Open Access
Quantifying Uncertainty into Numerical Probabilities for the Reporting of Intelligence
Thomas A. Brown,Emir H. Shuford +1 more
TLDR
Any degree of uncertainty over these events or the information can be quantified into numerical probabilities, which can then be readily and accurately communicated within the system.Abstract:
: Within intelligence systems, it is important to assess the probability that certain events will occur and to determine the reliability of information on them. Any degree of uncertainty over these events or the information can be quantified into numerical probabilities, which can then be readily and accurately communicated within the system. Four advantages which stem from using numerical probabilities are discussed.read more
Citations
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Book ChapterDOI
Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art
TL;DR: From the subjectivist point of view (de Finetti, 1937) a probability is a degree of belief in a proposition whose truth has not been ascertained and there is no “right” or “correct” probability that resides somewhere “in reality” against which it can be compared.
ReportDOI
Advanced Analysis Cognition: Improving the Cognition of Intelligence Analysis
TL;DR: The State of Knowledge Relative to Intelligence Analysis (SOWR) as mentioned in this paper was a recent effort to understand the research findings in relevant scientific disciplines and to relate these findings to the practice of intelligence analysis.
Journal ArticleDOI
Scoring-rule feedback and the overconfidence syndrome in subjective probability forecasting
TL;DR: This paper tested the hypothesis that scoring-rule-based payoffs and feedback would lead to better probability forecasts and found that people tend to be overconfident when making subjective probability forecasts.
Dissertation
Reflection amplifiers in self-regulated learning
TL;DR: Verpoorten et al. as discussed by the authors used reflection amplifiers in self-regulated learning and achieved state-of-the-art performance on the task of self-regulation.
Proceedings Article
Hedging their Mets: The Use of Uncertainty Terms in Clinical Documents and its Potential Implications when Sharing the Documents with Patients
TL;DR: The objective was to delineate the prevalence of hedge phrase usage in clinical documentation which may have a profound impact on patient care and provider-patient communication, and may become a source of unintended consequences when such documents are made directly accessible to patients via patient portals.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Relative importance of probabilities and payoffs in risk taking
Paul Slovic,Sarah Lichtenstein +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, it is proposed that decisions may be determined by a person's beliefs about the relative importance of probabilities and payoffs and by limitations on his ability to make decisions about gambles.
Journal ArticleDOI
Admissible probability measurement procedures.
TL;DR: In this case, it is shown that a certain minor modification of a scoring system with the reproducing property yields the desired admissible probability measurement procedure.
Journal ArticleDOI
Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors
TL;DR: In this article, it was shown that with the exception of a logarithmic payoff function, these two uses of payoff functions for assessors are not compatible and explained in terms of the differences in the situations facing the assessor and the evaluator.
Journal ArticleDOI
Scalar and Vector Partitions of the Probability Score: Part I. Two-State Situation
TL;DR: In this article, scalar and vector partitions of the probability score in the two-state situation are described and compared, and a sample collection of forecasts is used to illustrate the differences between these partitions.