Showing papers by "Andrea F. Presbitero published in 2005"

The Debt-Growth Nexus: A Dynamic Panel Data Estimation

Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between external debt and economic growth in poor countries. The adverse effects of external debt on economic performance are due to the crowding out of public investment and to the disincentive effects, because of debt overhang and uncertainty. Notwithstanding a general agreement on theory, empirical evidence is not conclusive and lacks of robustness. This contribution aims to shed more light on the relationship between external debt and economic growth and to draw some policy implication for debt relief. This work highlights the critical role of econometric and methodological issues. The results for a panel of 152 developing countries over the period 1977-2002 support a negative linear relationship between external debt and economic growth, and between debt service and investment. These effects are found to be stronger in the Low-Income Countries than in the overall sample, raising concern about the dramatic effect that debt has on economic performance in the world's poorest countries. In LICs, a debt reduction from a debt-to-exports ratio of 300 to the HIPC threshold of 150 is estimated to add more than one percentage point to per capita GDP growth, and a debt service reduction is found to be more than two times more effective than an equal increase in foreign aid. Eventually, external debt impairs economic growth through the liquidity constraint, the creation of macroeconomic instability, the lower efficiency of investment, and its effect on macroeconomic policies and institutional development.

External Debt Sustainability: Theory and Empirical Evidence

Abstract: This paper is a review of the different approaches on external debt sustainability. The Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) Initiative was launched to assure a permanent exit from debt dependence. However, the IMF-World Bank program is not without faults, in particular for what concerns debt sustainability analysis. The aim of this work is to present the IMF-World Bank approach to debt sustainability, together with the other approaches in the literature. We show that a new and broader framework is emerging to address the main shortcomings of the standard analysis, namely, the effects that large external debts and deficits have on growth and the macroeconomic environment.

The Debt-Growth Nexus: a Dynamic Panel Data Estimation

Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between external debt and economic growth in poor countries. The adverse effects of external debt on economic performance are due to the crowding out of public investment and to the disincentive effects, because of debt overhang and uncertainty. Notwithstanding a general agreement on theory, empirical evidence is not conclusive and lacks of robustness. This contribution aims to shed more light on the relationship between external debt and economic growth and to draw some policy implication for debt relief. This work highlights the critical role of econometric and methodological issues. The results for a panel of 152 developing countries over the period 1977-2002 support a negative linear relationship between external debt and economic growth, and between debt service and investment. These effects are found to be stronger in the Low-Income Countries than in the overall sample, raising concern about the dramatic effect that debt has on economic performance in the world's poorest countries. In LICs, a debt reduction from a debt-to-exports ratio of 300 to the HIPC threshold of 150 is estimated to add more than one percentage point to per capita GDP growth, and a debt service reduction is found to be more than two times more effective than an equal increase in foreign aid. Eventually, external debt impairs economic growth through the liquidity constraint, the creation of macroeconomic instability, the lower efficiency of investment, and its effect on macroeconomic policies and institutional development.

Sustainability and External Debt Reduction in Poor Countries

Abstract: This paper presents a critical approach to the policy debate about external debt sustainability and debt relief in the High Indebted Poor countries (HIPC). The authors look at the different approaches to and models of debt sustainability and claim that a realistic evaluation of this issue requires the use of the fully-fledged government budget constraint, which includes not only the external debt, but also the domestic debt, as well as the balance of payments and the exchange rates. The authors describe the macroeconomic effects of the IMF-World Bank HIPC Initiative, highlighting some of its theoretical limits; the Initiative could not guarantee ex ante external debt sustainability, except by chance. A new operational framework - that takes into account the overall government budget constraint and the feedback of debt relief on economic growth - and a stronger commitment by advanced economies to open up their agricultural markets to support these countries, are required.