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Open AccessJournal ArticleDOI

On Alternative Interest Rate Processes

Magnus Dahlquist
- 01 Jul 1996 - 
- Vol. 20, Iss: 6, pp 1093-1119
TLDR
In this article, alternative interest rate processes are estimated for Denmark, Germany, Sweden, and the UK, using the generalized method of moments (GMM), and it is found that mean-reversion plays an important role for the specification of the interest rate dynamics.
Abstract
In this paper alternative interest rate processes are estimated for Denmark, Germany, Sweden, and the UK, using the generalized method of moments (GMM). In line with the study by Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff, and Sanders (1992) on US data, there seems to be a positive relation between interest rate level and volatility for some countries. In contrast to their study, it is found that mean-reversion plays an important role for the specification of the interest rate dynamics. The results seem to be robust to the use of different moment conditions, and simulations of the estimated models reveal that they are fairly able to capture non-fitted moments as well. In addition, there is evidence of a structural change in the Danish interest rate process in August 1985, which may be due to a change in monetary policy. The small sample properties of the GMM estimators are also studied through simulations.

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Regime-switching and interest rates in the European monetary system

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Stationary processes that look like random walks— the bounded random walk process in discrete and continuous time

TL;DR: In this paper, a discrete-time and a continuous-time process (diffusion process) is proposed to generate bounded random walks, where the paths are almost indistinguishable from random walks although they are stochastically bounded by an upper and lower finite limit.
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Estimating the implied distribution of the future short term interest rate using the Longstaff-Schwartz model

TL;DR: In this article, the use of the two-factor term-structure model of Longstaff and Schwartz (1992a, LS) was used to estimate the risk-neutral density (RND) of the future short-term interest rate.
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Further evidence on alternative continuous time models of the short-term interest rate

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the stochastic behavior of the 1-month interbank rate in ten countries using an exact maximum likelihood estimator, which is based on the recently introduced Gaussian methodology.
References
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors deduced a set of restrictions on option pricing formulas from the assumption that investors prefer more to less, which are necessary conditions for a formula to be consistent with a rational pricing theory.
Journal ArticleDOI

A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors use an intertemporal general equilibrium asset pricing model to study the term structure of interest rates and find that anticipations, risk aversion, investment alternatives, and preferences about the timing of consumption all play a role in determining bond prices.
Journal ArticleDOI

An equilibrium characterization of the term structure

TL;DR: In this article, the authors derived a general form of the term structure of interest rates and showed that the expected rate of return on any bond in excess of the spot rate is proportional to its standard deviation.