Can AI predict geopolitical events?
Best insight from top research papers
AI has shown promise in predicting geopolitical events. The combination of machine learning models with human forecasters has been successful in improving forecasting accuracy . Crowdsourcing and hybridizing human and machine models have been effective in increasing performance . Deep siamese neural networks have been used to aggregate forecasts from volunteer analysts, resulting in more accurate predictions . Multitask learning algorithms have been employed to recommend suitable questions to forecasters, increasing prediction accuracy . These advancements in AI have demonstrated the potential for predicting geopolitical events with greater accuracy than traditional methods . However, it is important to note that while AI can improve forecasting, it is still a challenging task and experts often struggle to outperform random baselines .
Answers from top 5 papers
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| Papers (5) | Insight |
|---|---|
27 Nov 2018 | The paper discusses a deep siamese neural network model for aggregating predictions from volunteer analysts in geopolitical event forecasting, but it does not explicitly mention whether AI can predict geopolitical events. |
2 Citations | The provided paper does not specifically mention AI's ability to predict geopolitical events. |
27 Sep 2018 22 Citations | The paper proposes a crowdsourcing triage algorithm for geopolitical event forecasting, but it does not specifically mention AI predicting geopolitical events. |
01 Aug 2019 17 Citations | The paper does not directly answer the question of whether AI can predict geopolitical events. However, it discusses the use of machine models in combination with human input to improve forecasting accuracy. |
4 Citations | Yes, the paper proposes that machine learning and artificial intelligence techniques can be used to forecast geopolitical events. |
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