The Quarterly review 

About: The Quarterly review is an academic journal. The journal publishes majorly in the area(s): Monetary policy & Inflation. It has an ISSN identifier of 0012-4079. Over the lifetime, 356 publications have been published receiving 18418 citations.

Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic

Abstract: In his presidential address to the American Economic Association (AEA), Milton Friedman (1968) warned not to expect too much from monetary policy. In particular, Friedman argued that monetary policy could not permanently influence the levels of real output, unemployment, or real rates of return on securities. However, Friedman did assert that a monetary authority could exert substantial control over the inflation rate, especially in the long run. The purpose of this paper is to argue that, even in an economy that satisfies monetarist assumptions, if monetary policy is interpreted as open market operations, then Friedman’s list of the things that monetary policy cannot permanently control may have to be expanded to include inflation.

Are Forecasting Models Usable for Policy Analysis

Abstract: In one of early papers discribing the application of vector autoregression (VAR) models of economics, Thomas Sargent (1979) emphasized of that while such models were usefull for forecasting, they could not be used for policy analysis. Recently this point has been vigorously reasserted, by Sargent (1984)himself and by Edward Learner (1985) among others. The point has required vigirous reassertion because VAR modles are used widely, and few who used them stay pure - in the sense of never thinking about their implicaton for policy - for very long. There are several reasonable ways to generate conditionals for forecasts from VAR model.

Business Cycles: Real Facts and a Monetary Myth

Abstract: This paper argues that the reporting of facts in light of theory fosters the development of theory Dynamic neoclassical macro theory guided the selection of facts to report The hope is that these facts will foster the further development of this theory A finding is that the price level is countercyclical in the post-Korean War period This finding debunks the myths that the price level is procyclical, with the postwar period being no exception

Why Do Americans Work So Much More Than Europeans

Abstract: Americans now work 50 percent more than do the Germans, French, and Italians. This was not the case in the early 1970s, when the Western Europeans worked more than Americans. This article examines the role of taxes in accounting for the differences in labor supply across time and across countries; in particular, the effective marginal tax rate on labor income. The population of countries considered is the G-7 countries, which are major advanced industrial countries. The surprising fi nding is that this marginal tax rate accounts for the predominance of differences at points in time and the large change in relative labor supply over time.

Are Phillips Curves Useful for Forecasting Inflation

Abstract: This study evaluates the conventional wisdom that modern Phillips curve-based models are useful tools for forecasting inflation. These models are based on the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (the NAIRU). The study compares the accuracy, over the last 15 years, of three sets of inflation forecasts from NAIRU models to the naive forecast that at any date inflation will be the same over the next year as it has been over the last year. The conventional wisdom is wrong; none of the NAIRU forecasts is more accurate than the naive forecast. The likelihood of accurately predicting a change in the inflation rate from these three forecasts is no better than the likelihood of accurately predicting a change based on a coin flip. The forecasts include those from a textbook NAIRU model, those from two models similar to Stock and Watson’s, and those produced by the Federal Reserve Board.