A descriptive model of the cigarette epidemic in developed countries
TLDR
From the model it is clear that, during certain periods of evolution of this epidemic, it is to be expected that smoking-attributable mortality will rise at the same time that smoking prevalence might be decreasing.Abstract:
It has been estimated that cigarettes are the cause of the deaths of one in two of their persistent users, and that approxi mately half a billion people currently alive-8% of the world's population could eventually be killed by tobacco if current smoking patterns persist. De spite this pandemic, tobacco consump tion continues and is increasing in many countries, especially in Asia and in Southern and Eastern Europe. A major factor affecting public awareness of the substantial health hazards of tobacco use is the three- to four-decade lag between the peak in smoking prevalence and the subsequent peak in smoking-related mortality. Based on nearly 100 years of observations in countries with the longest history of widespread cigarette use, a four-stage model of cigarette consump tion and subsequent mortality among men and women is proposed. From the model it is clear that, during certain periods of evolution of this epidemic, it is to be expected that smoking-attributable mortality will rise at the same time that smoking prevalence might be decreasing. This is because current mortality is most closely related to previous, not current, levels of cigarette consumption. Broad geographic classifications of regions are given, according to the stage of the epidemic that they are currently ex periencing. Tobacco control policy im plications for countries at each of the four stages of the cigarette epidemic are also discussed.read more
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Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
Marissa B Reitsma,Nancy Fullman,Marie Ng,Joseph Salama,Amanuel Alemu Abajobir,Kalkidan Hassen Abate,Cristiana Abbafati,Semaw Ferede Abera,Biju Abraham,Gebre Yitayih Abyu,Akindele Olupelumi Adebiyi,Ziyad Al-Aly,Alicia Aleman,Raghib Ali,Ala'a Alkerwi,Peter Allebeck,Rajaa Al-Raddadi,Azmeraw T. Amare,Alemayehu Amberbir,Walid Ammar,Stephen M. Amrock,Carl Abelardo T. Antonio,Hamid Asayesh,Niguse Tadela Atnafu,Peter Azzopardi,Amitava Banerjee,Aleksandra Barac,Tonatiuh Barrientos-Gutiérrez,Ana Basto-Abreu,Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi,Neeraj Bedi,Brent Bell,Aminu K. Bello,Isabela M. Benseñor,Addisu Shunu Beyene,Neeraj Bhala,Stan Biryukov,Kaylin Bolt,Hermann Brenner,Zahid A Butt,Fiorella Cavalleri,Kelly Cercy,Honglei Chen,Devasahayam J. Christopher,Liliana G Ciobanu,Valentina Colistro,Mercedes Colomar,Leslie Cornaby,Xiaochen Dai,Solomon Abrha Damtew,Lalit Dandona,Rakhi Dandona,Emily Dansereau,Kairat Davletov,Anand Dayama,Tizta Tilahun Degfie,Amare Deribew,Samath D Dharmaratne,Balem Demtsu Dimtsu,Kerrie E. Doyle,Aman Yesuf Endries,Sergey Petrovich Ermakov,Kara Estep,Emerito Jose A. Faraon,Farshad Farzadfar,Valery L. Feigin,Andrea B. Feigl,Florian Fischer,Joseph Friedman,Tsegaye Tewelde G,hiwot,Seana L. Gall,Wayne Gao,Richard F. Gillum,Audra L Gold,Sameer Vali Gopalani,Carolyn C. Gotay,Rashmi Gupta,Rajeev Gupta,Vipin Gupta,Randah R. Hamadeh,Graeme J. Hankey,Hilda L Harb,Simon I. Hay,Masako Horino,Nobuyuki Horita,H. Dean Hosgood,Abdullatif Husseini,Bogdan Vasile Ileanu,Farhad Islami,Guohong Jiang,Ying Jiang,Jost B. Jonas,Zubair Kabir,Ritul Kamal,Amir Kasaeian,Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran,Yousef Khader,Ibrahim A Khalil,Young-Ho Khang,Sahil Khera,Jagdish Khubchandani,Daniel Kim,Yun Jin Kim,Ruth W Kimokoti,Yohannes Kinfu,Luke D. Knibbs,Yoshihiro Kokubo,Dhaval Kolte,Jacek A. Kopec,Soewarta Kosen,Georgios A. Kotsakis,Parvaiz A Koul,Ai Koyanagi,Kristopher J Krohn,Hans Krueger,Barthelemy Kuate Defo,Burcu Kucuk Bicer,Chanda Kulkarni,G Anil Kumar,Janet L Leasher,Alexander Lee,Mall Leinsalu,Tong Li,Shai Linn,Patrick Liu,Shiwei Liu,Loon-Tzian Lo,Alan D. Lopez,Stefan Ma,Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek,Azeem Majeed,Reza Malekzadeh,Deborah Carvalho Malta,Wondimu Ayele Manamo,Jose Martinez-Raga,Alemayehu B. Mekonnen,Walter Mendoza,Ted R. Miller,Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad,Lidia Morawska,Kamarul Imran Musa,Gabriele Nagel,Sudan Prasad Neupane,Quyen Nguyen,Grant Nguyen,In-Hwan Oh,Abayomi Samuel Oyekale,Padukudru Anand Mahesh,Adrian Pana,Eun-Kee Park,Snehal Patil,George C Patton,João Mário Pedro,Mostafa Qorbani,Anwar Rafay,Mahfuzar Rahman,Rajesh Kumar Rai,Usha Ram,Chhabi Lal Ranabhat,Amany H. Refaat,Nickolas Reinig,Hirbo Shore Roba,Alina Rodriguez,Yesenia Roman,Gregory A. Roth,Ambuj Roy,Rajesh Sagar,Joshua A. Salomon,Juan Sanabria,Itamar S. Santos,Benn Sartorius,Maheswar Satpathy,Monika Sawhney,Susan M Sawyer,Mete Saylan,Michael Schaub,Neil W. Schluger,Aletta E. Schutte,Sadaf G. Sepanlou,Berrin Serdar,Masood Ali Shaikh,Jun She,Min-Jeong Shin,Rahman Shiri,Kawkab Shishani,Ivy Shiue,Inga Dora Sigfusdottir,Jonathan I. Silverberg,Jasvinder A. Singh,Virendra Singh,Erica Leigh Slepak,Samir Soneji,Joan B. Soriano,Sergey Soshnikov,Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy,Dan J. Stein,Saverio Stranges,Michelle L Subart,Soumya Swaminathan,Cassandra Szoeke,Worku Tefera,Roman Topor-Madry,Bach Xuan Tran,Nikolaos Tsilimparis,Hayley D. Tymeson,Kingsley N. Ukwaja,Rachel L Updike,Olalekan A. Uthman,Francesco Saverio Violante,Sergey K Vladimirov,Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov,Stein Emil Vollset,Theo Vos,Elisabete Weiderpass,Chi-Pan Wen,Andrea Werdecker,Shelley Wilson,Mamo Wubshet,Lin Xiao,Bereket Yakob,Yuichiro Yano,Penpeng Ye,Naohiro Yonemoto,Seok Jun Yoon,Mustafa Z. Younis,Chuanhua Yu,Zoubida Zaidi,Maysaa El Sayed Zaki,Anthony Lin Zhang,Ben Zipkin,Christopher J L Murray,Mohammad H. Forouzanfar,Emmanuela Gakidou +233 more
TL;DR: The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low- SDI to middle-SDI countries.
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Journal ArticleDOI
Mortality from tobacco in developed countries: Indirect estimation from national vital statistics
TL;DR: Application of such methods indicates that on current smoking patterns just over 20% of those now living in developed countries will eventually be killed by tobacco (ie, about a quarter of a billion, out of a current total population of just under one and a quarter billion).
Journal ArticleDOI
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