Showing papers on "Forced outage published in 1975"

Variance and approximate confidence limits on LOLP for a single-area system

Abstract: The paper presents a method for recognizing the uncertain nature of generator forced outage rates as used in computing the popular reliability index of LOLP (expected number of days per period on which capacity is insufficient) for a single-area system by treating forced outage rates as random variables with specified mean and variance. An efficient method is presented for computing the variance of LOLP in addition to the mean. Monte Carlo simulation studies indicate that LOLP is approximately gamma distributed regardless of the distribution of generator forced outage rates. Hence, approximate confidence limits for LOLP can be obtained using the gamma distribution with parameters corresponding to the computed mean and variance of LOLP.

A reliability approach to interconnection planning

Abstract: Probability methods have been used to investigate the effect of the outage of key transmission lines on the reliability of an interconnected power system. The results have been expressed as the probability of loss of import capability due to loss of such key lines. A study technique is developed that relates the reliability of the simultaneous interchange capability (SIC) to a given interconnected system during periods when intercompany transfers are required. Application of the study technique to a typical system demonstrates the sensitivity of the method to various forced outage rates and to the number of days involving heavy transmission loading.