Journal ArticleDOI
Inferring Contagion Patterns in Social Contact Networks Using a Maximum Likelihood Approach
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TLDR
The objective of the model is to infer the most likely path of infection through a contact network for an ongoing outbreak, formulated as a linear integer program.Abstract:
The spread of infectious disease is an inherently stochastic process. As such, real-time control and prediction methods present a significant challenge. For diseases that spread through direct human interaction, the contagion process can be modeled on a social contact network where individuals are represented as nodes, and contact between individuals is represented as links. The objective of the model described in this paper is to infer the most likely path of infection through a contact network for an ongoing outbreak. The problem is formulated as a linear integer program. Specific properties of the problem are exploited to develop a much more efficient solution method than solving the linear program directly. The model output can provide insight into future epidemic outbreak patterns and aid in the development of intervention strategies. The model is evaluated for a combination of network structures and sizes, as well as various disease properties and potential human error in assessing these pro...read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
Inferring the risk factors behind the geographical spread and transmission of Zika in the Americas.
Lauren Gardner,András Bóta,Karthik Gangavarapu,Moritz U. G. Kraemer,Moritz U. G. Kraemer,Moritz U. G. Kraemer,Nathan D. Grubaugh +6 more
TL;DR: The model generates country level exportation and importation risk profiles over the course of the epidemic and provides quantitative estimates for the likelihood of introduced Zika virus resulting in local transmission, between all origin-destination travel pairs in the Americas.
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Identifying Critical Components of a Public Transit System for Outbreak Control
TL;DR: A novel network structure is proposed, denoted as the vehicle trip network, to capture the dynamic public transit ridership patterns in a compact form, and how it can be used for efficient detection of the high risk network components is illustrated.
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Finding Outbreak Trees in Networks with Limited Information
TL;DR: This paper addresses the problem of identifying contagion patterns responsible for the spread of a disease in a network, which can be applied in real-time to evaluate an ongoing outbreak and proposes a novel formulation and solution method based on a two-step heuristic.
Journal ArticleDOI
Bilevel Optimization Model for the Development of Real-Time Strategies to Minimize Epidemic Spreading Risk in Air Traffic Networks
TL;DR: A bilevel optimization model is proposed to solve the resource allocation problem for an ongoing epidemic spreading via the air traffic network and demonstrates the ability of the model to develop real-time strategies that account for the heterogeneous nature of the air travel pattern and the complex dynamics of epidemic spread.
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