Showing papers in "The Journal of Politics in 2018"
TL;DR: This paper found that people tend to considerably overestimate the extent to which party supporters belong to party-steregategies, and that this bias affects the way they perceive the major political parties.
Abstract: We document a large and consequential bias in how Americans perceive the major political parties: people tend to considerably overestimate the extent to which party supporters belong to party-stere...
213 citations
TL;DR: In recent years, Americans have become more affectively polarized: that is, ordinary Democrats and Republicans increasingly dislike and distrust members of the opposing party as discussed by the authors, and such polarization is called affective polarization.
Abstract: In recent years, Americans have become more affectively polarized: that is, ordinary Democrats and Republicans increasingly dislike and distrust members of the opposing party. Such polarization is ...
178 citations
TL;DR: The rapid expansion of electoral gender quotas in the past few decades has been met with considerable scholarly and public attention as mentioned in this paper. Despite this, there has been little empirical work examining th...
Abstract: The rapid expansion of electoral gender quotas in the past few decades has been met with considerable scholarly and public attention. Despite this, there has been little empirical work examining th...
115 citations
TL;DR: The authors explore whether the length of the employed personality scales aff ect ect aff ect with the political scientists who study the interplay between personality and politics overwhelmingly rely on short personality scales, and they find that long scales perform better than short scales.
Abstract: Political scientists who study the interplay between personality and politics overwhelmingly rely on short personality scales. We explore whether the length of the employed personality scales affec...
99 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors use an original survey of donors to party campaign committees and women's political action committees to find out why Democratic women seek and hold office more frequently than Republican women.
Abstract: Why do Democratic women seek and hold office more frequently than Republican women? We use an original survey of donors to party campaign committees and women’s political action committees to answe...
93 citations
TL;DR: The authors reassess Achen and Bartels' claim that shark attacks influence presidential elections and assemble data on every fatal shark attack in US history and county-level statistics. But their work is limited.
Abstract: We reassess Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels’s prominent claim that shark attacks influence presidential elections. First, we assemble data on every fatal shark attack in US history and county-l...
84 citations
TL;DR: This article found that public preferences are weakly constrained, and the configuration of preferences is multidimensional, but the latent traits of these dimensions are highly correlated, indicating that preferences are not simply split along a proregime or antiregime cleavage.
Abstract: The study of ideology in authoritarian regimes—of how public preferences are configured and constrained—has received relatively little scholarly attention. Using data from a large-scale online survey, we study ideology in China. We find that public preferences are weakly constrained, and the configuration of preferences is multidimensional, but the latent traits of these dimensions are highly correlated. Those who prefer authoritarian rule are more likely to support nationalism, state intervention in the economy, and traditional social values; those who prefer democratic institutions and values are more likely to support market reforms but less likely to be nationalistic and less likely to support traditional social values. This latter set of preferences appears more in provinces with higher levels of development and among wealthier and better-educated respondents. These findings suggest that preferences are not simply split along a proregime or antiregime cleavage and indicate a possible link between Chi...
83 citations
TL;DR: This article cast doubt on whether police commanders can control officers, and offer few solutions to the problem of police misbehavior in the context of law enforcement reform, concluding that "there are few solutions that offer few po...
Abstract: High-profile incidents of police misconduct have led to widespread calls for law enforcement reform. But prior studies cast doubt on whether police commanders can control officers, and offer few po...
81 citations
TL;DR: The authors presented the first longitudinal evidence that declining local political news coverage is reducing citizen engagement, drawing on a content analysis of more than 10,000 stories about US House camp campers.
Abstract: We present the first longitudinal evidence that declining local political news coverage is reducing citizen engagement. Drawing on a content analysis of more than 10,000 stories about US House camp...
81 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, foreign aid donors make themselves visible as the funders of development projects to improve citizen attitudes abroad, but do target populations receive these political communications in the intended f...
Abstract: Foreign aid donors make themselves visible as the funders of development projects to improve citizen attitudes abroad. Do target populations receive these political communications in the intended f...
75 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discuss the problems with administrative records of voter identification laws and their effect on voter turnout among racial and ethnic minority voters in the United States, and present empirical evaluations of these laws crucial.
Abstract: Widespread concern that voter identification laws suppress turnout among racial and ethnic minorities has made empirical evaluations of these laws crucial. But problems with administrative records ...
TL;DR: The manifestations of party polarization in America are well known: legislative gridlock, harsh elite rhetoric, and at the level of the electorate, increasing hostility across the partisan divide as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: The manifestations of party polarization in America are well known: legislative gridlock, harsh elite rhetoric, and at the level of the electorate, increasing hostility across the partisan divide
TL;DR: This paper conducted a survey experiment to investigate whether hard propaganda is effective in sustaining authoritarian rule and found that heavy-handed propaganda messages on society can be effective in supporting authoritarian rule in the long run.
Abstract: Authoritarian governments often impose crude and heavy-handed propaganda messages on society. Is such hard propaganda effective in sustaining authoritarian rule? With an original survey experiment ...
TL;DR: The authors assess the extent to which subscription to political rumors represents genuine beliefs as opposed to expressive responses, and they find that the incidence of expressive responding is very small, though somewhat larger for Democrats than Republicans.
Abstract: Large numbers of Americans endorse political rumors on surveys. But do they truly believe what they say? In this paper, I assess the extent to which subscription to political rumors represents genuine beliefs as opposed to expressive responses—rumor endorsements designed to express opposition to politicians and policies rather than genuine belief in false information. I ran several experiments, each designed to reduce expressive responding on two topics: among Republicans on the question of whether Barack Obama is a Muslim and among Democrats on whether members of the federal government had advance knowledge about 9/11. The null results of all experiments lead to the same conclusion: the incidence of expressive responding is very small, though somewhat larger for Democrats than Republicans. These results suggest that survey responses serve as a window into the underlying beliefs and true preferences of the mass public.
TL;DR: The authors explored the reverse relationship between partisan identities and political attitudes and behaviors, and found that partisan identities are not strong enough to in fact shape political attitudes or behaviors. But they can shape social identities.
Abstract: Scholars have consistently shown that social identities can shape political attitudes and behaviors; this article explores the reverse relationship. Are partisan identities ever strong enough to in...
TL;DR: The authors assess the relationship between accountability and gender using a survey vignette experiment fielded in the United Kingdom in which voters choose between a hypothetical incumbent (who could be male or female, corrupt or non-corrupt) and another candidate.
Abstract: Previous research suggests that female politicians face higher standards in public life, perhaps in part because female voters expect more from female politicians than from male politicians. Most of this research is based on observational evidence. We assess the relationship between accountability and gender using a novel survey vignette experiment fielded in the United Kingdom in which voters choose between a hypothetical incumbent (who could be male or female, corrupt or noncorrupt) and another candidate. We do not find that female politicians face significantly greater punishment for misconduct. However, the effect of politician gender on punishment varies by voter gender, with female voters in particular more likely to punish female politicians for misconduct. Our findings have implications for research on how descriptive representation affects electoral accountability and on why corruption tends to correlate negatively with women’s representation.
TL;DR: The authors show that political competition and movement strength are robust predictors of support for women's suffrage in state legislatures in 45 states from 1893 to 1920, and that strong suffrage movement reinforces these incentives by providing information and infrastructure that parties can capitalize on in future elections.
Abstract: A long-standing puzzle in American political development is why western states extended voting rights to women before states in the East. Building on theories of democratization and women’s suffrage, I argue that politicians have incentives to seek out new voters in competitive political environments. A strong suffrage movement reinforces these incentives by providing information and infrastructure that parties can capitalize on in future elections. If politicians believe they can mobilize the latent female vote, then large movements and competitive political environments should produce franchise expansion. Using data on legislative decisions pertaining to suffrage in 45 states from 1893 to 1920, I show that political competition and movement strength are robust predictors of support for women’s suffrage in state legislatures. In the West, fluid partisan politics and relatively strong mobilization produced early reform. Since states determine who voted for national, state, and local offices, these decisio...
TL;DR: The electoral consequences of traditional leaders' power have received little attention, often due to empi... as discussed by the authors, and the fact that traditional leaders are often given subnational authority in developing democracies.
Abstract: Traditional leaders are often given subnational authority in developing democracies. Although ubiquitous, the electoral consequences of their power have received little attention, often due to empi...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors propose a theory of staff-to-staff connections as a human capital asset for Capitol Hill staff and revolving door lobbyists, based on previous work on lobbying and relationships in Congress.
Abstract: Building on previous work on lobbying and relationships in Congress, I propose a theory of staff-to-staff connections as a human capital asset for Capitol Hill staff and revolving door lobbyists. E...
TL;DR: Altruism is an important omitted variable in much of the political economy literature as discussed by the authors, and it is the base of most approaches to redistribution (first affecting preferences and then affecting preferences).
Abstract: Altruism is an important omitted variable in much of the political economy literature. While material self-interest is the base of most approaches to redistribution (first affecting preferences and...
TL;DR: The standard approach in positive political theory posits that action choices are the consequences of preferences as discussed by the authors, while social psychology suggests that cognitive dissonance theory suggests that actions are the consequence of preferences.
Abstract: The standard approach in positive political theory posits that action choices are the consequences of preferences. Social psychology—in particular, cognitive dissonance theory—suggests the opposite...
TL;DR: The authors studied how white and black Americans understand race relations and racial issues and found that race remains at the forefront of the public agenda, and understanding how whites and blacks understand race and race issues has become all the more critical.
Abstract: Race remains at the forefront of the public agenda, and understanding how white and black Americans understand race relations and racial issues has become all the more critical Amid the lively deb
TL;DR: In this article, the authors expect citizen attachments to political parties to wax during election season and predict that voter attachment to political candidates will increase during the election season, given that elections evoke mass mobilization.
Abstract: Elections are defining elements of democracy but occur infrequently Given that elections evoke mass mobilization, we expect citizen attachments to political parties to wax during election season a
TL;DR: While locally embedded bureaucrats may be more willing and able to enhance public goods provisioning in the places that they serve, they may also be more likely to be captured by elite interests as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: While locally embedded bureaucrats may be more willing and able to enhance public goods provisioning in the places that they serve, they may also be more likely to be captured by elite interests. W...
TL;DR: The authors compare Muslim and Christian political advice texts from the medieval period using automated machine learning techniques and find that European modes of political thought diverged from those that existed in other world regions.
Abstract: When did European modes of political thought diverge from those that existed in other world regions? We compare Muslim and Christian political advice texts from the medieval period using automated ...
TL;DR: The authors proposed a reference point theory of economic voting that emphasizes voters' need for reference points when evaluating incumbents' performance, and showed that cross-national benchmarking is not a universal phenomenon and identify the conditions that are positively associated with the electoral salience of relative international performance.
Abstract: How can voters make sense of economic outcomes they observe when deciding whether to reelect the incumbent? I propose a reference point theory of economic voting that emphasizes voters’ need for reference points when evaluating incumbents’ performance. Consideration of economic outcomes during the incumbent’s term relative to recent past outcomes in the country and in a cross-national perspective provides two such reference points, enabling a better assessment of incumbent competence. Analyses of 475 elections in 62 countries over 40 years provide evidence for my theory. Incumbents who preside over relatively better (worse) economic outcomes in domestic and international contexts are rewarded (punished) at the polls, regardless of election-year performance. I also show that cross-national benchmarking is not a universal phenomenon and identify the conditions that are positively associated with the electoral salience of relative international performance. My theory and accompanying evidence highlight that ...
TL;DR: This paper showed that people respond much more strongly to changes in their own finances that are linked to government spending, such as welfare transfers, than to similar changes that are less clearly the responsibility of elected officials.
Abstract: In this paper we revisit the often disregarded ‘pocketbook voting’ thesis that suggests that people evaluate governments based on the state of their own finances. Using data from the British Household Panel Survey over the last 20 years, we measure changes in personal financial circumstances and show that the ‘pocketbook voting’ model works. Crucially, we also argue that the ability to attribute responsibility for these changes to the government matters. People respond much more strongly to changes in their own finances that are linked to government spending, such as welfare transfers, than to similar changes that are less clearly the responsibility of elected officials, such as lower personal earnings. We conclude that pocketbook voting is a real phenomenon, but that more attention should be paid to how people assign credit and blame for changes in their own economic circumstances.
TL;DR: This article showed that white voters are less likely to support the Democratic Party and that this shift is being driven by two mechanisms: the process of ideological sorting and voter apathy, and voter polarization.
Abstract: Whites have become less likely to support the Democratic Party. I show that this shift is being driven by two mechanisms. The first mechanism is the process of ideological sorting. The Democratic P...
TL;DR: The authors found that most of these same individuals also possess an implicit, gut-level distrust in government, and that this distrust makes them distrustful of government more than 50% of the time.
Abstract: How distrustful are people of government? Although large majorities of Americans express distrust in government, we propose that most of these same individuals also possess an implicit, gut-level t...
TL;DR: This article provided a snapshot of the contemporary American party system focusing on similarities and differences in the attitudes of rank-and-file Republicans and Democrats, in contrast to much of the literature.
Abstract: This article provides a snapshot of the contemporary American party system focusing on similarities and differences in the attitudes of rank-and-file Republicans and Democrats. In contrast to much ...