2 1 The innovative transport systems and the CityMobil project 10 1.1 The research questions 10 2 The state of art in the field of automatic transport systems 12 2.1 Case studies and demand studies for innovative transport systems 12 3 The design and implementation of surveys 14 3.1 Definition of experimental design 14 3.2 Questionnaire design and delivery 16 3.3 First analyses on the collected sample 18 4 Calibration of Logit Multionomial demand models 21 4.1 Methodology 21 4.2 Calibration of the “full” model. 22 4.3 Calibration of the “final” model 24 4.4 The demand analysis through the final Multinomial Logit model 25 5 The analysis of interaction between the demand and socioeconomic attributes 31 5.1 Methodology 31 5.2 Application of Mixed Logit models to the demand 31 5.3 Analysis of the interactions between demand and socioeconomic attributes through Mixed Logit models 32 5.4 Mixed Logit model and interaction between age and the demand for the CTS 38 5.5 Demand analysis with Mixed Logit model 39 6 Final analyses and conclusions 45 6.1 Comparison between the results of the analyses 45 6.2 Conclusions 48 6.3 Answers to the research questions and future developments 52

The European commission

This paper reviews the concept of adaptation of human communities to global changes, especially climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity and vulnerability. It focuses on scholarship that contributes to practical implementation of adaptations at the community scale. In numerous social science fields, adaptations are considered as responses to risks associated with the interaction of environmental hazards and human vulnerability or adaptive capacity. In the climate change field, adaptation analyses have been undertaken for several distinct purposes. Impact assessments assume adaptations to estimate damages to longer term climate scenarios with and without adjustments. Evaluations of specified adaptation options aim to identify preferred measures. Vulnerability indices seek to provide relative vulnerability scores for countries, regions or communities. The main purpose of participatory vulnerability assessments is to identify adaptation strategies that are feasible and practical in communities. The distinctive features of adaptation analyses with this purpose are outlined, and common elements of this approach are described. Practical adaptation initiatives tend to focus on risks that are already problematic, climate is considered together with other environmental and social stresses, and adaptations are mostly integrated or mainstreamed into other resource management, disaster preparedness and sustainable development programs. r 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability

Global environmental change and sustainability science increasingly recognize the need to address the consequences of changes taking place in the structure and function of the biosphere. These changes raise questions such as: Who and what are vulnerable to the multiple environmental changes underway, and where? Research demonstrates that vulnerability is registered not by exposure to hazards (perturbations and stresses) alone but also resides in the sensitivity and resilience of the system experiencing such hazards. This recognition requires revisions and enlargements in the basic design of vulnerability assessments, including the capacity to treat coupled human–environment systems and those linkages within and without the systems that affect their vulnerability. A vulnerability framework for the assessment of coupled human–environment systems is presented.

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A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science

NUDGE: IMPROVING DECISIONS ABOUT HEALTH, WEALTH, AND HAPPINESS by Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein Penguin Books, 2009, 312 pp, ISBN 978-0-14-311526-7This book is best described formally as a general explanation of and advocacy for libertarian paternalism, a term coined by the authors in earlier publications. Informally, it is about how leaders, systems, organizations, and governments can nudge people to do the things the nudgers want and need done for the betterment of the nudgees, or of society. It is paternalism in the sense that "it is legitimate for choice architects to try to influence people's behavior in order to make their lives longer, healthier, and better", (p. 5) It is libertarian in that "people should be free to do what they like - and to opt out of undesirable arrangements if they want to do so", (p. 5) The built-in possibility of opting out or making a different choice preserves freedom of choice even though people's behavior has been influenced by the nature of the presentation of the information or by the structure of the decisionmaking system. I had never heard of libertarian paternalism before reading this book, and I now find it fascinating.Written for a general audience, this book contains mostly social and behavioral science theory and models, but there is considerable discussion of structure and process that has roots in mathematical and quantitative modeling. One of the main applications of this social system is economic choice in investing, selecting and purchasing products and services, systems of taxes, banking (mortgages, borrowing, savings), and retirement systems. Other quantitative social choice systems discussed include environmental effects, health care plans, gambling, and organ donations. Softer issues that are also subject to a nudge-based approach are marriage, education, eating, drinking, smoking, influence, spread of information, and politics. There is something in this book for everyone.The basis for this libertarian paternalism concept is in the social theory called "science of choice", the study of the design and implementation of influence systems on various kinds of people. The terms Econs and Humans, are used to refer to people with either considerable or little rational decision-making talent, respectively. The various libertarian paternalism concepts and systems presented are tested and compared in light of these two types of people. Two foundational issues that this book has in common with another book, Network of Echoes: Imitation, Innovation and Invisible Leaders, that was also reviewed for this issue of the Journal are that 1 ) there are two modes of thinking (or components of the brain) - an automatic (intuitive) process and a reflective (rational) process and 2) the need for conformity and the desire for imitation are powerful forces in human behavior. …

Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness

The talk with present the key results of the IPCC Working Group III 5th assessment report. Concluding four years of intense scientific collaboration by hundreds of authors from around the world, the report responds to the request of the world's governments for a comprehensive, objective and policy neutral assessment of the current scientific knowledge on mitigating climate change. The report has been extensively reviewed by experts and governments to ensure quality and comprehensiveness.

Climate change 2014 - Mitigation of climate change

On 22 October 2012 seven members of the Italian Major Risk Commission were found guilty of 29 persons manslaughter and of 4 injuries in relation with the earthquake that hit L'Aquila, a town in Central Italy, in the year 2009. The members were verdict to six years in prison for violating their obligations to adequately analyse seismic risk and to provide clear, correct and complete information, which might have saved many people's life. The case has not been concluded jet and so far the debate focused on the scientific, legal and communicative aspects of the verdict, while the institutional ones, including the co-production of scientific advice and decision making, received less attention. We argue that the presence of deep epistemic uncertainty coupled with responsibility overlaps of scientists-turned-decision-makers, is fundamental to understanding the event and the legal aftermath. Another relevant institutional aspect is the concern of the national and local authorities that the population would over-react to anything other than a reassuring message. We discuss the consequences of this framing of the emergency management problem in terms of public control rather than public safety. As risk science continues to grapple with the challenge of communicating uncertain information to decision-makers and citizens, it becomes more important to understand the co-production processes that shape how scientific advice is used for decisions on the ground.

The Co-Production of Scientific Advice and Decision Making Under Uncertainty:Lessons from the 2009 Lâ€™Aquila earthquake, Italy

Dealing with inconsistent weather warnings: effects on warning quality and intended actions

Smallholder farmers often employ inputs and practices they are traditionally well acquainted with to adapt to climate change. These types of adjustments, henceforth referred to as non-technological, are not only more feasible in the resource-constrained situation of smallholder farmers but also have a potential to significantly reduce the negative impact of climate change. However, a systematic study of these types of adaptations isolating them from technological ones is still lacking. While technological adaptations can benefit from the extensive literature on the adoption of agricultural technologies, non-technological adaptations still need further examination as one distinct group of adjustments. We hypothesize that this group of adaptations strongly depend on farmers’ accumulated experience rather than financial resources and level of schooling. To test this hypothesis, we compared the determinants of changing planting date and changing crop type as non-technological adaptations, with the determinants of two technological adaptations: fertilizer use and rainwater harvesting. The investigation relied on a survey of 270 farm households in Semien Shewa Zone of Ethiopia. We used Wilcoxon Signed rank test and verified the importance of climate change in inducing the adjustments. A Multivariate probit model was then used to identify their determinants. Our hypothesis is supported by a positive relationship between farm experience and changing planting date, while fertilizer and rainwater harvesting showed a positive correlation with access to credit and level of schooling respectively. Our findings suggest that targeting non-technological farm-level adaptations through interventions focused on experience sharing can alone play an important role in reducing the impact of climate change in agriculture.

Factors affecting smallholder farmers’ adaptation to climate change through non-technological adjustments

Assessments of climate change face the task of making information about uncertainty accessible and useful to decisionmakers. The literature in behavior economics provides many examples of how people make decisions under conditions of uncertainty relying on inappropriate heuristics, leading to inconsistent and counterproductive choices. Modern risk communication practices recommend a number of methods to overcome these hurdles, which have been recommended for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports. This paper evaluates the success of the most recent IPCC approach to uncertainty communication, based on a controlled survey of climate change experts. Evaluating the results from the survey, and from a similar survey recently conducted among university students, the paper suggests that the most recent IPCC approach leaves open the possibility for biased and inconsistent responses to the information. The paper concludes by suggesting ways to improve the approach for future IPCC assessment reports. To cite this article: A. Patt, S. Dessai, C. R.

External Geophysics, Climate and Environment Communicating uncertainty: lessons learned and suggestions for climate change assessment

The core objectives of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations to non-dangerous levels quickly enough to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally, while not threatening food production or sustainable economic development. The approach embedded in the Kyoto Protocol, reflecting the concept of common but differentiated responsibilities, has been to start by setting binding emissions targets for industrialized countries, while using carbon markets to mobilize international finance for mitigation efforts in developing countries. The critical challenges for negotiators since then, however, have been in agreeing when the time is right to move towards binding emissions targets for developing countries and what level of financial assistance from developed countries is appropriate and politically feasible, given the well-founded perception that such targets, if sufficiently stringent to limit climate change and unaccompanied by strong financial assistance, could in fact hinder many countries. immediate economic development.

Anthony Patt

Papers

The Co-Production of Scientific Advice and Decision Making Under Uncertainty:Lessons from the 2009 Lâ€™Aquila earthquake, Italy

Dealing with inconsistent weather warnings: effects on warning quality and intended actions

Factors affecting smallholder farmers’ adaptation to climate change through non-technological adjustments

External Geophysics, Climate and Environment Communicating uncertainty: lessons learned and suggestions for climate change assessment

An alternative to a global climate deal may be unfolding before our eyes