Journal ArticleDOI
Phase-Correcting Data Assimilation and Application to Storm-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction. Part II: Application to a Severe Storm Outbreak
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TLDR
In this article, a scheme to correct phase errors in numerical model forecasts using Doppler radar, radiosonde, profiler, and surface data is demonstrated to improve forecasts in a complex severe thunderstorm situation.Abstract:
A scheme to correct phase errors in numerical model forecasts using Doppler radar, radiosonde, profiler, and surface data is demonstrated to improve forecasts in a complex severe thunderstorm situation. The technique is designed to directly address forecast phase errors or initial position errors as part of a data assimilation strategy. In the demonstration the phase error correction is applied near the time of initial cell development and the forecast results are compared to the uncorrected forecast and forecasts made using an analysis created at the time of the observations. Forecasts are verified qualitatively for the position of thunderstorm cells and quantitatively for accumulated precipitation. It is shown that the scheme can successfully correct errors in thunderstorm locations and it has a positive influence on the subsequent forecast. The advantage of the phase correction over the control lasts for about 3 h despite storm dissipation and regeneration, and interactions among multiple storms.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
A Short Course in Cloud Physics
TL;DR: Many current topics are covered such as mesoscale meteorology, radar cloud studies and numerical cloud modelling, and topics from the second edition, such as severe storms, precipitation processes and large scale aspects of cloud physics, have been revised.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS), storm-scale numerical weather prediction and data assimilation
TL;DR: The Advanced Regional Prediction System of the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms at the University of Oklahoma as discussed by the authors was used to predict a series of supercell storms that produced a historical number of tornadoes more than 8 hours in advance to within tens of kilometers in space.
Journal ArticleDOI
Convective-scale assimilation of radar data : Progress and challenges
TL;DR: In this paper, a review of techniques used in convective-scale data assimilation research is presented, and a number of future challenges are discussed, as well as the future challenges of convective scale data processing.
Journal ArticleDOI
A Displacement-Based Error Measure Applied in a Regional Ensemble Forecasting System
Christian Keil,George C. Craig +1 more
TL;DR: A novel forecast quality measure is proposed that is based on a comparison of observed and forecast satellite imagery from the Meteosat-7 geostationary satellite that provides a plausible measure of forecast error, which is consistent with a subjective ranking of ensemble members for a sample forecast.
Journal ArticleDOI
Phase-Correcting Data Assimilation and Application to Storm-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction. Part I: Method Description and Simulation Testing
TL;DR: In this article, an objective method for determining and correcting phase or position errors in numerical weather prediction is described and tested in a radar data observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) addressing the forecasting of ongoing thunderstorms.
References
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Book ChapterDOI
On the distribution and continuity of water substance in atmospheric circulations
TL;DR: In this paper, the conservation and distribution of water substance in atmospheric circulations are considered within a frame of continuity principles, model air flows, and models of microphysical processes, where the simplest considerations of precipitation involve its vertical distribution in an updraft column, where condensate appears immediately as precipitation with uniform terminal fallspeed.
Book
A short course in cloud physics
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe the thermodynamic properties of dry air water vapor and its thermodynamic effects Parcel buoyancy and atmospheric stability Mixing and convection Observed properties of clouds Formation of cloud droplets Droplet growth by condensation Initiation of rain in nonfreezing clouds Formation and growth of ice crystals Rain and snow Weather radar Precipitation processes Severe storm and hail Weather modification Numerical cloud models References Appendix Answers to selected problems Index
Journal ArticleDOI
The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) – A multi-scale nonhydrostatic atmospheric simulation and prediction model. Part I: Model dynamics and verification
TL;DR: The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) as mentioned in this paper is a non-hydrostatic model developed at the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) at the University of Oklahoma.
Journal ArticleDOI
The WSR-88D Rainfall Algorithm
TL;DR: In this paper, a detailed description of the operational WSR-88D rainfall estimation algorithm is presented, and the processing steps to quality control and compute the rainfall estimates are described, and current deficiencies and future plans for improvement are discussed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Data Assimilation Using Incremental Analysis Updates
TL;DR: A linear analysis of the IAU procedure shows it to have the attractive properties of a low-pass time filter, and this result is contrasted with a simple dynamical relaxation scheme, which is shown, in this linear analysis, to have less desirable response characteristics.