Showing papers on "Present value of costs published in 2011"

Optimization of Project Time-Cost Trade-Off Problem with Discounted Cash Flows

Abstract: Traditional time-cost trade-off (TCTO) analysis assumes constant value of activities' cost along the project time span. However, the value of money decreases with time and, therefore, discounted cash flows should be considered when solving TCTO optimization problem. Optimization problems in project management have been traditionally solved by two distinctive approaches: heuristic methods and optimization techniques. Although heuristic methods can handle large-size projects, they do not guarantee optimal solutions. A nonlinear mathematical optimization model for project TCTO problem is developed, which minimizes project direct cost and takes into account discounted cash flows. Costs of activities are assumed to be incurred at their finish times. The model guarantees the optimal solution, in which precise discrete activity time-cost function is used. The model input includes precedence relationship between project activities, discrete utility data for project activities, and discount rate. Details of model formulation are illustrated by an example project. The results show that selected activities' durations and costs and consequently optimal project duration differ from traditional analysis if discounted cash flow is considered. The new approach provides project practitioners with a way for considering net present value in time-cost decisions so that the best option can be identified.

Evaluation of Real Options with Information Costs

Abstract: This paper presents a simple framework for the analysis, valuation and simulation of several real options in the presence of shadow costs of incomplete information. Information costs can be viewed as sunk costs in the spirit of Merton’s (1987) model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information. We incorporate these sunk costs in standard discounted cash flow techniques and present the basic concepts of real options. The justification of information costs in real projects is based on the observation that R&D needs to be done before investment decisions. These costs account for all the expenses needed to be informed about an investment opportunity and the management of projects. This analysis extends the models in Bellalah (1999, 2001) for the valuation of real options within information uncertainty. We present valuation procedures and simulations for the values of common real options in the presence of shadow costs of incomplete information.

Cost-benefit analysis for investment

Abstract: An investment project usually lasts for many years, hence its appraisal requires a comparison of the costs and benefits over its entire life. For acceptance, the present value of the project’s expected benefits should exceed the present value of its expected costs. Among a set of mutually exclusive projects, the one with the highest net present value (NPV) should be chosen. This criterion requires the use of a discount rate in order to be able to compare the benefits and costs that are distributed over the life of the investment. The discount rate recommended here for the calculation of the economic NPV of projects is the economic opportunity cost of capital for the country. If the economic NPV of a project is greater than zero, it is potentially worthwhile to implement the project. This implies that the project would generate more net economic benefits than the same resources would have generated if used elsewhere in the economy. On the other hand, if the NPV is less than zero, the project should be rejected on the grounds that the resources invested would have yielded a higher economic return if they had been left for the capital market to allocate them to other uses. This chapter explains how the economic opportunity cost of funds to an economy is derived and how it is used in the appraisal of an investment to calculate its economic present value.

The economic opportunity cost of capital

Abstract: An investment project usually lasts for many years, hence its appraisal requires a comparison of the costs and benefits over its entire life. For acceptance, the present value of the project’s expected benefits should exceed the present value of its expected costs. Among a set of mutually exclusive projects, the one with the highest net present value (NPV) should be chosen. This criterion requires the use of a discount rate in order to be able to compare the benefits and costs that are distributed over the life of the investment. The discount rate recommended here for the calculation of the economic NPV of projects is the economic opportunity cost of capital for the country. If the economic NPV of a project is greater than zero, it is potentially worthwhile to implement the project. This implies that the project would generate more net economic benefits than the same resources would have generated if used elsewhere in the economy. On the other hand, if the NPV is less than zero, the project should be rejected on the grounds that the resources invested would have yielded a higher economic return if they had been left for the capital market to allocate them to other uses. This chapter explains how the economic opportunity cost of funds to an economy is derived and how it is used in the appraisal of an investment to calculate its economic present value.

CTMCs with Costs and Rewards

Abstract: We consider continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) where there are costs and rewards associated with each state. For such a CTMC, the objective usually is to calculate either the long-run average costs incurred per unit time or the total discounted cost incurred over an infinite horizon. We illustrate the calculations using several examples and conclude with applications to system performance analysis. Keywords: CTMC; average costs; discounted costs; steady-state probability