Showing papers by "Andy Purvis published in 2008"

The predictability of extinction: biological and external correlates of decline in mammals.

Abstract: Extinction risk varies among species, and comparative analyses can help clarify the causes of this variation. Here we present a phylogenetic comparative analysis of species-level extinction risk across nearly the whole of the class Mammalia. Our aims were to examine systematically the degree to which general predictors of extinction risk can be identified, and to investigate the relative importance of different types of predictors (life history, ecological, human impact and environmental) in determining extinction risk. A single global model explained 27.3% of variation in mammal extinction risk, but explanatory power was lower for region-specific models (median R 2 Z0.248) and usually higher for taxon-specific models (median R 2 Z0.383). Geographical range size, human population density and latitude were the most consistently significant predictors of extinction risk, but otherwise there was little evidence for general, prescriptive indicators of high extinction risk across mammals. Our results therefore support the view that comparative models of relatively narrow taxonomic scope are likely to be the most precise.

The island rule: made to be broken?

Abstract: The island rule is a hypothesis whereby small mammals evolve larger size on islands while large insular mammals dwarf. The rule is believed to emanate from small mammals growing larger to control more resources and enhance metabolic efficiency, while large mammals evolve smaller size to reduce resource requirements and increase reproductive output. We show that there is no evidence for the existence of the island rule when phylogenetic comparative methods are applied to a large, high-quality dataset. Rather, there are just a few clade-specific patterns: carnivores; heteromyid rodents; and artiodactyls typically evolve smaller size on islands whereas murid rodents usually grow larger. The island rule is probably an artefact of comparing distantly related groups showing clade-specific responses to insularity. Instead of a rule, size evolution on islands is likely to be governed by the biotic and abiotic characteristics of different islands, the biology of the species in question and contingency.

Phylogenetic Approaches to the Study of Extinction

Abstract: Species extinction is both a key process throughout the history of life and a pressing concern in the conservation of present-day biodiversity. These two facets have largely been studied by separate communities using different approaches. This article illustrates with examples some of the ways that considering the evolutionary relationships among species—phylogenies— has helped the study of both past and present species extinction. The focus is on three topics: extinction rates and severities, phylogenetic nonrandomness of extinction, and the testing of hypotheses relating extinction-proneness to attributes of organisms or species. Phylogenetic and taxic approaches to extinction have not fully fused, largely because of the difficulties of relating discrete taxa to the underlying continuity of phylogeny. Phylogeny must be considered in comparative tests of hypotheses about extinction, but care must be taken to avoid overcorrecting for phylogenetic nonindependence among taxa.

Preserving accuracy in GenBank

Abstract: GenBank, the public repository for nucleotide and protein sequences, is a critical resource for molecular biology, evolutionary biology, and ecology. While some attention has been drawn to sequence errors ([1][1]), common annotation errors also reduce the value of this database. In fact, for

Predicting susceptibility to future declines in the world's frogs

Abstract: The 2004 Global Amphibian Assessment demonstrated that almost 400 anuran species have recently moved closer to extinction due to a host of threat mechanisms. Of particular concern is the role of the fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), for which more traditional conservation management is not effective. Determining which biological and environmental factors affect a species' susceptibility to these mechanisms would greatly aid conservation prioritisation and planning. We performed phylogenetic comparative analyses to determine which biological and environmental factors predict species' susceptibility to rapid declines, both generally and in the context of Bd. Our results extend the findings of previous finer scale studies: we find that high-altitude, restricted-range, aquatic species with low fecundity are most likely to suffer Bd-related declines. We use our findings to identify those species most at risk of Bd-related declines and global extinction in the future, and identify areas where many species are predicted to be susceptible. Identifying susceptible species in advance of their decline is particularly important in setting priorities when, as here, declines are hard to arrest once underway.

Macroecology and extinction risk correlates of frogs

Abstract: Aim Our aim was to test whether extinction risk of frog species could be predicted from their body size, fecundity or geographical range size. Because small geographical range size is a correlate of extinction risk in many taxa, we also tested hypotheses about correlates of range size in frogs. Location Global. Methods Using a large comparative data set (n = 527 species) compiled from the literature, we performed bivariate and multiple regressions through the origin of independent contrasts to test proposed macroecological patterns and correlates of extinction risk in frogs. We also created minimum adequate models to predict snout–vent length, clutch size, geographical range size and IUCN Red List status in frogs. Parallel non-phylogenetic analyses were also conducted. We verified the results of the phylogenetic analyses using gridded data accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Results The most threatened frog species tend to have small geographical ranges, although the relationship between range and extinction risk is not linear. In addition, tropical frogs with small clutches have the smallest ranges. Clutch size was strongly positively correlated with geographical range size (r2 = 0.22) and body size (r2 = 0.28). Main conclusions Our results suggest that body size and fecundity only affect extinction risk indirectly through their effect on geographical range size. Thus, although large frogs with small clutches tend to be endangered, there is no comparative evidence that this relationship is direct. If correct, this inference has consequences for conservation strategy: it would be inefficient to allocate conservation resources on the basis of low fecundity or large body size; instead it would be better to protect areas that contain many frog species with small geographical ranges.

Preserving accuracy in GenBank

Abstract: GenBank, the public repository for nucleotide and protein sequences, is a critical resource for molecular biology, evolutionary biology, and ecology. While some attention has been drawn to sequence errors ([1][1]), common annotation errors also reduce the value of this database. In fact, for

Evolutionary biology and practical conservation: bridging a widening gap

Abstract: At the ecosystem, species and population level, available measures suggest that average rates of loss of populations and habitats are now around 1% per year and seem likely to increase in the future. Habitat conversion continues in most parts of the world, especially in areas of high species richness, and novel threats, especially climate change, will pose new challenges. With this pressure, maintaining evolutionary processes in natural populations will be critical to longer term persistence, and will often require specific planning relevant to the context. However, in many areas of policy and practice, urgent actions tend to focus on pattern-based analyses and considerations of evolutionary and ecological processes are neglected. At a variety of levels, from setting goals to implementing conservation management at the site or species level, there are simple adjustments that can be made. Improved methods for integrating the work of scientists and policymakers is recommended, from the beginning to end of the planning process.

Phylogenetic trees and the future of mammalian biodiversity

Abstract: © 2009 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Phylogenies describe the origins and history of species. However, they can also help to predict species' fates and so can be useful tools for managing the future of biodiversity. This chapter starts by sketching how phylogenetic, geographic, and trait information can be combined to elucidate present mammalian diversity patterns and how they arose. Recent diversification rates and standing diversity show different geographic patterns, indicating that cradles of diversity have moved over time. Patterns in extinction risk reflect both biological differences among mammalian lineages and differences in threat intensity among regions. Phylogenetic comparative analyses indicate that for small-bodied mammals, extinction risk is governed mostly by where the species live and the intensity of the threats, whereas for large-bodied mammals, ecological differences also play an important role. This modeling approach identifies species whose intrinsic biology renders them particularly vulnerable to increased human pressure. We outline how the approach might be extended to consider future trends in anthropogenic drivers, to identify likely future battlegrounds of mammalian conservation, and the likely casualties. This framework could help to highlight consequences of choosing among different future climatic and socioeconomic scenarios. We end by discussing priority-setting, showing how alternative currencies for diversity can suggest very different priorities. We argue that aiming to maximize long-term evolutionary responses is inappropriate, that conservation planning needs to consider costs as well as benefits, and that proactive conservation of largely intact systems should be part of a balanced strategy.

Phylogenetic trees and the future of mammalian biodiversity

Abstract: Phylogenies describe the origins and history of species. However, they can also help to predict species' fates and so can be useful tools for managing the future of biodiversity. This article starts by sketching how phylogenetic, geographic, and trait information can be combined to elucidate present mammalian diversity patterns and how they arose. Recent diversification rates and standing diversity show different geographic patterns, indicating that cradles of diversity have moved over time. Patterns in extinction risk reflect both biological differences among mammalian lineages and differences in threat intensity among regions. Phylogenetic comparative analyses indicate that for small-bodied mammals, extinction risk is governed mostly by where the species live and the intensity of the threats, whereas for large-bodied mammals, ecological differences also play an important role. This modeling approach identifies species whose intrinsic biology renders them particularly vulnerable to increased human pressure. We outline how the approach might be extended to consider future trends in anthropogenic drivers, to identify likely future battlegrounds of mammalian conservation, and the likely casualties. This framework could help to highlight consequences of choosing among different future climatic and socioeconomic scenarios. We end by discussing priority-setting, showing how alternative currencies for diversity can suggest very different priorities. We argue that aiming to maximize long-term evolutionary responses is inappropriate, that conservation planning needs to consider costs as well as benefits, and that proactive conservation of largely intact systems should be part of a balanced strategy.

Erratum: The delayed rise of present-day mammals

Abstract: Nature 446, 507–512 (2007) We have discovered a bug in the Perl script relDate v.2.2 that was used in part to date the nodes in the species-level mammalian supertree presented and analysed in our Article. The bug affected all but 80 of the 2,109 published dates, generally causing them to be slightlyinflated, with the effect being stronger in more recent nodes.

A common tendency for phylogenetic overdispersion in mammalian assemblages.

Abstract: Competition has long been proposed as an important force in structuring mammalian communities. Although early work recognized that competition has a phylogenetic dimension, only with recent increases in the availability of phylogenies have true phylogenetic investigations of mammalian community structure become possible. We test whether the phylogenetic structure of 142 assemblages from three mammalian clades (New World monkeys, North American ground squirrels and Australasian possums) shows the imprint of competition. The full set of assemblages display a highly significant tendency for members to be more distantly related than expected by chance (phylogenetic overdispersion). The overdispersion is also significant within two of the clades (monkeys and squirrels) separately. This is the first demonstration of widespread overdispersion in mammal assemblages and implies an important role for either competition between close relatives where traits are conserved, habitat filtering where distant relatives share convergent traits, or both.

Global patterns in the phylogenetic structure of island mammal assemblages.

Abstract: Assemblage-level phylogenies carry the signature of ecological and evolutionary processes, which may provide useful information on modes of assemblage formation. We present a global-scale analysis of the emergent phylogenetic properties of mammal assemblages on islands, in which we compared the structure of 595 island assemblages with null models constructed under four alternative definitions of regional source pools. Although most assemblages had a structure indistinguishable from random samples, for some mammal taxa, up to 40% of island assemblages were phylogenetically overdispersed. This suggests that in at least some cases, the processes that shape island faunas are not independent of phylogeny. Furthermore, measures of phylogenetic structure were associated in some cases with island geographical features (size, maximum elevation and habitat diversity). Our results suggest that part of the signal of assemblage formation processes is detectable in the phylogenies of contemporary island mammal faunas, though much is obscured by the complexity of these processes.

Increasing morphological complexity in multiple parallel lineages of the Crustacea

Abstract: The prospect of finding macroevolutionary trends and rules in the history of life is tremendously appealing, but very few pervasive trends have been found. Here, we demonstrate a parallel increase in the morphological complexity of most of the deep lineages within a major clade. We focus on the Crustacea, measuring the morphological differentiation of limbs. First, we show a clear trend of increasing complexity among 66 free-living, ordinal-level taxa from the Phanerozoic fossil record. We next demonstrate that this trend is pervasive, occurring in 10 or 11 of 12 matched-pair comparisons (across five morphological diversity indices) between extinct Paleozoic and related Recent taxa. This clearly differentiates the pattern from the effects of lineage sorting. Furthermore, newly appearing taxa tend to have had more types of limbs and a higher degree of limb differentiation than the contemporaneous average, whereas those going extinct showed higher-than-average limb redundancy. Patterns of contemporary species diversity partially reflect the paleontological trend. These results provide a rare demonstration of a large-scale and probably driven trend occurring across multiple independent lineages and influencing both the form and number of species through deep time and in the present day.