计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

World Investment Report

Many countries compete against one another in attracting foreign investors by offering ever more generous incentive packages and justifying their actions with the productivity gains that are expected to accrue to domestic producers from knowledge externalities generated by foreign affiliates. Despite this being hugely important to public policy choices, there is little conclusive evidence indicating that domestic firms benefit from foreign presence in their sector. It is possible, though, that researchers have been looking for foreign direct investment (FDI) spillovers in the wrong place. Multinationals have an incentive to prevent information leakage that would enhance the performance of their local competitors in the same industry but at the same time may want to transfer knowledge to their local suppliers in other sectors. Spillovers from FDI may be, therefore, more likely to take place through backward linkages - that is, contacts between domestic suppliers of intermediate inputs and their multinational clients - and thus would not have been captured by the earlier literature. This paper focuses on the understudied issue of FDI spillovers through backward linkages and goes beyond existing studies by shedding some light on factors driving this phenomenon. It also improves over existing literature by addressing several econometric problems that may have biased the results of earlier research. Based on a firm-level panel data set from Lithuania, the estimation results are consistent with the existence of productivity spillovers. They suggest that a 10 percent increase in the foreign presence in downstream sectors is associated with 0.38 percent rise in output of each domestic firm in the supplying industry. The data indicate that these spillovers are not restricted geographically, since local firms seem to benefit from the operation of downstream foreign affiliates on their own, as well as in other regions. The results further show that greater productivity benefits are associated with domestic-market, rather than export-oriented, foreign affiliates. But no difference is detected between the effects of fully-owned foreign firms and those with joint domestic and foreign ownership. The findings of a positive correlation between productivity growth of domestic firms and the increase in multinational presence in downstream sectors should not, however, be interpreted as a call for subsidizing FDI. These results are consistent with the existence of knowledge spillovers from foreign affiliates to their local suppliers, but they may also be a result of increased competition in upstream sectors. While the former case would call for offering FDI incentive packages, it would not be the optimal policy in the latter. Certainly more research is needed to disentangle these two effects. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the contribution of trade and foreign direct investment to technology transfer.

Does Foreign Direct Investment Increase the Productivity of Domestic Firms? In Search of Spillovers Through Backward Linkages

Governments often promote inward foreign investment to encourage technology 'spillovers' from foreign to domestic firms. Using panel data on Venezuelan plants, the authors find that foreign equity participation is positively correlated with plant productivity (the 'own-plant' effect), but this relationship is only robust for small enterprises. They then test for spillovers from joint ventures to plants with no foreign investment. Foreign investment negatively affects the productivity of domestically owned plants. The net impact of foreign investment, taking into account these two offsetting effects, is quite small. The gains from foreign investment appear to be entirely captured by joint ventures.

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Do Domestic Firms Benefit from Direct Foreign Investment? Evidence from Venezuela

The East Asian miracle: Economic growth and public policy: By the World Bank. (New York: Oxford University Press for the World Bank, 1993. 389 pp. $19.95, paper.)

After a review of the literature, we conclude that there is potential for significant “spillover effects” from FDI into host countries. However, we identify some limitations of this potential to do with the stock of human capital, the interest in local firms of promoting skills transfer and the competition environment. We suggest comparing conditions and effects between regions, particularly between East Asia and Latin America, where transfer in the former has been more consistent than in the latter. We propose further that an analysis of the type of FDI flowing to different regions and countries could provide clues to the potential for maximising the gains to local skills accumulation. Finally, studies are needed which examine the nature of skills provided by FDI, and ways in which training institutions, business schools, for example, can complement in-service training by firms in FDI host countries.

Human Capital and Inward FDI

After a review of the literature, this paper concludes that there is potential for significant “spillover effects” from FDI into host countries. However, it identifies some limitations of this potential to do with the stock of human capital, the interest in local firms of promoting skills transfer and the competition environment. The authors suggest comparing conditions and effects between regions, particularly between East Asia and Latin America where transfer in the former has been more consistent than in the latter. They propose, further, that an analysis of the type of FDI flowing to different regions and countries could provide clues to the potential for maximising the gains to local skills accumulation. Finally, studies are needed which examine the nature of skills provided by FDI, and ways in which training institutions, business schools, for example, can complement in-service training by firms in FDI host countries ...

/pdf/fdi-and-human-capital-a-research-agenda-ltkz40ohlg.pdf

Fdi and human capital: a research agenda

This paper reviews and synthesizes the available literature focusing on the determinants of efficiency spillovers from inward FDI In order to do so, we outline a theoretical framework for understanding the underlying 'supply' and 'demand' forces determining the scope and magnitude of FDI spillovers to host economies The findings suggest that the competitiveness of host country markets and the technical capability of local firms are among the most important determinants of spillover benefits Both of these characteristics can be influenced by host country policy

The Determinants of Host Country Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment

Who does what in China’s new energy vehicle industry?

Using references in Swedish patent data, we examine technology sourcing in Swedish multi-national enterprises (MNEs) and non-multinational small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The results show that both types of firms are more likely to make references to countries with large patent stocks and to countries that are located close to Sweden. Trade and FDI also seem to facilitate the transfer of foreign technology to Sweden. However, trade contacts seem to be more important for technology sourcing in SMEs than in MNEs. Outward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is a channel for the diffusion of foreign technology to both home-country MNEs and SMEs.

Ari Kokko

Papers

Human Capital and Inward FDI

Fdi and human capital: a research agenda

The Determinants of Host Country Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment

Who does what in China’s new energy vehicle industry?

International Technology Diffusion: Evidence from Swedish Patent Data