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Policy Rules and Large Crises in Emerging Markets

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TLDR
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Latin American countries temporarily suspended rules limiting debt, scal and monetary policies as mentioned in this paper , which implied a substantial deterioration of macroeconomic variables (e.g., real GDP declined by 9 . 5%) and high welfare costs (which was estimated as equivalent to a 13% one-time reduction in non-tradable consumption).
Abstract
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Latin American countries temporarily suspended rules limiting debt, fiscal and monetary policies. Despite this increase in flexibility, the crisis implied a substantial deterioration of macroeconomic variables (e.g., real GDP declined by 9 . 5%) and high welfare costs (which we estimate as equivalent to a 13% one-time reduction in non-tradable consumption). This paper studies a sovereign default model with fiscal and monetary policies to assess the policy response and evaluate the gains from flexibility in times of severe distress.

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The Economic Impact of COVID-19 around the World

TL;DR: In this paper , the authors provide an account of the worldwide economic impact of the COVID-19 shock and find that the adverse effects on output and prices were significant and persistent, especially in emerging and developing countries.
Journal ArticleDOI

External Shocks versus Domestic Policies in Emerging Markets

TL;DR: This paper studied a sovereign default model with domestic fiscal and monetary policies to understand Argentina's experience during the 2000s commodity boom (2005-2017), following the default of 2001, and found that despite exceptionally favorable terms of trade, a rise in government spending led to higher taxation, inflation and currency depreciation, and lower output.
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The World Bank: Friend or foe to the poor?

Robin Stott
- 27 Mar 1999 - 
TL;DR: This week's BMJ includes the first of Kamran Abbasi's articles on the World Bank, and for health workers concerned with the pathology and relief of poverty, knowledge about the bank is as important as anatomy is to surgeons.
Posted Content

Default risk and income fluctuations in emerging economies

TL;DR: This paper developed a small open economy model to study default risk and its interaction with output, consumption, and foreign debt, which predicts that default incentives and interest rates are higher in recessions, as observed in the data.
Journal ArticleDOI

Defaultable Debt, Interest Rates and the Current Account

TL;DR: This article developed a quantitative model of debt and default in a small open economy and used this model to match four empirical regularities regarding emerging markets: defaults occur in equilibrium, interest rates are countercyclical, net exports are counter cyclical, and interest rates and the current account are positively correlated.
Posted Content

Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors constructed the first complete database of investor losses (haircuts) in all restructurings with foreign banks and bondholders from 1970 until 2010, covering 180 cases in 68 countries.