What is the difference between lee carter mortality model and plat (2009) mortality model?5 answersThe Lee-Carter mortality model and the Plat (2009) mortality model differ in their performance and approach to mortality rate predictions. The Lee-Carter model has been critiqued for its limitations in accurately modeling mortality data with varying speeds of change. On the other hand, the Plat (2009) model, which incorporates the ARCH method, has shown better performance in terms of forecasting accuracy on Nigeria mortality data when compared to the Lee-Carter model. Additionally, a study comparing different recurrent neural networks and the Lee-Carter model found that while the Lee-Carter model with ARIMA exhibited the best overall performance, the recurrent neural networks could also be viable options for mortality forecasting in the United States. These differences highlight the varying strengths and weaknesses of each model in predicting mortality rates.
What are the solutions about overpopulation?4 answersSmart cities with self-driving cars are seen as a solution to overpopulated cities, providing fast, comfortable, economical, safe, and secure transportation. However, the feasibility of rapidly reducing the population as a solution to overpopulation is questioned, and it is argued that finding a feasible solution should be prioritized. The impact of humans having smaller frontal lobes is also suggested as a cause of overpopulation, resource depletion, and global warming, with the solution being to stop damaging our frontal lobes. Voluntary limitation of human fertility is proposed as a way to make the world more just and address the environmental and social impacts of overpopulation. Additionally, a definition of overpopulation based on average daily animal protein intake per capita is proposed, and it is argued that a reduction in population is necessary even after achieving zero population growth.
How is the lee-carter model used for understanding mortality rates?5 answersThe Lee-Carter model is used for understanding mortality rates by forecasting future mortality trends. It is a popular model that has been applied in various situations and countries. The model takes into account the changing patterns of mortality rates across different ages and years. It has been found to be effective in modeling mortality data with constant speeds of change in mortality. However, when mortality data has varying speeds of change, the Lee-Carter model may not perform well. In such cases, alternative models like the Generalized Lee-Carter model have been proposed and found to be great for forecasting mortality rates. The Lee-Carter model has also been used to forecast mortality rates in specific countries like Hungary, where it has been found to be applicable due to the normalizing behavior of mortality rates. Additionally, the Lee-Carter model has been extended to incorporate macroeconomic variables and enhance forecasting accuracy. The robustness of the Lee-Carter model has been analyzed through sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, which have shown that the model is robust against random perturbations and short-term changes.
What are the advantages and disadvantages of using multi-state models to model disease progression?5 answersMulti-state models have several advantages for modeling disease progression. They allow for the study of time-varying exposures and the analysis of transitions between multiple health states. These models can also incorporate cure proportions to account for individuals who may never leave a certain state. Additionally, multi-state models can quantify intervention effects by comparing the intensities of transitions between states in different conditions. They can also measure the change in the percentage of the population achieving a specific state due to an intervention. However, there are some potential disadvantages to using multi-state models. Biased results may occur under certain conditions, and the heterogeneity of disease progression in patients can pose a challenge.
What are the different causes of overpopulation?3 answersOverpopulation is caused by various factors. One major cause is the lack of access to modern medical facilities and high illiteracy rates in certain regions of developing countries, leading to an inverted pyramid demographic structure. This, in turn, puts increased pressure on existing natural resources, resulting in adverse effects such as deforestation, climate change, decline in biocapacity, urban sprawl, food insecurity, increased energy demand, and negative impacts on marine ecosystems. Additionally, the variability of conventional demographic indices, such as birth rates, death rates, and infant mortality rates, in developing countries contributes to the problem. The success or failure of population policies in countries like India and China, which have a significant portion of the world's population, will have a crucial impact on the future of humanity. Concrete steps need to be taken at national and international levels to address the adverse effects of overpopulation and ensure the sustainability of natural resources for future generations.
What are the negative effects of overpopulation?2 answersOverpopulation has various negative effects. These include scarcity of food, freshwater, and resources, unemployment, poverty, deforestation, and an increase in greenhouse gases, ozone layer depletion, and global warming. The impacts of overpopulation are not only on the environment but also on the socio-economic condition of countries. India, for example, ranks third in emitting Carbon Di Oxide gas. Overpopulation leads to fresh water and food shortage, environmental damage, decline in biocapacity, urban sprawl, and increased pressure on natural resources. It also contributes to climate change, decline in welfare, and effect on the marine ecosystem. Concrete steps need to be taken to combat these adverse effects and ensure the sustainability of natural resources for future generations.