Afghanistan campaign, in political and military terms NATO may yet emerge as a leaner and more effective organisation as mentioned in this paper, despite the hopelessness of the war in Afghanistan.
Abstract: Despite the doom and gloom about the Afghanistan campaign, in political and military terms NATO may yet emerge as a leaner and more effective organisation.
TL;DR: The use of these paramilitaries also suggests an ongoing desire among regional countries to unequivocally enforce their claims to disputed maritime areas as discussed by the authors, but they do not suggest any political will to resolve them through negotiations.
Abstract: Maritime paramilitary forces are being expanded and increasingly used as foreign-policy tools in East Asia. Such forces are less likely to be involved in significant military clashes and any incidents that arise from their activities are usually containable. However, their use also means diplomatic crises are more common, as maritime paramilitaries are more likely to use force or come under attack themselves. Events such as the detention of a Chinese trawler captain for one month, the arrest of a Vietnamese fisherman for a similar length of time and the death of a Chinese fisherman in a clash with the South Korean coast guard have underlined this trend. The use of these paramilitaries also suggests an ongoing desire among regional countries to unequivocally enforce their claims to disputed maritime areas. While they may suggest a ‘demilitarised’ policy to deal with these disputes, they do not suggest any political will to resolve them through negotiations. Although it may mean less chance of a military cl...
TL;DR: For the men and women in the US intelligence community responsible for tracking down Osama bin Laden, the news that US special forces had carried out a textbook raid on his compound in Abbottabad w...
Abstract: For the men and women in the US intelligence community responsible for tracking down Osama bin Laden, the news that US special forces had carried out a textbook raid on his compound in Abbottabad w...
TL;DR: In an increasingly globalised environment, the traditional state-centric means of responding to terrorism will not be sufficient and may even be counterproductive as mentioned in this paper, and to be effective, American strategy must change fundamentally: the threat requires a flexible, broad-based globalised strategy, seamlessly incorporating international economic, political, legal, diplomatic, cultural and military elements.
Abstract: Terrorism is an act of political violence aimed not only at innocent civilians, but at the legitimacy of the state. Twenty-first century terrorism is gradually shifting away from direct state sponsorship and toward more amorphous groups, often having access to state resources but less and less likely to be under the control of the state itself. In an increasingly globalised environment, the traditional state-centric means of responding to terrorism will not be sufficient and may even be counterproductive. Thus, to be effective, American strategy must change fundamentally: the threat requires a flexible, broad-based globalised strategy, seamlessly incorporating international economic, political, legal, diplomatic, cultural and military elements. International terrorism is not dangerous because it can defeat the United States and its allies in a war, but because by marshalling unprecedented destructive power it can destroy the integrity of the state by undermining its ability to protect its citizens from di...
TL;DR: The Party of God wants to be recognized as a legitimate actor on the global level, and its track record suggests it is likely to survive as mentioned in this paper. But it is not a party that can be trusted.
Abstract: The ‘Party of God’ wants to be recognised as a legitimate actor on the global level, and its track record suggests it is likely to survive.
TL;DR: No matter what assurances Washington provides, many in China are concerned that the United States is becoming increasingly uneasy about China's emergence and will try to prevent it as discussed by the authors, and they are concerned about their own security.
Abstract: No matter what assurances Washington provides, many in China are concerned that the United States is becoming increasingly uneasy about China's emergence and will try to prevent it.
TL;DR: For much of the past two decades, America's approach toward the Asia-Pacific has been seen by many as highly disjointed, the product either of strategic inattention or the push and pull of US domes as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: For much of the past two decades, America's approach toward the Asia-Pacific has been seen by many as highly disjointed, the product either of strategic inattention or the push and pull of US domes...
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TL;DR: An American who spends any time in Europe, if not elsewhere in the world, will sooner or later encounter the prejudice, often expressed anecdotally, that his compatriots are ignorant of the world.
Abstract: An American who spends any time in Europe, if not elsewhere in the world, will sooner or later encounter the prejudice, often expressed anecdotally, that his compatriots are ignorant of the world, ...