Journal ArticleDOI
Surprise and Change in International Politics
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This article is published in International Security.The article was published on 1980-01-21. It has received 17 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Surprise & International relations.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Criticism and the Growth of Knowledge. Edited by I. Lakatos and A. Musgrave. Pp. viii, 282. £3·50, paperback £1. 1970. (Cambridge University Press.)
ReportDOI
Advanced Analysis Cognition: Improving the Cognition of Intelligence Analysis
TL;DR: The State of Knowledge Relative to Intelligence Analysis (SOWR) as mentioned in this paper was a recent effort to understand the research findings in relevant scientific disciplines and to relate these findings to the practice of intelligence analysis.
Journal ArticleDOI
Intelligence and the Problem of Strategic Surprise
TL;DR: The study of strategic surprise can be rather disappointing for those who have always assumed that a better theoretical understanding of the subject at hand would logically lead to the discovery of more effective practical means to anticipate strategic surprise and alleviate its impact.
Journal ArticleDOI
Preventing Intelligence Failures by Learning from the Past
TL;DR: The literature on strategic surprise and intelligence failure contains nuggets of insight that United States policymakers can mine in their attempts to prevent future terrorist attacks as mentioned in this paper, which can be used to predict future attacks.
Journal ArticleDOI
Sadat and the Egyptian–Israeli Peace Revisited
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors focused on the role of Sadat's personal characteristics as the main factor behind the Egyptian foreign-policy shift towards Israel and emphasized the centrality of the former Egyptian leader's role in explaining Egypt's exit from the conflict with Israel.
References
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The structure of scientific revolutions
TL;DR: The structure of scientific revolutions (1962) / Thomas Samuel Kuhn (1922-1996) is a book about the history of science and its discontents.
Journal ArticleDOI
Criticism and the Growth of Knowledge
Imre Lakatos,Alan Musgrave +1 more
TL;DR: The distinction between normal and revolutionary science hold water as mentioned in this papereyerabend, T. S. Kuhn and T. E. Toulmin have made a distinction between the two categories of science.
Journal ArticleDOI
Criticism and the Growth of Knowledge. Edited by I. Lakatos and A. Musgrave. Pp. viii, 282. £3·50, paperback £1. 1970. (Cambridge University Press.)
Journal ArticleDOI
The Organizational and Interorganizational Development of Disasters
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined and classified public inquiries into behavior connected with three major disasters to study the conditions under which large-scale intelligence failures develop, including rigidities in institutional beliefs, distracting decoy phenomena, neglect of outside complaints, multiple information-handling difficulties, exacerbation of the hazards by strangers, failure to comply with regulations, and a tendency to minimize emergent danger.