2 1 The innovative transport systems and the CityMobil project 10 1.1 The research questions 10 2 The state of art in the field of automatic transport systems 12 2.1 Case studies and demand studies for innovative transport systems 12 3 The design and implementation of surveys 14 3.1 Definition of experimental design 14 3.2 Questionnaire design and delivery 16 3.3 First analyses on the collected sample 18 4 Calibration of Logit Multionomial demand models 21 4.1 Methodology 21 4.2 Calibration of the “full” model. 22 4.3 Calibration of the “final” model 24 4.4 The demand analysis through the final Multinomial Logit model 25 5 The analysis of interaction between the demand and socioeconomic attributes 31 5.1 Methodology 31 5.2 Application of Mixed Logit models to the demand 31 5.3 Analysis of the interactions between demand and socioeconomic attributes through Mixed Logit models 32 5.4 Mixed Logit model and interaction between age and the demand for the CTS 38 5.5 Demand analysis with Mixed Logit model 39 6 Final analyses and conclusions 45 6.1 Comparison between the results of the analyses 45 6.2 Conclusions 48 6.3 Answers to the research questions and future developments 52

The European commission

This paper reviews the concept of adaptation of human communities to global changes, especially climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity and vulnerability. It focuses on scholarship that contributes to practical implementation of adaptations at the community scale. In numerous social science fields, adaptations are considered as responses to risks associated with the interaction of environmental hazards and human vulnerability or adaptive capacity. In the climate change field, adaptation analyses have been undertaken for several distinct purposes. Impact assessments assume adaptations to estimate damages to longer term climate scenarios with and without adjustments. Evaluations of specified adaptation options aim to identify preferred measures. Vulnerability indices seek to provide relative vulnerability scores for countries, regions or communities. The main purpose of participatory vulnerability assessments is to identify adaptation strategies that are feasible and practical in communities. The distinctive features of adaptation analyses with this purpose are outlined, and common elements of this approach are described. Practical adaptation initiatives tend to focus on risks that are already problematic, climate is considered together with other environmental and social stresses, and adaptations are mostly integrated or mainstreamed into other resource management, disaster preparedness and sustainable development programs. r 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability

Global environmental change and sustainability science increasingly recognize the need to address the consequences of changes taking place in the structure and function of the biosphere. These changes raise questions such as: Who and what are vulnerable to the multiple environmental changes underway, and where? Research demonstrates that vulnerability is registered not by exposure to hazards (perturbations and stresses) alone but also resides in the sensitivity and resilience of the system experiencing such hazards. This recognition requires revisions and enlargements in the basic design of vulnerability assessments, including the capacity to treat coupled human–environment systems and those linkages within and without the systems that affect their vulnerability. A vulnerability framework for the assessment of coupled human–environment systems is presented.

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A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science

NUDGE: IMPROVING DECISIONS ABOUT HEALTH, WEALTH, AND HAPPINESS by Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein Penguin Books, 2009, 312 pp, ISBN 978-0-14-311526-7This book is best described formally as a general explanation of and advocacy for libertarian paternalism, a term coined by the authors in earlier publications. Informally, it is about how leaders, systems, organizations, and governments can nudge people to do the things the nudgers want and need done for the betterment of the nudgees, or of society. It is paternalism in the sense that "it is legitimate for choice architects to try to influence people's behavior in order to make their lives longer, healthier, and better", (p. 5) It is libertarian in that "people should be free to do what they like - and to opt out of undesirable arrangements if they want to do so", (p. 5) The built-in possibility of opting out or making a different choice preserves freedom of choice even though people's behavior has been influenced by the nature of the presentation of the information or by the structure of the decisionmaking system. I had never heard of libertarian paternalism before reading this book, and I now find it fascinating.Written for a general audience, this book contains mostly social and behavioral science theory and models, but there is considerable discussion of structure and process that has roots in mathematical and quantitative modeling. One of the main applications of this social system is economic choice in investing, selecting and purchasing products and services, systems of taxes, banking (mortgages, borrowing, savings), and retirement systems. Other quantitative social choice systems discussed include environmental effects, health care plans, gambling, and organ donations. Softer issues that are also subject to a nudge-based approach are marriage, education, eating, drinking, smoking, influence, spread of information, and politics. There is something in this book for everyone.The basis for this libertarian paternalism concept is in the social theory called "science of choice", the study of the design and implementation of influence systems on various kinds of people. The terms Econs and Humans, are used to refer to people with either considerable or little rational decision-making talent, respectively. The various libertarian paternalism concepts and systems presented are tested and compared in light of these two types of people. Two foundational issues that this book has in common with another book, Network of Echoes: Imitation, Innovation and Invisible Leaders, that was also reviewed for this issue of the Journal are that 1 ) there are two modes of thinking (or components of the brain) - an automatic (intuitive) process and a reflective (rational) process and 2) the need for conformity and the desire for imitation are powerful forces in human behavior. …

Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness

The talk with present the key results of the IPCC Working Group III 5th assessment report. Concluding four years of intense scientific collaboration by hundreds of authors from around the world, the report responds to the request of the world's governments for a comprehensive, objective and policy neutral assessment of the current scientific knowledge on mitigating climate change. The report has been extensively reviewed by experts and governments to ensure quality and comprehensiveness.

Climate change 2014 - Mitigation of climate change

Solar power in the North African region has the potential to provide electricity for local energy needs and export to Europe. Nevertheless, despite the technical feasibility of solar energy projects, stakeholders still perceive projects in the region as risky because of existing governance issues. Certain areas of solar projects, such as construction, operation and management, are the most prone to governance risks, including lack of transparency and accountability, perceived as barriers for deployment of the projects. It is likely that large-scale foreign direct investment into solar energy will not eliminate existing risks, but might even increase them. Furthermore, the recent political changes in the region have addressed some governance risks but not all of them, especially bureaucratic corruption. Stakeholders recommend a broad set of measures to facilitate development of solar projects in the region, ranging from auditing of individual projects to simplification and unification of bureaucratic procedures.

Governance Barriers to Renewable Energy in North Africa

Climate Information, Equity and Vulnerability Reduction

. Private risk reduction behaviours can significantly reduce the
negative impacts of flooding and flash floods. Over the past decades,
researchers have used various socio-cognitive models or threat and coping
mechanisms to explain individual protective behaviours. However, these
models ignore the fact that people are not equally ready to act upon a danger, and
they (the models) give limited insights into the effectiveness of communication
strategies to foster risk reduction behaviours. Therefore, we explored the
current state of homeowners' readiness to undertake risk reduction
behaviours in flood risk areas by applying a dynamic protection motivation
framework. We conducted a survey in an Italian municipality that experienced
severe flash flooding in September 2018. The results show that people are
motivated by different factors in prompting risk reduction behaviour based
on their chosen types of protective measures. For example, people that undertook
structural or avoidance measures are more likely to be motivated to protect
themselves by increased perceptions of vulnerability and response efficacy
and are less worried about expected flood losses compared to people that
undertook only basic emergency measures. In this paper, we argue how these
new insights contribute to targeting flood risk communication strategies to
groups of individuals characterized by different readiness stages and
motivations to protect themselves.

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A flood-risk-oriented, dynamic protection motivation framework to explain risk reduction behaviours

The Pacific Ocean covers almost half the Earth. Its eastwest axis is longest near the Equator, and it is here that the related processes of El Niqo and the Southern Oscillation, together known as ENSO, take place. El Niqo refers to the periodic warming of the surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific, while the Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation in air pressure differential between Darwin, Australia and Tahiti. What determines the periodicity of ENSO is the time it takes for pressure waves to cross from Indonesia to South America, and then bounce back again. Because the ocean is so wide, that process takes several years. Because there is so much water there, and water holds a lot of energy, ENSO phases can alter weather patterns around the world. 

Inter-annual climate variability of this sort has always existed. In terms of human experience, it is likely that people have and will continue to experience climate change not as a gradual rise in temperature, but rather as a shift in the frequency and intensity of particular weather events. Climatic risks and climate variability are a substantial drain on the economies of least developed countries, and indeed the effects of climate variability on society are significantly greater than the effects of climate change probably will be, at least for the next 30 years.

Learning to crawl: How to use seasonal climate forecasts to build adaptive capacity

In spring 2010, European and international climate experts at PwC, the European Climate Forum, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the International Institute for Applied System Analysis published 100% Renewable Electricity - A roadmap to 2050 for Europe and North Africa. The report examined the potential for powering Europe and North Africa with renewable electricity exclusively by 2050. It set out a series of financial, market, infrastructure and government policy steps that would need to occur if such a "what if" vision was to be achieved. 

Now, a year on, this latest report provides a complementary analysis to the original roadmap. PwC, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the International Institute for Applied System Analysis, look at whether the vision of 100% renewable electricity has moved closer or further away as a result of current and recent developments over the last 12 months. The report, intended to support the wider debate in this area, examines five areas that are most critical to achieving progress and, through the lens of these five areas, looks at the impact of recent and current events.

Anthony Patt

Papers

Governance Barriers to Renewable Energy in North Africa

Climate Information, Equity and Vulnerability Reduction

A flood-risk-oriented, dynamic protection motivation framework to explain risk reduction behaviours

Learning to crawl: How to use seasonal climate forecasts to build adaptive capacity

Moving towards 100% renewable electricity in Europe & North Africa by 2050