Convergence of Probability Measures. By P. Billingsley. Chichester, Sussex, Wiley, 1968. xii, 253 p. 9 1/4“. 117s.

Convergence of Probability Measures

In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators

From the Publisher:
This book takes an empirical approach to language processing, based on applying statistical and other machine-learning algorithms to large corpora.Methodology boxes are included in each chapter. Each chapter is built around one or more worked examples to demonstrate the main idea of the chapter. Covers the fundamental algorithms of various fields, whether originally proposed for spoken or written language to demonstrate how the same algorithm can be used for speech recognition and word-sense disambiguation. Emphasis on web and other practical applications. Emphasis on scientific evaluation. Useful as a reference for professionals in any of the areas of speech and language processing.

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Speech and Language Processing: An Introduction to Natural Language Processing, Computational Linguistics, and Speech Recognition

On robust estimation of the location parameter

Processing interactions and lexical access during word recognition in continuous speech

Modelling the abundance of rare species: statistical models for counts with extra zeros

The problem of estimating shape and scale parameters for a distribution with regularly varying tails is related to that of nonparametrically estimating a density at a fixed point, in that optimal construction of the estimators depends substantially upon unknown features of the distribution. We show how to overcome this problem by using adaptive methods. Our main results hold very generally, for a large class of adaptive estimators. Later we consider specific versions of adaptive estimators, and describe their performance both in theory and by means of simulation studies. We also examine a technique proposed by Hill (1975) for solving similar problems.

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Adaptive Estimates of Parameters of Regular Variation

Generalized additive modelling and zero inflated count data

Summary. Various bootstraps have been proposed for bootstrapping clustered data from one-way arrays. The simulation results in the literature suggest that some of these methods work quite well in practice; the theoretical results are limited and more mixed in their conclusions. For example, McCullagh reached negative conclusions about the use of non-parametric bootstraps for one-way arrays. The purpose of this paper is to extend our understanding of the issues by discussing the effect of different ways of modelling clustered data, the criteria for successful bootstraps used in the literature and extending the theory from functions of the sample mean to include functions of the between and within sums of squares and non-parametric bootstraps to include model-based bootstraps. We determine that the consistency of variance estimates for a bootstrap method depends on the choice of model with the residual bootstrap giving consistency under the transformation model whereas the cluster bootstrap gives consistent estimates under both the transformation and the random-effect model. In addition we note that the criteria based on the distribution of the bootstrap observations are not really useful in assessing consistency.

/pdf/bootstrapping-clustered-data-32g248vh9v.pdf

Alan H. Welsh

Papers

Processing interactions and lexical access during word recognition in continuous speech

Modelling the abundance of rare species: statistical models for counts with extra zeros

Adaptive Estimates of Parameters of Regular Variation

Generalized additive modelling and zero inflated count data

Bootstrapping clustered data