计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

1. Introduction and Overview. 2. Detecting Influential Observations and Outliers. 3. Detecting and Assessing Collinearity. 4. Applications and Remedies. 5. Research Issues and Directions for Extensions. Bibliography. Author Index. Subject Index.

Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity

Our article comprehensively reexamines the performance of variables that have been suggested by the academic literature to be good predictors of the equity premium. We find that by and large, these models have predicted poorly both in-sample (IS) and out-of-sample (OOS) for 30 years now; these models seem unstable, as diagnosed by their out-of-sample predictions and other statistics; and these models would not have helped an investor with access only to available information to profitably time the market.

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A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction

Goyal and Welch (2007) argue that the historical average excess stock return forecasts future excess stock returns better than regressions of excess returns on predictor variables. In this article, we show that many predictive regressions beat the historical average return, once weak restrictions are imposed on the signs of coefficients and return forecasts. The out-of-sample explanatory power is small, but nonetheless is economically meaningful for mean-variance investors. Even better results can be obtained by imposing the restrictions of steady-state valuation models, thereby removing the need to estimate the average from a short sample of volatile stock returns. (JEL G10, G11) Towards the end of the last century, academic finance economists came to take seriously the view that aggregate stock returns are predictable. During the 1980s, a number of papers studied valuation ratios, such as the dividend-price ratio, earnings-price ratio, or smoothed earnings-price ratio. Value-oriented investors in the tradition of Graham and Dodd (1934) had always asserted that high valuation ratios are an indication of an undervalued stock market and should predict high subsequent returns, but these ideas did not carry much weight in the academic literature until authors such as Rozeff (1984), Fama and French (1988), and Campbell and Shiller (1988a, 1988b) found that valuation ratios are positively correlated with subsequent returns and that the implied predictability of returns is substantial at longer horizons. Around the same time, several papers pointed out that yields on short- and long-term treasury and corporate bonds are correlated with subsequent stock returns (Fama and Schwert,1977;KeimandStambaugh,1986;Campbell,1987;FamaandFrench, 1989).

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Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?

Economics Of Discrimination

We list the papers that were most highly cited by top -level finance journals during the 1990s. We identify the top papers overall, the most frequently cited paper published in each of the past thirty years, and the most frequently cited papers published by journal. We use the most influential papers to construct suggested doctoral course reading lists in five finance research areas. We use a comprehensive sample of journals, an extensive time period, and a new ranking method that avoids problems inherent in the existing literature.

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Impact: What Influences Finance Research?

This paper uses detailed data from an online peer-to-peer lending intermediary to test whether local access to finance affects consumers’ willingness to pay for loans. After controlling for local economic conditions and borrower credit quality, we find that borrowers who reside in areas with good access to bank finance request loans with lower interest rates. This effect is stronger for borrowers with poor credit and those seeking small loans, suggesting that local access to finance is more important for marginal borrowers. Overall, our findings shed light on how consumers substitute between alternative sources of finance. This paper was accepted by Wei Jiang, finance.

Do Local Capital Market Conditions Affect Consumers’ Borrowing Decisions?

Previous studies document that the stock returns of bond issuing firms significantly underperform matched peers over the three to five years following issuance. We revisit this phenomenon and show that the underperformance is the result of an omitted return factor (a bad model problem). Debt issuers have significantly higher stock market liquidity than size and book-to-market matched counterparts, and differences in liquidity are largest for the worst performing groups of issuers. When we additionally match on liquidity or when we include a liquidity factor in the model for expected returns, the evidence of underperformance disappears.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID915350_code234044.pdf?abstractid=915350

Stock Market Liquidity and the Long-Run Stock Performance of Debt Issuers

Both market timing and investment-based theories of corporate financing predict underperformance after firms raise capital, but only market timing predicts that the composition of financing (equity compared to debt) should also forecast returns. In cross-sectional tests, we find that the amount of net financing is more important than its composition in explaining future stock returns. In the time-series, investment-based factor models explain abnormal stock performance following a variety of corporate financing events that previous studies link to market timing. At the aggregate level, the amount of new financing is also more important for future market returns than its composition. Overall, our joint tests reveal that measures of real investment are correlated with future returns while measures of managerial market timing are not.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2499864_code518295.pdf?abstractid=1370403&mirid=1

Corporate Financing Decisions, Managerial Market Timing, and Real Investment

Previous studies document that the stock returns of bond-issuing firms significantly underperform matched peers over the three to five years following issuance. We revisit this phenomenon and show that the underperformance is the result of an omitted return factor (a "bad model problem"). Debt issuers have significantly higher stock market liquidity than size and book-to-market matched counterparts, and differences in liquidity are largest for the worst-performing groups of issuers. When we additionally match on liquidity or when we include a liquidity factor in the model for expected returns, the evidence of underperformance disappears. The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org., Oxford University Press.

Alexander W. Butler

Papers

Impact: What Influences Finance Research?

Do Local Capital Market Conditions Affect Consumers’ Borrowing Decisions?

Stock Market Liquidity and the Long-Run Stock Performance of Debt Issuers

Corporate Financing Decisions, Managerial Market Timing, and Real Investment

Stock Market Liquidity and the Long-run Stock Performance of Debt Issuers