Showing papers in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 1987"

TL;DR: The authors' energy system will grow beyond today's imagination requiring a rethinking of its structure to make it compatible with the context, and market substitution analysis is used to project the evolution of the world energy system during the next 200 years.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors evaluated the productivity effects of the second technological revolution in the United States and found that as capital intensity grew without compensating benefits, capital productivity began a sharp decline which has continued for a quarter century.

TL;DR: A system dynamics simulation model which was developed to study the diffusion of medical technologies but which should be applicable to other sorts of technologies as well is reported on.

TL;DR: Traditional assumptions about the proper methods for analyzing a Delphi study may be inappropriate, and the use of robust estimates of location as summaries of expert opinion yield better forecasts than nonrobust measures.

TL;DR: In this paper, the Bhopal chemical accident of December 2-3, 1984 is viewed using this concept and the organizational and personal perspectives are shown their role in illuminating the case and evoking insights.

TL;DR: In this paper, the potential of using simple logistic curves for forecasting electricity consumption is investigated with reference to New Zealand sectoral data using a Fibonacci search technique to establish optimal asymptotes.

TL;DR: In this paper, the advantages and disadvantages of each approach are discussed along with case study examples from the key practitioners such as SRI International, The Futures Group, The Center for Futures Research, and Battelle Columbus Division.

TL;DR: In this paper, the events preceding and following the accidental release of methylisocyanate (MIC) at Union Carbide's Bhopal, India, plant are examined.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors combine these observations with M. King Hubbert's analysis of our industrial culture of exponential growth to produce a comprehensive theory of long wave cycles, which states that long wave cycle is caused, for the most part, by the rapid growth of key technologies which ultimately strain the supply of natural resources upon which they are based.

TL;DR: In this paper, a version of Darwinian ideas in the form of Lotka's equations of competition between species as an analogy, air transport and other elements of the transportation infrastructure are examined.

TL;DR: In this article, a deterministic model for diffusion of innovation in a population for which this assumption is inappropriate is presented, where the population of interest is divided into two spatially separated groups.

TL;DR: The evolving workforce of home-based workers is difficult to survey partly because common descriptors such as “home,” “office, and “work” are taking on new meaning as discussed by the authors.

TL;DR: In this article, a family of data-based transformed models for technology substitution analysis is proposed, including Fisher-Pry, Gompertz, Weibull, and Normal.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a theory of substitution in which the substitution curve is derived from an underlying theory of competition between old and new technology, and show how the relative outputs and relative prices of the products associated with old and New technologies are simultaneously determined.

TL;DR: In this article, it was shown that the data provided examples of precursors which could be used to illustrate the monitoring technique and that it was possible to extend the technique through the generation of probability distributions.

TL;DR: In this article, the Global Early Warning System for Displaced Persons (GEWS) is described based on the FUGI global modeling concept and its development is termed the Global early warning system for disassociation.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors model the dynamic behavior of the firm and the university, intricately linked together in their respective research efforts by research personnel and faculty exchanges to each other's organization.

TL;DR: Two problems associated with the use of technology in the study of evolution toward war or peace are explored, and some features of strategies adaptive or maladaptive to turbulent-field environments, and the possible emergence of a vortical environment following maladaption are discussed.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors used the Policy Delphi approach to identify and select critical, operational, and future-oriented policy statements concerning energy conservation, to obtain the consensus of experts in the field, and to estimate the potential utility of the technique in studying energy conservation policy planning.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explored the social resource and opportunity costs of fundamental science utilizing a model which integrates a) the determinants of the talent distribution of the cadre of fundamental scientists, b) the relationship of individual scientific productivity to scientific talent, c) the scientific value of aggregate scientific product, and d) the value of scientific personnel in nonscientific pursuits.

TL;DR: This paper addresses the general issue of manufacturing as a system-determined science by providing a taxonomy of manufacturing problems and unequivocally answering the question as to whether there is a significant systems component to most problems of modern manufacturing.

TL;DR: This paper present a stepwise assessment of three levels of assumptions of futures studies: epistemological assumptions about the realm of experience, paradigmatic assumptions about problem-formulation, and technical assumptions about formulation of empirical hypotheses.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore the possibility of broadening the economic theories of technological change by incorporating military influence and identify likely areas of military-civilian synergism through the evaluation of military interest.

TL;DR: In this article, a simple logistic model of market substitution has been applied to situations where price and cost parameters vary in time, in such cases the market share does not necessarily evolve as a monotonous function of time.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined approaches to financing scientific and technological development in the Third World and examined the successful Korean experience and the requisites of the financial institution in its mediating role between industry and the research establishment.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the dynamics of technological change, a hypothesis on productivity dynamics, and likely shifts in organizational structure, and analyzes major problems likely to be faced by developing countries in getting prepared for the future.

TL;DR: The application of generation dynamics, a methodology for technological forecasting, is widespread in computer-integrated manufacturing systems (CIMS), and acceptance of experts’ opinions on generation dynamics in other areas to be integrated by CIMS helps the forecasts to be mutually reinforcing and self-fulfilling.