China's Economic Growth 1978-2025: What We Know Today about China's Economic Growth Tomorrow
TLDR
In this article, the authors examined the economic growth prospects of China over the next two decades by extrapolating past real GDP growth rates into the future and showed that the size of the Chinese economy surpasses that of the U.S. in purchasing power terms around 2010.Abstract:
Views of the future China vary widely. While some believe that the collapse of China is inevitable, others see the emergence of a new economic superpower that increasingly poses a threat to the U.S. This paper examines the economic growth prospects of China over the next two decades. Extrapolating past real GDP growth rates into the future, the size of the Chinese economy surpasses that of the U.S. in purchasing power terms around 2010. Such extrapolations can be supported by standard growth patterns identified in economic development and trade theories (structural change, catching up, and factor price equalization). They can also be supported by an explanation of China's past GDP growth through growth of various labor variables, with a subsequent derivation of future GDP growth based on reliable information about future labor quantity and quality. China's demographic changes and economic growth have a number of implications for China and the world.read more
Citations
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Can China´s Growth be Sustained? A Productivity Perspective
TL;DR: Wang et al. as discussed by the authors investigated the impact of market and ownership reforms on total factor productivity (TFP) in the Chinese economy during the reform period and found that reform measures often resulted in one-time level effects on TFP, and China now needs to adjust its reform program toward sustained increases in productivity.
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Industrial and aggregate measures of productivity growth in china, 1982–2000
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimate productivity growth for 33 industries covering the entire Chinese economy using a time series of input-output tables covering 1982-2000 and find a wide range of productivity performance at the industry level.
Posted Content
Growth Prospects in China and India Compared
Richard Herd,Sean Dougherty +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors compare the growth prospects of China and India through a growth accounting analysis, using a series of time series for capital stock and employment data, and incorporating recent revisions to the national accounts for both countries are incorporated.
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Macroeconomic transmission of Eurozone shocks to emerging economies
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyse the robustness of the croissance of economies emergentes to a divers chocs on leur demande exterieure, using un modele vectoriel autoregressif bayesien incorporant des informations prealables.
Journal ArticleDOI
Hoarding of International Reserves in China: Mercantilism, Domestic Consumption and US Monetary Policy
TL;DR: This article developed a two-country two-period model able to reproduce the key qualitative aspects of the US-China codependency (and imbalances) as the result of the Chinese and American authorities pursuing different but complementary objectives.
References
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Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind
TL;DR: The catch-up hypothesis holds that, in comparisons among countries, productivity growth rates tend to vary inversely with productivity levels as discussed by the authors, and the convergence of productivity levels implies the relative success of early leaders and latecomers.
Journal ArticleDOI
Where Ricardo and Mill Rebut and Confirm Arguments of Mainstream Economists Supporting Globalization
TL;DR: In the long run, the gains of the winners from free trade, properly measured, work out to exceed the losses of the losers as mentioned in this paper. But this is not by mysterious fuzzy magic, but rather comes from a sharing of the trade-induced rise in total global vectors of the goods and services that people in a democracy want.
BookDOI
In Search of Prosperity: Analytic Narratives on Economic Growth
TL;DR: The economics of growth has come a long way since it regained center stage for economists in the mid-1980s as mentioned in this paper, and there is a series of country studies guided by that research.
Book
China's unfinished economic revolution
TL;DR: The authors argues that China must recapitalize and restructure its domestic banking system and end the long-standing practice of making lending decisions based on political rather than economic criteria to avoid a major domestic banking crisis.
Book
Who Will Feed China?: Wake-Up Call for a Small Planet
TL;DR: The authors showed that even as water becomes more scarce in a land where 80 percent of the grain crop is irrigated, as per-acre yield gains are erased by the loss of cropland to industrialization, China still increases its population by the equivalent of a new Beijing each year.