Showing papers on "Energy market published in 1984"
Book•
01 Feb 1984
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an analysis of the world energy and petroleum markets, carried out by means of an econometric simulation model, which accepts a certain pricing path for OPEC crude oil together with assumptions about GDP and population growth, and generates energy balance projections for seven world regions, three industrial and four developing.
Abstract: This paper presents an analysis of the world energy and petroleum markets, carried out by means of an econometric simulation model. The model accepts a certain pricing path for OPEC crude oil together with assumptions about GDP and population growth, and generates energy balance projections for seven world regions, three industrial and four developing. The demand side of the model consists of three end-use sectors (transportation, industrial, and residential/commercial) and one energy transformation sector (thermal power generation). The model presently has an endogenous supply specification only for coal. Simulation results portend that world demand for energy and petroleum is likely to remain at relatively low levels throughout the 1980s and early 1990s, staying comfortably within OPEC's productive capacity through the early 1990s. In addition, the results show that a pricing path that calls for steady price increases at a moderate rate starting from the second half of the 1980s is probably close to the optimal long-term pricing path for OPEC. Revenues of the two OPEC subgroups show greater sensitivity to the choice of a production prorationing regime than to the choice of a pricing path.
6 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the potential demand of hydrogen as a raw material was found to be about 20 MTCE in 2030, and the market would be in chemistry, fuel production and iron and steel industry.
4 citations
01 Aug 1984
TL;DR: A crude oil price forecasting system that uses economic activity as the primary exogenous input is presented in this article, where oil is priced at its marginal value in the world energy market.
Abstract: A crude oil price forecasting system is presented that uses economic activity as the primary exogenous input. OPEC has chosen to be the swing supplier to meet the last increment of demand in the world oil market. This choice is implemented by restraining the competition for market share among its members. Under these conditions, oil is priced at its marginal value in the world energy market.
2 citations
01 Jan 1984
TL;DR: In this paper, a decomposition and co-ordination technique is employed to minimize the net cost of electricity supply, which is solved by an advanced method of dynamic programming, and the decomposition process creates the problem of maximizing the value of the hydroelectric generation.
Abstract: In the production scheduling model proposed in this paper, a decomposition and co-ordination technique is employed to minimize the net cost of electricity supply. The decomposition process creates the problem of maximizing the value of the hydroelectric generation, which is solved by an advanced method of dynamic programming. Through the proposed non-aggregate formulation large systems can be dealt with a comprehensive and detailed operation planning model that includes thermal operation costs and hydroelectric power generation as non-linear functions, water head variations, hydraulic networks with cascade plants and spilling, and a probabilistic treatment of streamflows, unit availabilities and load demands. The non-hydraulic “generation” units, that include imports and load sheddings, are represented by their incremental production costs. The energy market is formed by a random component called primary demand, and by secondary loads, which include exports. The secondary loads are represented by incremental profit curves.
1 citations