Showing papers in "World Bank Publications in 2013"

The state of the poor : where are the poor, where is extreme poverty harder to end, and what is the current profile of the world's poor?

Abstract: Although the world witnessed an unprecedented pace of poverty reduction over the last decades, reducing the number of people living in extreme poverty by more than 700 million, approximately 1.2 billion people remained entrenched in destitution in 2010.1 In order to leverage developing country efforts and galvanize the international development community to exert concerted effort to end extreme poverty, the World Bank has established the twin goals of ending extreme poverty by 2030 and promoting shared prosperity by fostering income growth of the bottom 40 percent of the population in every country. Ending extreme poverty in just one generation is a formidable challenge by all accounts that requires a thorough understanding of the state of the poor. The objective of this note is to analyze some of the diverse characteristics of 1.2 billion poor people who are the focus of the poverty reduction efforts of governments and the international development community. Despite the impressive progress in the fight against poverty in the developing world as a whole, the progress has been much slower in Low Income Countries (LICs). Poverty for middle and high income countries fell by more than a half since 1981. For LICs, however, extreme poverty fell by less than a third.

Twenty years of health system reform in Brazil : an assessment of the sistema unico de saude

Abstract: It has been more than 20 years since Brazil's 1988 Constitution formally established the Unified Health System (Sistema Unico de Saude, SUS). Building on reforms that started in the 1980s, the SUS represented a significant break with the past, establishing health care as a fundamental right and duty of the state and initiating a process of fundamentally transforming Brazil's health system to achieve this goal. This report aims to answer two main questions. First is have the SUS reforms transformed the health system as envisaged 20 years ago? Second, have the reforms led to improvements with regard to access to services, financial protection, and health outcomes? In addressing these questions, the report revisits ground covered in previous assessments, but also brings to bear additional or more recent data and places Brazil's health system in an international context. The report shows that the health system reforms can be credited with significant achievements. The report points to some promising directions for health system reforms that will allow Brazil to continue building on the achievements made to date. Although it is possible to reach some broad conclusions, there are many gaps and caveats in the story. A secondary aim of the report is to consider how some of these gaps can be filled through improved monitoring of health system performance and future research. The introduction presents a short review of the history of the SUS, describes the core principles that underpinned the reform, and offers a brief description of the evaluation framework used in the report. Chapter two presents findings on the extent to which the SUS reforms have transformed the health system, focusing on delivery, financing, and governance. Chapter three asks whether the reforms have resulted in improved outcomes with regard to access to services, financial protection, quality, health outcomes, and efficiency. The concluding chapter presents the main findings of the study, discusses some policy directions for addressing the current shortcomings, and identifies areas for further research.

Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin : Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection [Dynamiques de déforestation dans le bassin du Congo : Réconcilier la croissance économique et la protection de la forêt]

Abstract: The Congo Basin forests have been mainly “passively” protected by chronic political instability and conflict, poor infrastructure, and poor governance. Congo Basin countries thus still fit the profile of high forest cover/ low deforestation (HFLD) countries. However, there are signs that Congo Basin forests are under increasing pressure from a variety of sources, including mineral extraction, road development, agribusiness, and biofuels, in addition to subsistence agricultural expansion and charcoal collection. Congo Basin countries are now at a crossroad – they are not yet locked into a development path that will necessarily come at high cost to forests. They need to find new ways of development that can simultaneously respond to the dual challenge of developing local economies and reducing poverty while limiting the negative impact of growth on the region’s natural capital, and forests in particular. They can define a new path toward “forest-friendly” growth. The question is how to match economic change with smart measures and policy choices so that Congo Basin countries sustain and benefit from their extraordinary natural assets over the long term – in other words how to “leapfrog” the traditional dip in forest cover usually observed in the forest transition curve. The report Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling economic growth and forest protection is the output of a two-year exercise implemented by the World Bank at the request of the COMIFAC (Regional Commission in charge of Forestry in Central Africa) and the highly-forested countries in the Congo Basin (namely Cameroon, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo Gabon, Equatorial Guinea and Republic of Congo). The study is informed by economic modeling complemented with sectoral analysis, as well as interactive simulations and workshop discussions. This study on Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling economic growth and forest protection analyzes the current and future pressures exerted by different sectors of the economy on Congo Basin forests, and highlights policy options to limit deforestation while pursuing inclusive, green growth. Emerging environmental finance mechanisms, such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) under the climate change negotiations, may provide additional resources to help countries protect their forests. But there are already a number of “no-regret” actions that countries can take to grow along a sustainable development path.

Economic Mobility and the Rise of the Latin American Middle Class [La movilidad económica y el crecimiento de la clase media en América Latina]

Abstract: After decades of stagnation, the size of Latin America's middle class recently expanded to the point where, for the first time ever, the number of people in poverty is equal to the size of the middle class. This volume investigates the nature, determinants and possible consequences of this remarkable process of social transformation. We propose an original definition of the middle class, tailor-made for Latin America, centered on the concept of economic security and thus a low probability of falling into poverty. Given our definition of the middle class, there are four, not three, classes in Latin America. Sandwiched between the poor and the middle class there lies a large group of people who appear to make ends meet well enough, but do not enjoy the economic security that would be required for membership of the middle class. We call this group the 'vulnerable'. In an almost mechanical sense, these transformations in Latin America reflect both economic growth and declining inequality in over the period. We adopt a measure of mobility that decomposes the 'gainers' and 'losers' in society by social class of each household. The continent has experienced a large amount of churning over the last 15 years, at least 43% of all Latin Americans changed social classes between the mid 1990s and the end of the 2000s. Despite the upward mobility trend, intergenerational mobility, a better proxy for inequality of opportunity, remains stagnant. Educational achievement and attainment remain to be strongly dependent upon parental education levels. Despite the recent growth in pro-poor programs, the middle class has benefited disproportionally from social security transfers and are increasingly opting out from government services. Central to the region's prospects of continued progress will be its ability to harness the new middle class into a new, more inclusive social contract, where the better-off pay their fair share of taxes, and demand improved public services.

Trade in Value Added : Developing New Measures of Cross-Border Trade

Abstract: This volume includes papers that were first presented and discussed at a workshop on 'The Fragmentation of Global Production and Trade in Value- Added: Developing New Measures of Cross Border Trade', held at the World Bank in Washington, DC, on 9 to 10 June, 2011. This publication is structured as follows: chapter one gives and overview of measuring trade in value added when production is fragmented across countries. Chapter two discusses policy rationale and methodological challenges towards the measurement of trade in value-added terms. Chapter three highlights the importance of measuring trade in value added. Chapter four computes and analyses the value-added content of trade. Chapter five proposes an accounting framework for estimating the domestic and foreign content share in a country's exports when processing trade is prevalent. Chapter six provides estimates of foreign and domestic content in Mexico's manufacturing exports that take into account the import content in production under the maquiladora and Programa de Importacion Temporal para Producir Articulos de Exportacion (PITEX) programmes. Chapter seven gives empirical evidence that the standard gravity equation performs poorly by some measures when it is applied to bilateral flows where parts and components trade is important. It also provides a simple theoretical foundation for a modified gravity equation that is suited to explain trade where international supply chains are important. Chapter eight provides methodological guidelines on how to compute import coefficients at the level of the firm and shows how trade micro-data, can refine the aggregate nature of the indicators in input-output (IO) tables, by increasing their granularity. Chapter nine reviews the availability of underlying source data, summarizes the assumptions and describes the harmonization techniques used. Chapter ten gives three-stage reconciliation method to construct a time series international IO database. Chapter eleven gives direct measurement for collecting product- and firm-level statistics on value added and business function outsourcing and offshoring. Chapter twelve focuses on statistics and measures that are developed and used for defining and monitoring trade policy and economic development. Each chapter gives references at the end.

Early childhood education and development in poor villages of Indonesia : strong foundations, later success

Abstract: Influenced by the condition of young children within its own country and by the pattern of international evidence about the value of Early Childhood Education and Development (ECED), the government of Indonesia has implemented policies and programs that prioritize the early years of children's lives The first critical step was taken in 2001, when a new directorate dedicated to early childhood was established within the Ministry of Education and Culture The second critical step was taken when early childhood education was included in a succession of key policy documents-the National Education System Law No 20 in 2003 and the Ministry of Education and Culture's Strategic Plan (Rencana Strategis or Renstra) in 2004 ECED services are privately provided in multiple formats intended to cater to distinct age groups, and several different government ministries regulate the services These arrangements underscore the continuing challenges in coordinating services and ensuring high quality across service providers This book uses Indonesian data to answer five questions with significance for research, policy, and practice within and beyond Indonesia: (1) shat does global evidence tell us about the importance of ECED, and what policies and programs has Indonesia implemented to promote ECED?; (2) what is the pattern of development among young children in poor villages in Indonesia, and how is that development linked with their families' characteristics and the ECED services typically available to them?; (3) what were the processes and challenges of implementing a community-driven ECED project across 50 poor districts in Indonesia?; (4) what can be learned from the short-term results of a randomized evaluation of the project's impact on children’s development?; and (5) what insights can be derived from this body of research to inform future policies and practices in Indonesia and beyond? With support from the World Bank and other development partners, the government has provided new early childhood services in 6,000 poor communities across 50 districts in the country The lessons from this experience are focused in this book

Dealing with the challenges of macro financial linkages in emerging markets

Abstract: The 2008 financial crisis has emphasized the importance of macro financial linkages. In the financial sector, attention is now focusing on macro prudential regulations that are geared toward the stability of the financial system as a whole. In the macro arena, the recognition that price stability was not sufficient to guarantee macroeconomic stability and that financial imbalances developed despite low inflation and small output gaps has highlighted the need for additional tools (macro prudential policies) to complement monetary policy in countercyclical management. Emerging markets (EMs) face different conditions and have key structural features that can have a bearing on the relevance and efficacy of policy measures. This note discusses the challenges of dealing with macro financial linkages and explores the policy toolkit available for dealing with systemic risks, particularly in the context of EMs.

Toward Climate-Resilient Development in Nigeria

Abstract: This book analyzes the risks to Nigeria's development prospects that climate change poses to agriculture, livestock, and water management These sectors were chosen because they are central to achieving the growth, livelihood, and environmental objectives of Vision 20: 2020; and because they are already vulnerable to current climate variability Since other sectors might also be affected, the findings of this research provide lower-bound estimates of overall climate change impacts Agriculture accounts for about 40 percent of Nigeria's Gross Domestic product (GDP) and employs 70 percent of its people Because virtually all production is rain-fed, agriculture is highly vulnerable to weather swings It alerts us that increases in temperature, coupled with changes in precipitation patterns and hydrological regimes, can only exacerbate existing vulnerabilities The book proposes 10 practical short-term priority actions, as well as complementary longer-term initiatives, that could help to mitigate the threat to vision 20: 2020 that climate change poses Nigeria's vision can become a reality if the country moves promptly to become more climate-resilient Climate variability is also undermining Nigeria's efforts to achieve energy security Though dominated by thermal power, the country's energy mix is complemented by hydropower, which accounts for one-third of grid supply Because dams are poorly maintained, current variability in rainfall results in power outages that affect both Nigeria's energy security and its growth potential In particular, climate models converge in projecting that by mid-century water flows will increase for almost half the country, decrease in 10 percent of the country, and be uncertain over one-third of Nigeria's surface The overall feasibility of Nigeria's hydropower potential is not in question On grounds of energy diversification and low carbon co-benefits, exploiting the entire 12 gigawatts (GW) of hydropower potential should be considered Nigeria has a number of actions and policy choices it might consider for building up its ability to achieve climate-resilient development

Transforming Cities with Transit : Transit and Land-Use Integration for Sustainable Urban Development [Transformando las ciudades con el transporte público : integración del transporte público y el uso del suelo para un desarrollo urbano sostenible]

Abstract: This study explores the complex process of transit and land-use integration in rapidly growing cities in developing countries. It first identifies barriers to and opportunities for effective coordination of transit infrastructure and urban development. It then recommends a set of policies and implementation measures for overcoming these barriers and exploiting these opportunities. Well-integrated transit and land development create urban forms and spaces that reduce the need for travel by private motorized vehicles. Areas with good access to public transit and well-designed urban spaces that are walkable and bikeable become highly attractive places for people to live, work, learn, play, and interact. Such environments enhance a city's economic competitiveness, reduce local pollution and global greenhouse gas emissions, and promote inclusive development. These goals are at the heart of transit-oriented development (TOD), an urban form that is increasingly important to sustainable urban futures. This book uses a case study approach. It draws lessons from global best-case examples of transit-oriented metropolises that have direct relevance to cities in developing countries and elsewhere that are currently investing in bus rapid transit (BRT) and other high-capacity transit systems. It also reports the results of two original in-depth case studies of rapidly growing and motorizing cities that introduced extended BRT systems: Ahmedabad, India and Bogota, Colombia. Two shorter case studies enrich the understanding of factors that are critical to transforming cities with transit.

Scaling Up Affordable Health Insurance : Staying the Course

Abstract: Scaling Up Affordable Health Insurance: Staying the Course is the fifth volume in a series of in-depth reviews on the role of health care financing in improving access for low-income populations to needed care protecting them from the impoverishing effects of illness and addressing the important issues of social exclusion in government financed programs. Success in improving access and financial protection through community and private voluntary health insurance have led many countries to attempt to make membership compulsory and to offer subsidized insurance through the public sector. The protagonists are divided into several camps; from supporters of health insurance to opponents or skeptics. Today many low- and middle-income countries are no longer listening to this dichotomized debate between vertical and horizontal approaches to health care. Instead they are experimenting with new and innovative approaches to health care financing. Health insurance is becoming a new paradigm for reaching the Millennium Development Goals. The research for this volume shows that when properly designed and coupled with public subsidies health insurance can contribute to the well-being of poor and middle-class households not just the rich. And it can contribute to development goals such as improved access to health care better financial protection against the cost of illness and reduced social exclusion. The book is organized into three main parts. Major policy directions in financing health care are discussed in Part 1 with a particular focus on the pre-conditions for scaling up. Part 2 moves from theory to practice with overviews and country level studies on health insurance development. Finally part 3 highlights the implementation challenges.

Let Workers Move : Using Bilateral Labor Agreements to Increase Trade in Services

Abstract: Unlike the movement of capital, the movement of labor across countries remains highly restricted-despite the huge global returns to international labor mobility. According to one estimate, allowing the temporary migration of skilled and unskilled workers equivalent to 3 percent of the workforces of the world's developed countries would increase global welfare by more than US$156 billion a year. The objective of this book is to identify and discuss possible options for increasing services trade through the temporary movement of people, as a complement, not a substitute, to what can be achieved at the World Trade Organization (WTO), regional, and bilateral levels through trade agreement. Bilateral labor agreements (BLAs) could play a complementary role provided they are designed with the aim of promoting services trade through the temporary movement of people and fulfill specific requirements, including requirements that ensure temporariness. In general, such agreements have not been designed to promote trade in services; they have traditionally been tailored to facilitate or manage labor migration flows. The book is divided into two parts. Chapters one to three assess what has been achieved so far in trade agreements in terms of the temporary movement of services providers. They also discuss the pros and cons of using BLAs as possible channels for the expansion of trade in services. Chapter's four to eight use case studies to examine the viability and performance of BLAs as a complement to other efforts to liberalize the temporary movement of people. They are based on the experiences of sending and receiving countries in Europe, North America, the Caribbean, and the Pacific. BLAs can be an attractive option for middle-income countries whose migratory flows are relatively small and do not generate fears in receiving countries. Source country governments should make credible commitments to ensure the temporary nature of these flows. In conjunction with the private sector, they should establish mechanisms for selecting the sectors to promote in target markets.

Economic development and Islamic finance

Abstract: Islamic finance has been practiced in some form since the inception of Islam, its practice in modern financial markets became recognized only in the 1980s, and began to represent a meaningful share of global financial activity only around the beginning of this century. In recent years, significant interest in Islamic finance has emerged in the world's leading conventional financial centers, including London, New York, and Hong Kong, and Western investors are increasingly considering investment in Islamic financial products. The organizing principle of Islamic finance in an Islamic economy is transaction based on exchange, where real asset is exchanged for real asset. By focusing on trade and exchange in commodities and assets, Islam encourages risk sharing, which promotes social solidarity. The features of an Islamic economy will change the behavior of society. There will be greater consultation; hence there will be no impulsive-compulsive reaction in financial dealings. At the same time, the labor force in an Islamic economy will work under a rule of trust and full understanding of contracts and obligations. Workers also share in the gains achieved through the risk, based on productive efforts, which is a better incentive system than a fixed wage. Workers will be treated with respect, which reflects the importance of human dignity in Islam. This paper is organized as follows: chapter one discusses the epistemological roots of conventional and Islamic finance. Chapter two provide a perspective of conventional modern economists. Chapter three provides a brief taxonomy of the foundational Islamic market principles and evaluates them in the context of institutional and behavioral economics in the context of Knightian uncertainty. Chapter four accounts for finance and development in Islam from a historical perspective. Chapter five discusses the evolution of the concept of economic development. Chapter six provide an Islamic perspective on financial inclusion and argue that the core principles of Islam place great emphasis on social justice, inclusion, and sharing of resources between the haves and the have-nots. Chapter seven addresses financial inclusion. Chapter eight provide insight into Islam's perspective on social safety sets and social insurance. Chapter nine examines Islamic capital markets in a global context. Chapters ten examines the problems of primary and secondary aspects of the conventional stock markets and their critiques of corporate governance. Chapter eleven give a realistic view of the current state of affairs in Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) countries. Chapter twelve addresses key economic policy challenges in the context of the Islamic economic and financial system.

On Norms and Agency : Conversations about Gender Equality with Women and Men in 20 Countries

Abstract: This report provides tremendous insight on gender norms an area that has been resistant to change, and that constrains achievement of gender equality across many diverse cultures The report synthesizes data collected from more than 4,000 women and men in 97 communities across 20 countries It is the largest dataset ever collected on the topic of gender and development, providing an unprecedented opportunity to examine potential patterns across communities on social norms and gender roles, pathways of empowerment, and factors that drive acute inequalities The analysis raises the profile of persistent social norms and their impact on agency, and catalyzes discourse on the many pathways that create opportunities for women and men to negotiate transformative change The report is underpinned by the fact that arguably the single most important contribution to development is to unleash the full power of half the people on the planet women It underscores how crucial making investments in learning, supporting innovations that reduce the time costs of women s mobility, and developing a critical mass of women and men pushing the boundaries of entrenched social norms are in enhancing women s agency and capacity to aspire

Urban labor markets in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract: The population of Sub-Saharan Africa stood at 854 million in 2010. Annual population growth averaged 2.5 percent, with a relatively high sustained fertility rate, fostered by the fact that two-thirds of the population is under 25. The region has the highest proportion of poor people in the world, with 47.5 percent of its population living on less than $1.25 a day, as measured in terms of purchasing power parity in 2008. It is also the only region in which the number of poor is still rising. This book contributes to knowledge on the functioning of urban labor markets in Sub-Saharan Africa by investigating following questions: which individuals lack access to employment or are employed beneath their capacities; does education improve working conditions?; what opportunities does the labor market offer to climb the social ladder?; is the lack of good-quality jobs for adults and the poverty it implies one of the reasons for the prevalence of child labor?; do women and ethnic minorities have the same access to the labor market as everyone else?; how does the formal sector live alongside the informal sector?; what role does migration play in the functioning of labor markets?;and are there traits common to all urban labor markets in Africa, or is each country different? This book attempts to answer these questions by studying 11 cities in 10 countries (table O.1). Comparative studies are often based on disparate measurement instruments, which risk marring the validity of the findings. This study is based on a set of perfectly comparable surveys. The study also covers a number of topics (migration, child labor, job satisfaction, discrimination, and work after retirement) in addition to the topics covered by Lachaud (unemployment, access to employment and mobility, segmentation, labor supply, and poverty). This book is divided in five parts. The first is comparative analysis of urban labor markets in Sub-Saharan Africa; second is job quality and labor market conditions in Sub-Saharan Africa; third is dimensions of labor market inequalities; fourth is the key coping mechanisms and private responses; and fifth is moving forward.

Secondary Education in Ethiopia : Supporting Growth and Transformation

Abstract: This report is on the secondary education in Ethiopia The report analyzes the challenges of secondary education in the context of the government's growth and transformation plan and its stated goal of becoming a middle-income country by 2020-23 The education system in Ethiopia as currently organized, together with existing education policies, has served the country well as it has transitioned from a country with some of the lowest enrollment ratios in the world to one where universal primary education is within reach The current secondary curriculum is not designed to meet the demands of universal general secondary education; it is too difficult and academic for that purpose The report begins with an investigation of the participation rate in secondary education that would support a middle-income economy It then examines whether the current secondary curriculum can ensure a supply of secondary graduates compatible with the needs of this economy The report also analyzes how teacher preparation, development, and management, together with school-based management, can contribute to ensuring quality secondary graduates Based on the quantity and quality of secondary graduates required, the report then assesses the options for ensuring sustainable financing for the subsector It concludes with a summary of policy options for the expansion of secondary education Ethiopia's recent economic performance has been impressive Sustaining this performance over the coming 15 years will require significant improvements in productivity, which must be achieved through improved management, the application of technology, and the upgrading of human capital Ensuring that its education system both imparts students with middle-level skills and facilitates improved learning achievement is probably the most critical challenge that Ethiopia faces

Turning the Right Corner : Ensuring Development through a Low-Carbon Transport Sector [Avances en la dirección correcta : promoción de un sector de transporte con bajas emisiones de carbono para asegurar el desarrollo - Resumen ejecutivo]

Abstract: This report 'Turning the right corner - ensuring development through a low carbon transport sector' emphasizes that developing countries need to transition to a low carbon transport sector now to avoid locking themselves into an unsustainable and costly future. Furthermore, it argues that this transition can be affordable if countries combine policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions with broader sector reforms aimed at reducing local air pollution, road safety risks, and congestion. This report looks at relationships between mobility, low carbon transport and development, drawing attention to the inertia in transport infrastructure. It complements the analysis by reviewing how climate change is likely to affect operations and infrastructure, cost-effective measures for minimizing negative effects, and policies and decision frameworks. It further highlights current and projected research findings and examples from developing countries. And it concludes that new technology is not enough, and that urgent action is needed before economies become locked into high-carbon growth. It discusses how to reconcile development with the need to curb emissions, looking at three sets of instruments and their limitations: new technologies and alternative fuels, supply-side measures, and demand-side policies. This report also looks at both available funding, such as carbon financing and international assistance, and at ways to generate new resources, considering that accounting for negative externalities dramatically alters the economics of transport investment.

Building Effective Employment Programs for Unemployed Youth in the Middle East and North Africa

Abstract: This study surveys active labor market programs (ALMPs) in selected countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, identifies key challenges to their effective and efficient delivery, and proposes a policy framework for reforming public service provision. This study draws on data collected through surveys administered to public social, employment, and education agencies in selected MENA countries to identify key constraints and options for reforming publicly provided employment programs. Recent political transitions arising from the Arab Spring have contributed to the deterioration of labor market outcomes in the MENA region. In this context, ALMPs could become an important policy lever to address some of the challenges facing labor markets. These include: joblessness, skills mismatches, lack of labor market mobility, large and expanding informal sector, and lack of formal employment networks. The study also provides specific details on the beneficiaries, targeting, and expenditures of ALMPs during this same period.

Trade costs and development : a new data set

Abstract: The World Bank and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) jointly prepared a new global data set of bilateral trade costs based on trade and production data. Accessible on the World Bank Open Data Web site, it opens new analytical possibilities for policy makers and researchers working on trade integration. The data stress the importance of supply chains and connectivity constraints in explaining the higher costs and lower levels of trade integration observed in developing countries. To measure trade costs in the developing world over the 1995-2010 period, UNESCAP and the World Bank embarked on a joint data collection exercise. In addition to data on export and import flows, calculation of trade costs using the inverse gravity methodology also requires information on domestic production in each country. Usage can then be calculated as domestic production less total exports. The result of the data collection exercise is a database covering up to 178 countries, two sectors, and the 1995-2010 period. Based on the available data, trade costs data are calculated for as many bilateral pairs as possible, and interpolation used to fill in missing country- year combinations when feasible.

What promises does the Eurasian customs union hold for the future

Abstract: Established in 2010, the Eurasian Customs Union (ECU) carries significant economic weight as three of its member countries represent a potentially large consumer market. Drawing on existing literature that has studied the likely impacts of the ECU in Central Asia, this note discusses the ECU's pitfalls and potential benefits. After briefly describing the main features of the ECU, this note assesses whether the changes introduced after its establishment have benefitted all of its members equally, and concludes with a discussion of what will need to change to achieve the ECU's full potential. Available evidence suggests that the Russian Federation has been the main beneficiary in the short term, but that there are several benefits to be gained by other members in the medium to long term. Full realization of these benefits, however, will require political commitment and steadfast action to reduce nontariff barriers (NTBs), improve trade facilitation, and reduce the costs of trading across borders in the region.

Strong, Safe, and Resilient : A Strategic Policy Guide for Disaster Risk Management in East Asia and the Pacific

Abstract: Experiencing both recurrent small-scale events as well as devastating large-scale catastrophes, no other region in the world is affected by disasters as is East Asia and the Pacific In the last decade, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta, Manila, and many other cities have been repeatedly hit by floods In the last five years, Asia has experienced a large share of wide-scale natural catastrophes, including earthquakes in the Tohoku region in 2011, Padang in 2009, and Wenchuan in 2008; typhoons in 2009 in the Lao People's Democratic Republic, the Philippines, and Vietnam; a cyclone in Myanmar in 2008; and large-scale floods in 2011 in Cambodia, Thailand, and the Philippines The year 2011 was the costliest year on record for natural disasters with cascading effects (Japan) and trans-boundary consequences (Thailand), adding up to US$380 billion in economic losses, almost doubling the 2005 record of US$262 billion In the first nine months in 2011, East Asia sustained about 80 percent of all disaster losses worldwide The executive summary provides a brief overview of the key issues, strategic goals, and recommendations for DRM in East Asia and the Pacific Chapter one gives an overview of the key trends related to disaster impacts in the region Chapter two focuses on cross-sectoral issues of institutional arrangements for DRM and outreach to communities Chapter's three to seven follow the core areas of DRM: risk identification, risk reduction, emergency preparedness, financial protection, and sustainable recovery and reconstruction The appendixes include additional information related to specific sections of the report, a glossary of key terminology, and a summary of the main activities of the World Bank East Asia and the Pacific disaster risk management team

Gender Equality and Economic Growth in Brazil

Abstract: This note studies the long-run impacts of policies aimed at fostering gender equality on economic growth in Brazil. After a brief review of gender issues in Brazil, this note describes a framework for quantifying the growth effects of gender-based policies in developing economies. The analysis is based on a computable overlapping generations (OLG) model that accounts for the impact of access to infrastructure on women's time allocation, as well as human capital accumulation, inter- and intra-generational health externalities, and bargaining between spouses. The model is calibrated for Brazil and is used to conduct two experiments, the first involving improved access to infrastructure, and the second a reduction in gender bias in the marketplace. The key lesson of these experiments, is that fostering gender equality, which may depend significantly on the externalities that infrastructure creates in terms of women's time allocation and bargaining power, can have a substantial impact on long-run growth in Brazil.

Economics of Climate Change in the Arab World : Case Studies from the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen

Abstract: This Economics of Climate Change in the Arab World is presents detailed case studies on the impacts of climate change in the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen that were summarized. The Arab region is already being impacted by climate change through more frequent cyclones, floods, and prolonged droughts. Thousands of rural producers have seen their crops and herds devastated by extreme conditions, and have been forced to abandon their traditional way of life and migrate to crowded urban areas. Those who stay behind in rural areas struggle to cope with shortages of food and water. Climate change affects countries' economies and households through a variety of channels. Rising temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns affect agricultural yields of both rainfed and irrigated crops, and thus global and local food markets. Adaptation is a process that will take place over decades as new information makes policy makers reevaluate their climate vulnerabilities. Still, by seizing the opportunity to act now and act together, the Arab region can not only meet the immense challenges of climate change but advance the development of its entire people.

Investment financing in the wake of the crisis : the role of multilateral development banks

Abstract: Sustained growth in emerging markets and developing economies requires long-term, reliable capital to finance productive investment, including in basic infrastructure. However, the availability and composition of long-term financing is constrained, partly due to fragile market conditions and cyclical weaknesses in parts of the global economy, as well as longer-term trends. This has had a particularly negative impact on developing economies that do not have reliable access to international bond markets and on sectors that have traditionally relied on bank lending (such as infrastructure). At the same time, fiscal space has been eroded by the crisis, and the direct lending capacity of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) remains constrained. This heightens the importance of the catalytic role of the official sector in mobilizing long-term financing from the private sector by drawing on its ability to reduce and share risk. This note explores some of the ways in which MDBs are equipped to serve this purpose.

Rethinking cities : toward shared prosperity

Abstract: The great transition from farm to city is filled with economic, social, and political promise. Cities are the product of a triad of forces. This economic premise explores how the three forces of spatial transformation- physical infrastructure, human interactions, and public policy- come together and shape cities. But too many cities in Sub-Saharan Africa continue to suffer from the oldest urban scourge- unclean water. Crime and murder turn many Latin American neighborhoods into places of terror rather than opportunity. Limited transport options can turn daily commutes in Asia's mega cities into arduous treks. Shantytowns are a regular sight in many of the world's burgeoning cities. So policy makers and city mayors need to tackle a wide range of problems, from debilitating conditions in urban slums to the lack of basic services such as clean water and sanitation, inadequate housing, the exclusion of the poor from the city's socioeconomic fabric, and the management of natural hazards and pollution. If these challenges are left unaddressed, cities can become a source of social and political instability. With the right policies, cities can become engines of transformative change toward inclusive, people-centered, and sustainable development. Urbanization now has the potential of transforming the developing world, and that's why getting urban policies right is important. There is no future in rural poverty- the path to prosperity inevitably runs through cities. The right approach is not to accept the urban failures that often exist now, but to rethink cities and try to imagine how to get to a brighter urban future.

Collecting High-Frequency Data Using Mobile Phones: Do Timely Data Lead to Accountability?

Abstract: As mobile phone ownership rates have risen dramatically in Africa, there has been increased interest in using mobile telephones as a data collection platform. This note draws on two largely successful pilot projects in Tanzania and South Sudan that used mobile phones for high-frequency data collection. Data were collected on a wide range of topics and in a manner that was cost-effective, flexible, and rapid. Once households were included in the survey, they tended to stick with it: respondent fatigue has not been a major issue. While attrition and nonresponse have been challenges in the Tanzania survey, these were due to design flaws in that particular survey, challenges that can be avoided in future similar projects. Ensuring use of the data to demand better service delivery and policy decisions turned out to be as challenging as collecting the high-quality data. Experiences in Tanzania suggest that good data can be translated into public accountability, but also demonstrate that just putting data out in the public domain is not enough. This note discusses lessons learned and offers suggestions for future applications of mobile phone surveys in developing countries, such as those planned for the World Bank’s “Listening to Africa” initiative.

The World Bank Legal Review, Volume 5 : Fostering Development through Opportunity, Inclusion, and Equity

Abstract: This is the fifth edition of The World Bank Legal Review, which highlights the breadth of reach of the rule of law and, most critically, its centrality to development. This volume is made up of 32 chapters organized into five thematic parts. Part one is law and the economy; part two is justice and rule of law reform; part three is environmental and natural resources law; part four is governance and anticorruption; and part five is empowerment and equity for diverse communities. The volume ends with a concluding chapter and an afterword. Each of these five parts contains interesting and insightful discussions on the role of law and justice in development, offering innovative and dynamic recommendations on how a synergy among law, justice, and development can inspire and facilitate more viable and sustainable solutions to development challenges. This volume speaks to the holistic nature of the development process, a process that should not only encourage all stakeholders to participate in the process but also directly engage them. A process that takes place without giving stakeholders an opportunity to participate, or that excludes stakeholders, is not only an unfair and inequitable process, but also one that is likely to fall foul of the notion of justice in a society that is governed by the rule of law. Equitable participation necessitates a careful inquiry into the conceptual underpinnings of opportunity, inclusion, and equity in global development.

Making trade policy more transparent : a new database of non-tariff measures

Abstract: As tariff levels have reached all-time lows in recent decades, non-tariff measures (NTMs) have taken a central role in the international trade agenda. In a nutshell, NTMs are all types of trade regulations, other than tariffs, that directly or indirectly affect international trade. The World Trade Organization (WTO) recognizes the right of countries to introduce trade regulations to achieve legitimate objectives not related to trade, such as consumer health protection and food safety. However, NTMs can be hijacked and used as protectionist tools that can potentially drive up trade costs, divert managerial attention, and penalize small exporters- regardless of an NTM's original intent. In the face of fragmented, inconsistent, and largely unavailable data on NTMs, the World Bank is at the forefront of an inter-institutional effort to codify, harmonize, and disseminate information on NTMs and their economic impacts. The goal is to increase policy makers awareness of NTMs and help them better understand not only the impacts of main trading partners' NTMs, but also of NTM policies on competitiveness, prices, and welfare.

Reducing the Vulnerability of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change : Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options

Abstract: Agricultural production is inextricably tied to climate, making agriculture one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. In countries such as the Former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) of Macedonia, the risks of climate change for the agricultural sector are a particularly immediate and important problem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods. Climate impacts can therefore undermine progress that has been made in poverty reduction and adversely impact food security and economic growth in vulnerable rural areas. In order to be effective, a plan for adapting the sector to climate change must strengthen both human capital and physical capital in their capacity. The need to adapt to climate change in all sectors is now on the agenda of national governments and development partners. As a result, development partners will continue to have an important role in enhancing the adaptive capacity of the Macedonian agricultural sector. Another key factor for FYR Macedonia's development of an adaptation plan for agriculture is furthering FYR Macedonia's work toward European Union (EU) accession, for which FYR Macedonia has been a candidate since 2005. The Macedonian government has already begun to focus on required EU reforms, including work on the agriculture strengthening and accession project with the World Bank. Along with these needed reforms, the EU encourages action toward climate change preparedness and adaptation. This report provides a menu of climate change adaptation options for the agriculture and water resources sectors, along with specific recommendations for adaptation actions that are tailored to distinct agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within FYR Macedonia. This report is structured as follows: chapter one gives current conditions for Macedonian agriculture and climate; chapter two presents design and methodology; chapter three deals with impacts of climate change on agriculture in FYR Macedonia; chapter four deals with identification of adaptation options for managing risk to FYR Macedonia's agricultural systems; chapter five presents cost-benefit analysis; and chapter six gives options to improve climate resilience of FYR Macedonia's agricultural sector.

Are Pakistan's Women Entrepreneurs Being Served by the Microfinance Sector?

Abstract: Fostering the entrepreneurship of women is important for Pakistan's economic growth and inclusion agenda, and access to financial services is an important component of starting and growing a business for women entrepreneurs. Most women?owned businesses are small, household?based cottage industries; microfinance products should be a natural source of start?up and working capital finance for this clientele. Microfinance portfolio data suggest that although Pakistan's sector has shown improvement in reaching women, it still lags its regional peers, only 59 percent of microfinance clients are women. The original purpose of this work was to determine whether women entrepreneurs have access to, and are using, microfinance loans as a source of finance for their businesses. However, the findings of the report go beyond the narrow objective of understanding whether microfinance institutions (MFIs) are reaching Pakistan's businesswomen. As the research unfolded, the evidence suggested that not only are women entrepreneurs not being served, but also that the outreach to women in general is potentially more limited than previously assumed and that the issues of consumer protection and responsible lending practices in Pakistan might merit further exploration. The report raises and addresses two distinct issues. First, some evidence suggests that women are often not the final users of loans, but rather are conduits to male household members. The report documents findings that suggest that the practice of passing on loans to male household members is potentially quite widespread; women may be bearing all the transaction costs and risks of accessing loans, but are not the final beneficiaries. Second, a very low proportion of female microfinance clients are entrepreneurs. The report explores why businesswomen in Pakistan may not be using microfinance products to meet their startup and working capital requirements, in spite of identifying access to finance as a key constraint to their business operations. The report focuses on products, services, policies, and other elements of the business model of microfinance in Pakistan that affect both demand for and access to microfinance by women borrowers, some of whom fall into the narrower category of entrepreneurs.

Fostering entrepreneurship in Georgia

Abstract: Job creation and productivity growth are at the forefront of today's global development agenda. The 2013 world development report on jobs identified entrepreneurship as an important tool in addressing these dual goals. This study uses the entrepreneurship model put forth in the organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)-Eurostat Entrepreneurship Indicator Program (2009), with minor modifications. The model comprises various determinants that policy can affect and that in turn influence entrepreneurial performance, or the amount and type of entrepreneurship that take place. The model then refers to the impact of entrepreneurship on higher-level goals such as economic growth, job creation, and poverty reduction. This study focuses on determining the level of entrepreneurship in Georgia and analyzes the role of each determinant in both fostering and constraining entrepreneurial activity. Entrepreneurs view opportunities in the economy by measuring their profit-making potential; that is their first motivation. Entrepreneurs will not pursue a societal need unless they can successfully make a profit. Entrepreneurship also depends on various social and individual characteristics of gender and culture. It involves taking risks, and potential entrepreneurs cannot be risk-averse. A fundamental question stemming from analyzing these determinants of entrepreneurship is how to design effective public policy that promotes innovative firm creation and enables existing firms to catch up, improve productivity, and grow. Experiences from Asian countries and developed economies have shown that innovative Small Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and knowledge-based firm creation have played a major role in the development of new national economic advantages. In this context public policy is pivotal in creating an enabling environment that helps alleviate the market failures that inhibit firm growth. Emerging markets have other environmental conditions that are not present (or are less prevalent) in developed markets, and investors considering investing in emerging markets will face added risk as a result.