Today's Web-enabled deluge of electronic data calls for automated methods of data analysis. Machine learning provides these, developing methods that can automatically detect patterns in data and then use the uncovered patterns to predict future data. This textbook offers a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of machine learning, based on a unified, probabilistic approach. The coverage combines breadth and depth, offering necessary background material on such topics as probability, optimization, and linear algebra as well as discussion of recent developments in the field, including conditional random fields, L1 regularization, and deep learning. The book is written in an informal, accessible style, complete with pseudo-code for the most important algorithms. All topics are copiously illustrated with color images and worked examples drawn from such application domains as biology, text processing, computer vision, and robotics. Rather than providing a cookbook of different heuristic methods, the book stresses a principled model-based approach, often using the language of graphical models to specify models in a concise and intuitive way. Almost all the models described have been implemented in a MATLAB software package--PMTK (probabilistic modeling toolkit)--that is freely available online. The book is suitable for upper-level undergraduates with an introductory-level college math background and beginning graduate students.

Machine Learning : A Probabilistic Perspective

Probabilistic graphical models and decision graphs are powerful modeling tools for reasoning and decision making under uncertainty. As modeling languages they allow a natural specification of problem domains with inherent uncertainty, and from a computational perspective they support efficient algorithms for automatic construction and query answering. This includes belief updating, finding the most probable explanation for the observed evidence, detecting conflicts in the evidence entered into the network, determining optimal strategies, analyzing for relevance, and performing sensitivity analysis. The book introduces probabilistic graphical models and decision graphs, including Bayesian networks and influence diagrams. The reader is introduced to the two types of frameworks through examples and exercises, which also instruct the reader on how to build these models. The book is a new edition of Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs by Finn V. Jensen. The new edition is structured into two parts. The first part focuses on probabilistic graphical models. Compared with the previous book, the new edition also includes a thorough description of recent extensions to the Bayesian network modeling language, advances in exact and approximate belief updating algorithms, and methods for learning both the structure and the parameters of a Bayesian network. The second part deals with decision graphs, and in addition to the frameworks described in the previous edition, it also introduces Markov decision processes and partially ordered decision problems. The authors also provide a well-founded practical introduction to Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks, decision trees, influence diagrams (and variants hereof), and Markov decision processes. give practical advice on the construction of Bayesian networks, decision trees, and influence diagrams from domain knowledge. give several examples and exercises exploiting computer systems for dealing with Bayesian networks and decision graphs. present a thorough introduction to state-of-the-art solution and analysis algorithms. The book is intended as a textbook, but it can also be used for self-study and as a reference book.

/pdf/bayesian-networks-and-decision-graphs-3d5m8xvghj.pdf

Bayesian networks and decision graphs

Dynamic Bayesian Networks: Representation, Inference and Learning by Kevin Patrick Murphy Doctor of Philosophy in Computer Science University of California, Berkeley Professor Stuart Russell, Chair Modelling sequential data is important in many areas of science and engineering. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Kalman filter models (KFMs) are popular for this because they are simple and flexible. For example, HMMs have been used for speech recognition and bio-sequence analysis, and KFMs have been used for problems ranging from tracking planes and missiles to predicting the economy. However, HMMs and KFMs are limited in their “expressive power”. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) generalize HMMs by allowing the state space to be represented in factored form, instead of as a single discrete random variable. DBNs generalize KFMs by allowing arbitrary probability distributions, not just (unimodal) linear-Gaussian. In this thesis, I will discuss how to represent many different kinds of models as DBNs, how to perform exact and approximate inference in DBNs, and how to learn DBN models from sequential data. In particular, the main novel technical contributions of this thesis are as follows: a way of representing Hierarchical HMMs as DBNs, which enables inference to be done in O(T ) time instead of O(T ), where T is the length of the sequence; an exact smoothing algorithm that takes O(log T ) space instead of O(T ); a simple way of using the junction tree algorithm for online inference in DBNs; new complexity bounds on exact online inference in DBNs; a new deterministic approximate inference algorithm called factored frontier; an analysis of the relationship between the BK algorithm and loopy belief propagation; a way of applying Rao-Blackwellised particle filtering to DBNs in general, and the SLAM (simultaneous localization and mapping) problem in particular; a way of extending the structural EM algorithm to DBNs; and a variety of different applications of DBNs. However, perhaps the main value of the thesis is its catholic presentation of the field of sequential data modelling.

/pdf/dynamic-bayesian-networks-representation-inference-and-yy4fhfxdcj.pdf

Dynamic bayesian networks: representation, inference and learning

Machine learning methods extract value from vast data sets quickly and with modest resources They are established tools in a wide range of industrial applications, including search engines, DNA sequencing, stock market analysis, and robot locomotion, and their use is spreading rapidly People who know the methods have their choice of rewarding jobs This hands-on text opens these opportunities to computer science students with modest mathematical backgrounds It is designed for final-year undergraduates and master's students with limited background in linear algebra and calculus Comprehensive and coherent, it develops everything from basic reasoning to advanced techniques within the framework of graphical models Students learn more than a menu of techniques, they develop analytical and problem-solving skills that equip them for the real world Numerous examples and exercises, both computer based and theoretical, are included in every chapter Resources for students and instructors, including a MATLAB toolbox, are available online

/pdf/bayesian-reasoning-and-machine-learning-276lqrjv6g.pdf

Bayesian Reasoning and Machine Learning

Advantages and challenges of Bayesian networks in environmental modelling

Probabilistic networks, also known as Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, have become one of the most promising technologies in the area of applied artificial intelligence, offering intuitive, efficient, and reliable methods for diagnosis, prediction, decision making, classification, troubleshooting, and data mining under uncertainty Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks Intended primarily for practitioners, this book does not require sophisticated mathematical skills or deep understanding of the underlying theory and methods nor does it discuss alternative technologies for reasoning under uncertainty The theory and methods presented are illustrated through more than 140 examples, and exercises are included for the reader to check his/her level of understanding The techniques and methods presented for knowledge elicitation, model construction and verification, modeling techniques and tricks, learning models from data, and analyses of models have all been developed and refined on the basis of numerous courses that the authors have held for practitioners worldwide

/pdf/bayesian-networks-and-influence-diagrams-a-guide-to-53z6z2wam5.pdf

Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis

https://www.cs.ru.nl/~marinav/Teaching/BDMinAI/InferMadsen99.pdf

LAZY propagation: a junction tree inference algorithm based on lazy evaluation

Bayesian networks and influence diagram , Bayesian networks and influence diagram , کتابخانه دیجیتال جندی شاپور اهواز

Bayesian networks and influence diagrams

Applications of object-oriented Bayesian networks for condition monitoring, root cause analysis and decision support on operation of complex continuous processes

In this paper, we describe the Hugin Tool as an efficient tool for knowledge discovery through construction of Bayesian networks by fusion of data and domain expert knowledge. The Hugin Tool supports structural learning, parameter estimation, and adaptation of parameters in Bayesian networks. The performance of the Hugin Tool is illustrated using real-world Bayesian networks, commonly used examples from the literature, and randomly generated Bayesian networks.

/pdf/the-hugin-tool-for-learning-bayesian-networks-3yi6mw98gq.pdf

Anders L. Madsen

Papers

Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis

LAZY propagation: a junction tree inference algorithm based on lazy evaluation

Bayesian networks and influence diagrams

Applications of object-oriented Bayesian networks for condition monitoring, root cause analysis and decision support on operation of complex continuous processes

The Hugin Tool for Learning Bayesian Networks