Showing papers by "Andrew A. Lacis published in 1991"

A description of the correlated k distribution method for modeling nongray gaseous absorption, thermal emission, and multiple scattering in vertically inhomogeneous atmospheres

Abstract: A radiative transfer method for treating nongray gaseous absorption and thermal emission in vertically inhomogeneous multiple scattering atmospheres is described. Probability density distributions of absorption coefficient strength are derived from line-by-line calculations to construct line-by-line and band model based k distributions. The monotonic ordering of absorption coefficient strengths in these k distributions implicitly preserves the monochromatic structure of the atmosphere at different pressure levels, thus simulating monochromatic spectral integration at a fraction of the line-by-line computing cost. The k distribution approach also permits accurate modeling of overlapping absorption by different atmospheric gases and accurate treatment of nongray absorption in multiple scattering media. It is shown that the correlated k distribution method is capable of achieving numerical accuracy to within 1 percent of cooling rates obtained with line-by-line calculations throughout the troposphere and most of the stratosphere.

Interpretation of snow-climate feedback as produced by 17 general circulation models.

Abstract: Snow feedback is expected to amplify global warming caused by increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. The conventional explanation is that a warmer Earth will have less snow cover, resulting in a darker planet that absorbs more solar radiation. An intercomparison of 17 general circulation models, for which perturbations of sea surface temperature were used as a surrogate climate change, suggests that this explanation is overly simplistic. The results instead indicate that additional amplification or moderation may be caused both by cloud interactions and longwave radiation. One measure of this net effect of snow feedback was found to differ markedly among the 17 climate models, ranging from weak negative feedback in some models to strong positive feedback in others.

Simulations of the effect of a warmer climate on atmospheric humidity

Abstract: Increases in the concentration of water vapor constitute the single largest positive feedback in models of global climate warming caused by greenhouse gases. It has been suggested that sinking air in the regions surrounding deep cumulus clouds will dry the upper troposphere and eliminate or reverse the direction of water vapor feedback. This hypothesis has been tested by performing an idealized simulation of climate change with two different versions of a climate model which both incorporate drying due to subsidence of clear air but differ in their parameterization of moist convection and stratiform clouds. Despite increased drying of the upper troposphere by cumulus clouds, upper-level humidity increases in the warmer climate because of enhanced upward moisture transport by the general circulation and increased accumulation of water vapor and ice at cumulus cloud tops.

Regional Greenhouse Climate Effects

Abstract: We discuss the impact of an increasing greenhouse effect on three aspects of regional climate: droughts, storms and temperature. A continuation of current growth rates of greenhouse gases causes an increase in the frequency and severity of droughts in our climate model simulations, with the greatest impacts in broad regions of the subtropics and middle latitudes. But the greenhouse effect enhances both ends of the hydrologic cycle in the model, that is, there is an increased frequency of extreme wet situations, as well as increased drought. Model results are shown to imply that increased greenhouse warming will lead to more intense thunderstorms, that is, deeper thunderstorms with greater rainfall. Emanuel has shown that the model results also imply that the greenhouse warming leads to more destructive tropical cyclones. We present updated records of observed temperatures and show that the observations and model results, averaged over the globe and over the United States, are generally consistent. The impacts of simulated climate changes on droughts, storms and temperature provide no evidence that there will be regional “winners” if greenhouse gases continue to increase rapidly.

Infrared cooling rate calculations in operational general circulation models: Comparisons with benchmark computations

Abstract: The performance of several parameterized models is described with respect to numerical prediction and climate research at GFDL, NCAR, and GISS. The radiation codes of the models were compared to benchmark calculations and other codes for the intercomparison of radiation codes in climate models (ICRCCM). Cooling rates and fluxes calculated from the models are examined in terms of their application to established general circulation models (GCMs) from the three research institutions. The newest radiation parameterization techniques show the most significant agreement with the benchmark line-by-line (LBL) results. The LBL cooling rates correspond to cooling rate profiles from the models, but the parameterization of the water vapor continuum demonstrates uncertain results. These uncertainties affect the understanding of some lower tropospheric cooling, and therefore more accurate parameterization of the water vapor continuum, as well as the weaker absorption bands of CO2 and O3 is recommended.