From Sarajevo to September 11: The Future of Globalization

TLDR: A Future Perfect: The Challenge and Hidden Promise of Globalization (Random House, 2000) as mentioned in this paper was the first book to address the backlash against the current age of globalization and pointed out that, for all its other merits, globalization had made the West much more vulnerable to attack.

Abstract: ON THE MORNING of June 28, 1914, the world could rejoice in 60 years of extraordinary peace and progress. The first great age of globalization had made the world seem an infinitely smaller place. So great were the twin powers of technology (in the shape of the telephone, the telegram, the train, the car, electricity, the camera) and ideology (the gospel of free trade, guaranteed by the world's hegemonic power, Britain) that Edwardian intellectuals prophesied the end of all wars. Yet on that summer's day, one act of terrorism in Sarajevo--the assassination of the Archduke Ferdinand and his wife by a Serbian fanatic called Gavrilo Princip--set off a sickening train of events. The world plunged into the most horrific war in history, and even after the killing had stopped, countries everywhere renounced their previous openness, fortifying their borders to limit the movement of goods, people, and even ideas. It would be absurd to blame all the miseries of the first half of the twentieth century on a single act of terrorism: The causes of world war and protectionist folly had been germinating for years. But those causes became clear only in retrospect. John Maynard Keynes nicely describes the typical middleclass Londoner in 1914, "sipping his morning tea in bed" while ordering goods from around the world and planning his global investments. For such a man, "the projects and politics of militarism and imperialism, of racial and cultural rivalries, of monopolies, restriction and exclusions, which were to play the serpent to this paradise, were little more than the amusements in his daily newspaper." For such a man, and millions of others, Gavrilo Princip's two shots marked a turning point. In the first edition of our book, A Future Perfect: The Challenge and Hidden Promise of Globalization (Random House, 2000), one of the figures we chose to illustrate the backlash against the current age of globalization was another terrorist: Osama bin Laden. Drawing on research by journalist Peter L. Bergen, who had interviewed bin Laden in Afghanistan, we quoted his fury against the "New World Order" that "haughty" America was imposing on the world. We noted that bin Laden, like so many other opponents of globalization, had been remarkably sophisticated about exploiting the process he professed to hate, using the latest technology to promote his medieval message. And we argued that, for all its other merits, lowering borders had made the West much more vulnerable to attack. We raised the possibility of al-Qaeda using a primitive nuclear bomb to blow up the World Trade Center. At the time, this seemed a little far-fetched. We debated shortening the section on bin Laden, lest people might think that we were paying too much attention to the ramblings of a marginal crank. People were far more interested in the promise of open markets and technological innovation than they were in terrorism. It was a heady time for supporters of globalization, particularly in the United States. The stock market continued to defy gravity. The standard indicators of globalization pointed skyward: The volume of global trade increased steadily in the decade through 2000, and foreign direct investment flows topped $1.3 trillion. Economists speculated about the birth of a new economy" that had banished recessions for good. Gurus speculated about "Dow 36,000"--or whatever other number they plucked out of their hats. This was a time when Silicon Valley and Wall Street minted new millionaires every single day, when business-school graduates confidently expected to retire at 40 and begin a new career in philanthropy, and when the first signs of liberalization seemed to be awakening parts of the Third World. India and China were booming after decades of state-imposed stagnation. Of course, there were serpents in this paradise, no less than there were in the world of Keynes's Londoner. Too many people in the developing world lived in grinding poverty. …