The Transition from an Agricultural to an Industrial Economy in East Asia

TLDR: The transition to an industrial economy is completed when the industrial labor force (in mining, construction, manufacturing, public utilities, transport, communication, and storage) rises to exceed the declining agricultural labor force as discussed by the authors.

Abstract: In my framework, the transition to an industrial economy is completed when the industrial labor force (in mining, construction, manufacturing, public utilities, transport, communication, and storage) rises to exceed the declining agricultural labor force. Though an approximate concept, it is a useful one because in the case of postwar Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea (Hong Kong and Singapore have no significant agricultural sector) it was accompanied by the completion of the demographic transition (whereby high plateaus of birth rates declined to much lower levels) and by the completion of the distributive transition (whereby high plateaus of income disparity fell to lower levels).' The industrial transition is more difficult in monsoon Asia than in the West because of the nature of monsoon paddy agriculture, which happens to be the main livelihood of about one-half of the world. No Asian nation, not even Japan, was able to complete the transition before World War II (although some Latin American nations did). Despite high growth rates, the Philippines, Thailand, and Indonesia are still a decade or so away from the completion, with Malaysia near completion. Hong Kong and Singapore moved easily into an industrial economy from a traditional service economy because of the absence of a large agricultural sector, whereas India and China, with enormous agricultural sectors, are several decades from completion.