计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

1. Introduction and Overview. 2. Detecting Influential Observations and Outliers. 3. Detecting and Assessing Collinearity. 4. Applications and Remedies. 5. Research Issues and Directions for Extensions. Bibliography. Author Index. Subject Index.

Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity

Our article comprehensively reexamines the performance of variables that have been suggested by the academic literature to be good predictors of the equity premium. We find that by and large, these models have predicted poorly both in-sample (IS) and out-of-sample (OOS) for 30 years now; these models seem unstable, as diagnosed by their out-of-sample predictions and other statistics; and these models would not have helped an investor with access only to available information to profitably time the market.

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A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction

Goyal and Welch (2007) argue that the historical average excess stock return forecasts future excess stock returns better than regressions of excess returns on predictor variables. In this article, we show that many predictive regressions beat the historical average return, once weak restrictions are imposed on the signs of coefficients and return forecasts. The out-of-sample explanatory power is small, but nonetheless is economically meaningful for mean-variance investors. Even better results can be obtained by imposing the restrictions of steady-state valuation models, thereby removing the need to estimate the average from a short sample of volatile stock returns. (JEL G10, G11) Towards the end of the last century, academic finance economists came to take seriously the view that aggregate stock returns are predictable. During the 1980s, a number of papers studied valuation ratios, such as the dividend-price ratio, earnings-price ratio, or smoothed earnings-price ratio. Value-oriented investors in the tradition of Graham and Dodd (1934) had always asserted that high valuation ratios are an indication of an undervalued stock market and should predict high subsequent returns, but these ideas did not carry much weight in the academic literature until authors such as Rozeff (1984), Fama and French (1988), and Campbell and Shiller (1988a, 1988b) found that valuation ratios are positively correlated with subsequent returns and that the implied predictability of returns is substantial at longer horizons. Around the same time, several papers pointed out that yields on short- and long-term treasury and corporate bonds are correlated with subsequent stock returns (Fama and Schwert,1977;KeimandStambaugh,1986;Campbell,1987;FamaandFrench, 1989).

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Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?

Economics Of Discrimination

This paper uses detailed data from an online peer-to-peer lending intermediary to test whether local access to finance affects consumers’ willingness to pay for loans. After controlling for local economic conditions and borrower credit quality, we find that borrowers who reside in areas with good access to bank finance request loans with lower interest rates. This effect is stronger for borrowers with poor credit and those seeking small loans, suggesting that local access to finance is more important for marginal borrowers. Overall, our findings shed light on how consumers substitute between alternative sources of finance.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2577431_code518295.pdf?abstractid=1650617&mirid=5

Do Local Capital Market Conditions Affect Consumers' Borrowing Decisions?

Using a sample of 86 counties, we examine the cross-sectional determinants of sovereign credit ratings around the world. We find that the quality of legal and political institutions of a country plays a vital role in determining sovereign credit ratings. A one standard deviation increase in our legal environment index results in an average credit rating increase of 0.466 standard deviations, even when controlling for obvious factors such as GDP per capita, inflation, foreign debt per GDP, previous defaults, and general development. Indeed, the economic magnitude of a change in each of those variables is less than one-third of that for legal environment. Although part of this effect is due to legal environment's endogeneity, the relative importance of legal environment is robust to endogeneity concerns.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID894944_code234044.pdf?abstractid=652661

Institutional Environment and Sovereign Credit Ratings

This paper presents empirical evidence that stock market liquidity is an important determinant of the cost of raising external capital. Because the role of an investment banking syndicate in a public security offering is analogous to that of a block trader, investment banks should charge lower fees to firms with more liquid securities. Using a large sample of seasoned equity offerings, we find that, ceteris paribus, investment banks' fees are significantly lower for firms with more liquid stock. We estimate that the difference in the investment banking fee for firms in the most liquid quintile versus the least liquid quintile, controlling for other factors, is approximately 107 basis points, which represents about 22.3 percent of the average investment banking fee in our sample. Our findings suggest that firms have an incentive to promote the market liquidity of their equity.

Does Stock Market Liquidity Matter? Evidence from Seasoned Equity Offerings

We show that initial public offerings (IPOs) have nontrivial positive spillover effects on local labor markets, business environments, consumer spending, real estate, and migration. We mitigate endogeneity concerns about unobserved heterogeneity with restrictive geographic fixed effects coupled with a matching procedure. We show that it is the listing decision, which encompasses both a wealth and liquidity shock, that induces economic spillovers. Conditional on an IPO occurring, we estimate that an additional $10 million in IPO proceeds is associated with an extra 41 jobs and 0.7 new establishments locally.

Local Economic Spillover Effects of Stock Market Listings

We use venture-backed initial public offerings (IPOs) to identify and examine the comparative advantage of inexperienced venture capitalists. We argue that, vis-a-vis more established counterparts, younger venture capital firms have a comparative advantage at producing soft information about relatively opaque start-up companies due to their organizational structure. We then quantify an outcome — IPO initial return — from the matching of venture capitalists and start-up companies that demonstrates how this comparative advantage arises. Our findings thus reveal an important aspect of how inexperienced venture capitalists support start-up companies.

Alexander W. Butler

Papers

Do Local Capital Market Conditions Affect Consumers' Borrowing Decisions?

Institutional Environment and Sovereign Credit Ratings

Does Stock Market Liquidity Matter? Evidence from Seasoned Equity Offerings

Local Economic Spillover Effects of Stock Market Listings

On the Role of Inexperienced Venture Capitalists in Taking Companies Public