Climate change will alter freshwater ecosystems but specific effects will vary among regions and the type of water body. Here, we give an integrative review of the observed and predicted impacts of climate change on shallow lakes in the Netherlands and put these impacts in an international perspective. Most of these lakes are man-made and have preset water levels and poorly developed littoral zones. Relevant climatic factors for these ecosystems are temperature, ice-cover and wind. Secondary factors affected by climate include nutrient loading, residence time and water levels. We reviewed the relevant literature in order to assess the impact of climate change on these lakes. We focussed on six management objectives as bioindicators for the functioning of these ecosystems: target species, nuisance species, invading species, transparency, carrying capacity and biodiversity. We conclude that climate change will likely (i) reduce the numbers of several target species of birds; (ii) favour and stabilize cyanobacterial dominance in phytoplankton communities; (iii) cause more serious incidents of botulism among waterfowl and enhance the spreading of mosquito borne diseases; (iv) benefit invaders originating from the Ponto-Caspian region; (v) stabilize turbid, phytoplankton-dominated systems, thus counteracting restoration measures; (vi) destabilize macrophyte-dominated clear-water lakes; (vii) increase the carrying capacity of primary producers, especially phytoplankton, thus mimicking eutrophication; (viii) affect higher trophic levels as a result of enhanced primary production; (ix) have a negative impact on biodiversity which is linked to the clear water state; (x) affect biodiversity by changing the disturbance regime. Water managers can counteract these developments by reduction of nutrient loading, development of the littoral zone, compartmentalization of lakes and fisheries management.

The impact of climate change on lakes in the Netherlands: a review

Data from long-term ecosystem monitoring and research stations in North America and results of simulations made with interpretive models indicate that changes in climate (precipitation and temperature) can have a significant effect on the quality of surface waters. Changes in water quality during storms, snowmelt, and periods of elevated air temperature or drought can cause conditions that exceed thresholds of ecosystem tolerance and, thus, lead to water-quality degradation. If warming and changes in available moisture occur, water-quality changes will likely first occur during episodes of climate-induced stress, and in ecosystems where the factors controlling water quality are sensitive to climate variability. Continued climate stress would increase the frequency with which ecosystem thresholds are exceeded and thus lead to chronic water-quality changes. Management strategies in a warmer climate will therefore be needed that are based on local ecological thresholds rather than annual median condition. Changes in land use alter biological, physical, and chemical processes in watersheds and thus significantly alter the quality of adjacent surface waters; these direct human-caused changes complicate the interpretation of water-quality changes resulting from changes in climate, and can be both mitigated and exacerbated by climate change. A rigorous strategy for integrated, long-term monitoring of the ecological and human factors that control water quality is necessary to differentiate between actual and perceived climate effects, and to track the effectiveness of our environmental policies.

Potential effects of climate change on surface‐water quality in north america

Impact of summer droughts on the water quality of the Meuse river

We review twentieth century and projected twenty-first century changes in climatic and hydrologic conditions in the northeastern United States and the implications of these changes for forest ecosy...

https://www.forest.sr.unh.edu/richardson/HuntingtonCJFR2009.pdf

Climate and hydrological changes in the northeastern United States : recent trends and implications for forested and aquatic ecosystems

Global average surface temperatures are expected to rise by about 1.4–5.8°C from the present until the year 2100. This temperature increase will affect all ecosystems on earth. For shallow lakes—which can be either in a clear water or a turbid state—this climate change will expectedly negatively affect water transparency though the prediction is far from conclusive and experimental investigations elucidating the potential climatic effects on shallow lakes are still rare. The aim of this study was to further shape and sharpens hypotheses on the impact of climate change on shallow lakes by applying an existing and well-calibrated ecosystem model, PCLake. We focused on asymptotic model behaviour for a range of temperature and loading scenarios in a factorial design. We conclude that climate change will likely lead to decreased critical nutrient loadings. Combined with an expected increase in the external nutrient loading, this will increase the probability of a shift from a clear to a turbid state. As the model predicts a higher summer chlorophyll-a concentration, a stronger dominance of cyanobacteria during summer and a reduced zooplankton abundance due to climate change, the turbid state itself is likely to become even more severe.

/pdf/predicting-the-effect-of-climate-change-on-temperate-shallow-1v8y0qi9wr.pdf

Predicting the effect of climate change on temperate shallow lakes with the ecosystem model PCLake

Lake Oglethorpe, Georgia, is a small, monomictic impoundment in the southeastern U.S. Piedmont region. Seasonal differences in ecological processes correspond to the two major stratification patterns and result in seasonal differences in pelagic community structure. The winter mixed period (November-March) provides light and temperatures suitable for active nutrient regeneration and uptake, population growth of edible phytoplankton and crustacean zooplankton, and low bacterial abundance and production. Monthly estimates of daily primary productivity are in the mesoeutrophic range (40-1,420 mg C m -2 d -1 ) ; however, mean annual primary productivity is in the eutrophic range (500 mg C m -2 yr -1 ) because of greater activity in winter and an extended growing season. The stratified period (April-October) is characterized by rapid development of hypolimnetic anoxia, high bacterial production, cyanobacteria and large algae, heterotrophic flagellates, ciliates, rotifers, small cyclopoid copepods, and Chaoborus. Heterotrophic activity, HPLC chlorophyll a, and grazer activity were highest at the epilimnetic-metalimnetic boundary. Bacterial abundances (1.5-32 x 10 6 cells ml -1 ) increased in the hypolimnion during the stratified period. Long-term (1978-1994) warming within the water column (0.061-0.10°C yr -1 ) follows midwinter (January) air temperature trends. Using Lake Oglethorpe as an analog, we predict as consequences of climatic warming in northern dimictic lakes : increases in nutrient cycling rates, winter primary and secondary productivity, summer heterotrophic production, and microbial components of the food web.

http://web.mnstate.edu/wisenden/AqBiol/limno%20paper%202.pdf

Annual cycle of autotrophic and heterotrophic production in a small, monomictic Piedmont lake (Lake Oglethorpe) : Analog for the effects of climatic warming on dimictic lakes

Alexander E. Macubbin

Papers

Annual cycle of autotrophic and heterotrophic production in a small, monomictic Piedmont lake (Lake Oglethorpe) : Analog for the effects of climatic warming on dimictic lakes