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Boosting Competitiveness to Grow Out of Debt; Can Ireland Find a Way Back to Its Future?
TLDR
In this paper, the authors used vector autoregressive analysis to explore the interlinkages among competitiveness, exports, economic growth, and fiscal performance in Ireland and found that external demand is an important driver of exports and also the single most important determinant of Ireland's GDP and government revenue.Abstract:
This paper investigates the prospects for Ireland to grow its economy against the backdrop of high indebtedness. The paper uses vector autoregressive analysis to explore the interlinkages among competitiveness, exports, economic growth, and fiscal performance. The emerging conclusion is that Ireland, which has regained cost competitiveness following the crisis-driven fall in domestic prices, is poised to return to its path of strong exports and economic growth and lower imbalances provided that it maintains competitiveness, though a pickup in external demand is critical. Three main findings underpin this conclusion. First, external demand is an important driver of exports and also the single most important determinant of Ireland’s GDP and government revenue. Second, declines in price competitiveness, featured by real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciations, restrain exports and economic growth. Third, exports boost output, which in turn enhances fiscal performance.read more
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The National Bureau of Economic Research
TL;DR: The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBRE) as mentioned in this paper is a private non-profit corporation, formed to conduct or assist in the making of exact and impartial investigations in the field of economic, social and industrial science, and to this end to cooperate with governments, universities, learned societies, and individuals.
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Growth in a Time of Debt
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors exploit a new multi-country historical dataset on public (government) debt to search for a systemic relationship between high public debt level growth and inflation, and their main result is that whereas the link between growth and debt seems relatively weak at “normal” debt levels, median growth rates for countries with over roughly ninety percent of gdp are about one percent lower than otherwise; average growth rates are several percent lower.
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Catching up with the leaders: the Irish hare
Patrick Honohan,Brendan M. Walsh +1 more
TL;DR: For many decades Ireland's output per capita ranked about twenty-fourth among the world's industrial nations as mentioned in this paper, and then Ireland started to move up, from twenty-second in 1993 to eighteenth in 1997 and an amazing ninth in 1999.
References
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Posted Content
Growth in a Time of Debt
TL;DR: This paper study the relationship between government debt and real GDP growth and find that the relationship is weak for debt/GDP ratios below a threshold of 90 percent of GDP, while for higher levels, growth rates are roughly cut in half.
Journal Article
The real effects of debt
Stephen G. Cecchetti,Stephen G. Cecchetti,Stephen G. Cecchetti,Madhusudan Mohanty,Fabrizio Zampolli +4 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used a new dataset that includes the level of government, non-financial corporate and household debt in 18 OECD countries from 1980 to 2010, and found that, beyond a certain level, debt is a drag on growth.
Journal ArticleDOI
The National Bureau of Economic Research
TL;DR: The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBRE) as mentioned in this paper is a private non-profit corporation, formed to conduct or assist in the making of exact and impartial investigations in the field of economic, social and industrial science, and to this end to cooperate with governments, universities, learned societies, and individuals.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Bank for International Settlements
TL;DR: The Bank of International Monetary Cooperation (BIC) as discussed by the authors has two functions, primary and auxiliary, and the impossibility of predicting what may be expected from the latter, 724.
Journal ArticleDOI
Public Debt and Growth
Jaejoon Woo,Manmohan S. Kumar +1 more
TL;DR: The authors explored the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth and found that a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year.