计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

Ethnic Groups in Conflict

Survey research finds that mothers suffer a substantial wage penalty, although the causal mechanism producing it remains elusive. The authors employed a laboratory experiment to evaluate the hypothesis that status-based discrimination plays an important role and an audit study of actual employers to assess its real-world implications. In both studies, participants evaluated application materials for a pair of same-gender equally qualified job candidates who differed on parental status. The laboratory experiment found that mothers were penalized on a host of measures, including perceived competence and recommended starting salary. Men were not penalized for, and sometimes benefited from, being a parent. The audit study showed that actual employers discriminate against mothers, but not against fathers.

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Getting a Job : Is There a Motherhood Penalty?

Why Men Rebel was first published in 1970 on the heels of a decade of political violence and protest not only in remote corners of Africa and Southeast Asia, but also at home in the United States. Forty years later, the world is riveted on uprisings in the Middle East, and the United States has been overtaken by a focus on international terrorism and a fascination with citizen movements at home and abroad. Do the arguments of 1970 apply today? Why Men Rebel lends new insight into contemporary challenges of transnational recruitment and organization, multimedia mobilization, and terrorism.

Why Men Rebel

1. Equilibrium party hegemony 2. Structural determinants of mass support 3. Budget cycles under autocracy 4. The politics of vote-buying 5. Judging economic performance in hard times 6. Ideological divisions in the opposition camp 7. How voters choose and mass coordination dilemmas 8. Electoral fraud and the game of electoral transitions 9. Conclusion.

http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/cpworkshop/papers/Magaloni.pdf

Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and its Demise in Mexico

Latin America is often used as a backdrop against which U.S. race relations are compared. Yet research on race in Latin America focuses almost exclusively on countries in the region with a large re...

Stratification by skin color in contemporary Mexico

Ecological theories linking community characteristics to the level of crime have rarely been tested outside the context of the United States and Western Europe. In this study we examine the effects of social cohesion and neighborhood disorder on crime using data from a survey of neighborhoods in Brazil. Wefind that lower-income neighborhoods, including irregular settlements known asfavelas, have higher levels of social cohesion. Contrary to the results of research in U.S. urban areas, we find that greater cohesion among neighborhood residents is not significantly associated with lower levels of crime, and is in fact associated with a higher perceived risk of victimization. By contrast, neighborhood social and physical disorder increases violent victimization, but does not affect residents' perceived risk of being victimized. We argue that the effect of social cohesion on risk perception is explained by the greater spread of information regarding crimes occurring in more cohesive neighborhoods where residents interact more frequently with each other. A large body of empirical research has focused on the effect that social and organizational characteristics of urban communities have on crime rates. In contrast to criminological theories that emphasize individual correlates of criminal offending and victimization, ecological theories on which this research is based focus on the type of places where crime tends to occur. One of the best-known theories linking community characteristics and crime is social disorganization theory. Since the classic formulation by Chicago School theorists Clifford Shaw and Henry McKay (1942), researchers have argued that community characteristics such as poverty, ethnic heterogeneity and residential mobility disrupt the social organization of urban neighborhoods in such a way as to reduce their capacity to exercise social control, and are therefore conducive to higher rates of crime and delinquency. (See also Bursik 1988; Bursik and Grasmick 1993; Kornhauser 1978; Sampson and Groves 1989.) A community's low socioeconomic status (SES) in particular is thought to reduce civic participation and weaken social ties among residents. However, despite the importance early social disorganization theorists gave to poverty as a key factor disrupting communities' social organization, the extent to which the effect of neighborhood poverty on crime is mediated through community-level factors such as a loss of social cohesion among residents remains

Social Cohesion, Criminal Victimization and Perceived Risk of Crime in Brazilian Neighborhoods

Many countries that have recently undergone transitions to democracy have experienced increases in violent crime. Yet sociological theories have generally failed to consider the impact of political factors on crime. The author examines the relation between greater electoral competition and homicide at the subnational level in a country undergoing an uneven transition to democracy. In societies characterized by the presence of patronage networks, social and political changes that undermine the source of unequal exchange between actors at different levels in the social hierarchy result in a temporary loss of social control and an increase in crime. The relation between electoral competition and homicide is tested using electoral results from a sample of 1,800 Mexican municipalities. Greater electoral competition is associated with higher homicide rates across municipalities and over time, even after controlling for standard correlates of violent crime. Consistent with the hypothesis that the increase is due to the disruption of patronage networks, this association is present only in rural areas where patron-client relations are more common.

Political competition and violence in mexico: hierarchical social control in local patronage structures

The rate of Mexico-U.S. migration has declined precipitously in recent years. From 25 migrants per thousand in 2005, the annual international migration rate for Mexican men dropped to 7 per thousand by 2012. If sustained, this low migration rate is likely to have a profound effect on the ethnic and national-origin composition of the U.S. population. This study examines the origins of the migration decline using a nationally representative panel survey of Mexican households. The results support an explanation that attributes a large part of the decline to lower labor demand for Mexican immigrants in the United States. Decreases in labor demand in industrial sectors that employ a large percentage of Mexican-born workers, such as construction, are found to be strongly associated with lower rates of migration for Mexican men. Second, changes in migrant selectivity are also consistent with an economic explanation for the decline in international migration. The largest declines in migration occurred precisely among the demographic groups most affected by the Great Recession: namely, economically active young men with low education. Results from the statistical analysis also show that the reduction in labor demand in key sectors of the U.S. economy resulted in a more positive educational selectivity of young migrants.

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Explaining the Decline in Mexico-U.S. Migration: The Effect of the Great Recession

Findings from previous studies examining the relation between women's employment and the risk of intimate partner violence have been mixed. Some studies find greater violence toward women who are employed, whereas others find the opposite relation or no relation at all. I propose a new framework in which a woman's employment status and her risk of violent victimization are both influenced by the level of control exercised by her partner. Controlling men will actively prevent women from working and are also more likely to physically harm their partners. Using a statistical model in which the effect of omitted characteristics on women's employment and their risk of violence are allowed to be correlated reverses the estimated association between employment and violence. The final results show that employment reduces women's risk of violence. Data for the study are drawn from a sample of over 30,000 Mexican women in intimate relationships. The findings have broad implications given the increase in female labor force participation in many parts of the world. Key Words: domestic violence, employment, intimate partner/marital abuse, Mexico, power. Research on domestic violence has increased dramatically over the past two decades. Studies conducted in the United States have revealed new information about the frequency and severity of violence perpetrated against women by their partners, as well as the types of factors that place women at greater risk (see Holtzworth-Monroe, Bates, Smutzler, & Sandin, 1997; Johnson & Ferraro, 2000; Miller & Knudsen, 1999, for reviews). One unresolved issue in the literature on domestic violence is the effect that women's economic status, and specifically their participation in the labor market, has on their risk of violent victimization. Different theoretical perspectives lead to opposite conclusions regarding the possible effect of women's employment. Marital dependency theorists argue that employed women are less economically dependent on their partners and are therefore less likely to tolerate abuse (Kalmuss & Straus, 1990; Straus, Gelles, & Steinmetz, 1980; Strube & Barbour, 1983). A second theoretical tradition known as resource theory sees violence as a result of power derived from an imbalance in access to resources (Allen & Straus, 1980; Goode, 1971). Male partners who cannot derive power from their employment status or greater economic resources will use violence to assert their dominance in the relationship. A feminist perspective similarly predicts a higher risk of violence against employed women. Feminist scholars place greater importance on the symbolic value attached to men's greater earnings potential. They argue that men's larger economic contribution to the household is tied to the construction of their masculinity. Men in intimate relations will therefore perceive their female partners' employment as a threat to which they might respond violently (Dobash & Dobash, 1979; Yllo, 1993; Yllo & Straus, 1990). Empirical findings on the relation between women's employment status and the risk of violence are similarly divided. Some studies find greater violence toward women who are employed (DeMaris, Benson, Fox, Hill, & Van Wyk, 2003; Hornung, McCullough, & Sugimoto, 1981), whereas others find the opposite relation (Kalmuss & Straus, 1990; Straus et al., 1980), or no relation at all (Fox, Benson, DeMaris, & Van Wyk, 2002; Kaukinen, 2004). In this article, I suggest that the different estimates of the effect of women's employment may be a result of the way in which statistical models used to test the association between women's employment and their risk of violence have been specified. As Gibson-Davis, Magnuson, Gennetian, and Duncan (2005) have recently suggested, unmeasured characteristics of women are likely to affect both their likelihood of employment and their risk of violence leading to biased estimates when women's employment is used as a predictor of violence in standard regression analysis. …

Andrés Villarreal

Papers

Stratification by skin color in contemporary Mexico

Social Cohesion, Criminal Victimization and Perceived Risk of Crime in Brazilian Neighborhoods

Political competition and violence in mexico: hierarchical social control in local patronage structures

Explaining the Decline in Mexico-U.S. Migration: The Effect of the Great Recession

Women’s Employment Status, Coercive Control, and Intimate Partner Violence in Mexico