Over the past two decades, academic economics has undergone a mild revolution in methodology. The language, concepts and techniques of noncooperative game theory have become central to the discipline. This book provides the reader with some basic concepts from noncooperative theory, and then goes on to explore the strengths, weaknesses, and future of the theory as a tool of economic modelling and analysis. The central theses are that noncooperative game theory has been a remarkably popular tool in economics over the past decade because it allows analysts to capture essential features of dynamic competition and competition where some parties have proprietary information. The theory is weakest in providing a sense of when it - and equilibrium analysis in particular - can be applied and what to do when equilibrium analysis is inappropriate. Many of these weaknesses can be addressed by the consideration of individuals who are boundedly rational and learn imperfectly from the past. Written in a non-technical style and working by analogy, the book, first given as part of the Clarendon Lectures in Economics, is readily accessible to a broad audience and will be of interest to economists and students alike. Knowledge of game theory is not required as the concepts are developed as the book progresses.

Game Theory and Economic Modelling

Sigma Ratings is a new entrant to the anti-money laundering (AML) marketplace and seeks to alleviate some of the inherent flaws within the AML regime. This paper aims to examine those flaws and ask whether Sigma may succeed in this bourgeoning marketplace.,This paper is based upon a normative methodology, which takes place after reviewing the relevant literature to examine the potential success for Sigma Ratings.,The paper finds that there is indeed a position for Sigma Ratings in the marketplace, and that it may alleviate key issues within the AML regime.,The paper presents Sigma Ratings to the literature for the first time and positions this against an examination of the role of banks within AML – Sigma’s main demographic.

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Sigma ratings: adapting the credit rating agency model for the anti-money laundering world

The aim of this study is to present the trends and effectiveness of money laundering countermeasures from the perspective of a number of suspicious transactions reported to the Financial Intelligence Units (FIUs), a number of analysis results submitted to law enforcement authorities, and the typologies of cases in European Union Member States. In order to determine the impact of the joint effort in the fight against money laundering, we used descriptive statistics to process the data and case studies from annual reports of the European FIUs for 2018 and 2019. The results of our study highlight the increase in the number of suspicious transactions notices, as well as in their quality level. There is an increasing tendency towards information exchange between European Union countries regarding the suspicion of money laundering, but there is no stable trend for referring cases to law enforcement and other responsible institutions. Based on the available data, it can be concluded that the EU anti money laundering measures are efficient, but further steps are needed to achieve higher international coordination and cooperation.

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Efficiency of Money Laundering Countermeasures: Case Studies from European Union Member States


Purpose
This paper aims to provide an empirical analysis of the effects of regulatory enforcement and customer risk determinants on money laundering risk judgment. The study further explores the moderating impact of regulatory enforcement on compliance officers in the banking and money service business (MSB) sectors. The analysis is conducted to find the important factors that contribute to the issues of risk judgement among compliance officers to establish effective anti-money laundering (AML) and countering financing of terrorism compliance at the financial institutions, as highlighted in the National Risk Assessment Report 2017 by the Central Bank of Malaysia.


Design/methodology/approach
An experimental study with four different scenarios of case studies distributed to 124 compliance officers at the banking and MSB sectors was conducted via online platforms. The paper uses a quantitative approach via structural equation modelling.


Findings
The result shows a significant effect of customer risk determinants and regulatory enforcement on money laundering risk judgement, taking into account competency as the control measure. A further test on the interaction effects of both determinants shows a significant result on the money laundering risk judgement. The empirical evidence indicated that regulatory enforcement influenced compliance officers’ money laundering risk judgement and suspicious transaction report submission. In other words, the banking and MSB sectors’ AML compliance significantly depends on the regulators’ enforcement activity.


Research limitations/implications
This study is limited to two independent variables: regulatory enforcement and customer risk determinants. Future studies may consider other factors affecting compliance officers’ money laundering risk judgement, such as technical competency, knowledge management, digitalization and technology and ethical issues.


Practical implications
This study provides several theoretical and practical implications. Emphasizing the excellent quality of judgement and, eventually, good quality of reporting the suspicious transactions will not be achieved merely from enforcing fines and punishment, but comprehensive measures must be taken. Increasing the competency and training, educating the compliance officers, supporting the industry and practitioners with incentives and digitalization, enhancing the campaign and awareness among the public and standardizing the policy shall be the good initiatives for the regulatory enforcement to establish.


Originality/value
This paper provides a valuable contribution to the body of knowledge and fulfills the significant gaps in the literature on money laundering, not to mention, the integration between behavioural studies and anti-money laundering compliance, which has scarcely been statistically evident from the research studies.


Money laundering risk judgement by compliance officers at financial institutions in Malaysia: the effects of customer risk determinants and regulatory enforcement

In this paper, based on complex networks and evolutionary game theory, we use Text Mining and Analytics, MATLAB Simulation, and other technical means to study the decision-making process of each subject in the collaborative air pollution management network, taking the “limited rational” local government as the decision-making subject of the evolutionary game. The study finds that the cooperative network of small-scale air pollution management is a very important element in the evolutionary process. The small-scale air pollution collaborative governance network has the effect of significantly improving the evolution speed of local government collaborative governance decisions in the network. It can better mobilize local governments to participate in collaborative air pollution governance and realize the cooperative emergence with the ratio interval of income heterogeneity in [0.6, 1], preference heterogeneity in [1.2, 1.4], and allocation heterogeneity in [0.6, 1]. The results of the study are consistent with the actual situation, which verifies the validity and operability of the model. Finally, the article also proposes countermeasures to improve the dilemma of air pollution synergy caused by regional heterogeneity.

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The Evolutionary Game of Cooperative Air Pollution Management under Complex Networks

The fight against money laundering has taken center stage in the global arena. The European Union (EU), in line with various international organizations, plays an active role in the fight against this crime and promotes anti money laundering directions to its member states. The statistics regarding Portugal (a member of the EU since 1986) indicate that it lags behind most of the EU members in terms of reporting of suspicions of money laundering. This paper adopts a game theory approach to study the efficiency of the combat against money laundering in Portugal, both with regard to the financial and the non financial sector of the economy. Additionally, the paper studies the impact of the increase of sanctions, as recommended by the 4th Directive 2015/849 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20th May of 2015, on that combat. The results show that the low probability of the institutions being caught (and fined) for not complying with their reporting duties, coupled with the low conviction rates for money laundering crimes, justifies the reduced number of suspicious transactions reported. The findings highlight that an increase of sanctions, on both financial and non financial institutions, would tend to augment the efficiency of the combat against money laundering in Portugal.

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Ana Teresa Ferreira

Papers

Portuguese Anti-money Laundering Policy: a Game Theory Approach