计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

World Investment Report

Many countries compete against one another in attracting foreign investors by offering ever more generous incentive packages and justifying their actions with the productivity gains that are expected to accrue to domestic producers from knowledge externalities generated by foreign affiliates. Despite this being hugely important to public policy choices, there is little conclusive evidence indicating that domestic firms benefit from foreign presence in their sector. It is possible, though, that researchers have been looking for foreign direct investment (FDI) spillovers in the wrong place. Multinationals have an incentive to prevent information leakage that would enhance the performance of their local competitors in the same industry but at the same time may want to transfer knowledge to their local suppliers in other sectors. Spillovers from FDI may be, therefore, more likely to take place through backward linkages - that is, contacts between domestic suppliers of intermediate inputs and their multinational clients - and thus would not have been captured by the earlier literature. This paper focuses on the understudied issue of FDI spillovers through backward linkages and goes beyond existing studies by shedding some light on factors driving this phenomenon. It also improves over existing literature by addressing several econometric problems that may have biased the results of earlier research. Based on a firm-level panel data set from Lithuania, the estimation results are consistent with the existence of productivity spillovers. They suggest that a 10 percent increase in the foreign presence in downstream sectors is associated with 0.38 percent rise in output of each domestic firm in the supplying industry. The data indicate that these spillovers are not restricted geographically, since local firms seem to benefit from the operation of downstream foreign affiliates on their own, as well as in other regions. The results further show that greater productivity benefits are associated with domestic-market, rather than export-oriented, foreign affiliates. But no difference is detected between the effects of fully-owned foreign firms and those with joint domestic and foreign ownership. The findings of a positive correlation between productivity growth of domestic firms and the increase in multinational presence in downstream sectors should not, however, be interpreted as a call for subsidizing FDI. These results are consistent with the existence of knowledge spillovers from foreign affiliates to their local suppliers, but they may also be a result of increased competition in upstream sectors. While the former case would call for offering FDI incentive packages, it would not be the optimal policy in the latter. Certainly more research is needed to disentangle these two effects. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the contribution of trade and foreign direct investment to technology transfer.

Does Foreign Direct Investment Increase the Productivity of Domestic Firms? In Search of Spillovers Through Backward Linkages

Governments often promote inward foreign investment to encourage technology 'spillovers' from foreign to domestic firms. Using panel data on Venezuelan plants, the authors find that foreign equity participation is positively correlated with plant productivity (the 'own-plant' effect), but this relationship is only robust for small enterprises. They then test for spillovers from joint ventures to plants with no foreign investment. Foreign investment negatively affects the productivity of domestically owned plants. The net impact of foreign investment, taking into account these two offsetting effects, is quite small. The gains from foreign investment appear to be entirely captured by joint ventures.

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Do Domestic Firms Benefit from Direct Foreign Investment? Evidence from Venezuela

The East Asian miracle: Economic growth and public policy: By the World Bank. (New York: Oxford University Press for the World Bank, 1993. 389 pp. $19.95, paper.)

This paper provides a selective survey of the literature on home country effects of FDI, and points to some new questions regarding the impact of outward FDI on economic structure in the home country. Much of the existing literature on production interactions between the domestic and foreign operations of MNCs has examined what happens to home country exports and employment as a result of outward FDI. Although the results of earlier studies vary somewhat, there appears to be a consensus that the quantitative effects are not dramatic. The reduced exports of finished products from the home country to independent foreign customers are balanced by increases in exports of intermediate products to the foreign affiliates. However, the structural changes ? the transformation that occurs when the parent company becomes increasingly specialised in the production of intermediate goods ? have not been discussed in great detail. Drawing heavily on the example of Sweden, we outline some of the changes that have occurred as a result of the increasing globalisation of Swedish industry, and discuss some possible consequences for the Swedish economy. Our discussion suggests that the home country operations of Swedish MNCs focused increasingly on activities with relatively high raw material content and low value added during the period between the early 1980s and mid-1990s. In addition, much of R&D was concentrated to Sweden. While the high investments in R&D are probably beneficial for the home country, it is possible that the specialisation in raw material intensive operations may have some negative effects. In particular, we discuss the possible growth effects of a more concentrated industry structure. However, due to the lack of detailed data on production structure, factor intensities and other production characteristics, the discussion is largely speculative, and the paper points to the need for more data and more research in this area.

https://www.adelaide.edu.au/cies/documents/papers/0018.pdf

Fdi and the structure of home country production

Compared with its ASEAN neighbours, Vietnam appears to have weathered the Asian crisis quite well. Official statistics indicate a GDP growth rate of 6.6% for the first half of 1998; export growth remains positive, and the dong has depreciated by only 20% against the U.S. dollar. But the relatively favourable picture has more to do with controls than with sound economic fundamentals. In the absence of comprehensive reforms, the Vietnamese economy will gradually slide into a deeper recession. Influential interest groups, such as SOEs and their employees, hanker after a return to central planning. What is needed instead is a doi moi II, including measures to liberalize trade, strengthen the financial system, and promote transparency throughout the economy. Introduction Compared with most of its ASEAN neighbours, it may appear that Vietnam has weathered the Asian crisis quite well. Although the rapid growth of the past few years has slowed down, official statistics still suggest an overall growth rate of about 6.6% for the first six months of 1998. Export growth remains positive, at a rate of 5% to 10%. The exchange rate has been adjusted several times since early 1997, but the depreciation of the dong with respect to the U.S. dollar has been limited to some 20%. The rate of inflation has accelerated, but may stay below 10% for the year. The most significant negative developments are a reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI) and a moderate increase in unemployment. On balance, the official picture does not look very bad, particularly in comparison with the deep recession plaguing countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and South Korea. The fact that Vietnam has been relatively mildly affected by the "Asian flu" so far, however, has more to do with controls and regulations than with sound economic fundamentals. The exchange rate has been relatively stable because the Vietnamese dong is not freely convertible, and because both trade and foreign exchange transactions are strictly regulated. The withdrawal of foreign portfolio capital from Asia's emerging markets has not shaken Vietnam, because the weakly-developed financial market did not attract much foreign capital in the first place. There has not been any stock market collapse, because there is no stock market. Aside from these features, which have their roots in Vietnam's recent past as a command economy, the country shares many characteristics with the rest of the region. In fact, most of the structural weaknesses that have contributed to the crisis in other Asian countries can be found in Vietnam as well. Many of the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that dominate the manufacturing sector are inefficient and heavily indebted. The financial system is weak and suffers from a substantial amount of bad debt. The lack of transparency precludes detailed assessments of exactly how serious these problems are. Yet, many of the largest SOEs operate in import-substitution industries, and are not likely to become internationally competitive in the foreseeable future. The country's foreign debt is significant. The current account has recorded large deficits in recent years, and the dong is overvalued at the prevailing exchange rate. Keeping these weaknesses in mind, it is very likely that the Asian crisis will have a more profound impact on Vietnam in the near future. The turbulence in the rest of the region will make it more difficult to hide the structural deficiencies, and it will be impossible to avoid serious problems, perhaps of crisis proportions, unless significant economic reforms are undertaken. The remainder of this article provides a closer look at the Vietnamese economy during the past few years. The second section describes some features of the economy before mid-1997 and the outbreak of the crisis. The third section summarizes the macroeconomic developments since then, with particular emphasis on developments during 1998. The fourth section discusses the possible consequences for the country's development and concludes the article. …

VIETNAM - Ready for Doi Moi II?

Foreign direct investment (FDI) may benefit local firms in the host country through various kinds of spillovers, but it may also raise competition and result in the crowding out of domestic firms. ...

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Foreign Direct Investment and the Survival of Domestic Private Firms in Viet Nam

With reasonably low inflation and positive GDP growth rates in most of Europe’s transition economies since the late 1990s, the focus in the economic policy debate has gradually shifted from stabilization and recovery to questions concerning long-term growth and convergence. The new key challenge is to establish a policy environment that will facilitate catching up: there is a growing consensus that the transition economies will not be able to benefit fully from EU membership unless the development gap to the rest of Europe is reduced.

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Export-Led Growth in East Asia: Lessons for Europe’s Transition Economies

This article explores the determinants of innovative capability in a sample of MNC subsidiaries operating in the European transition economies. It finds that innovative capability and autonomy in product and process technology appear to be determined by a different set of variables than capability and autonomy in marketing and management. The most independent affiliates have high innovative capability in product and process technology, but are less prominent in marketing and management technology. Affiliates that are closely integrated with their parent company exhibit the opposite pattern. These differences may have some impact on the kinds of spillovers generated by different kinds of foreign direct investment projects.

Ari Kokko

Papers

Fdi and the structure of home country production

VIETNAM - Ready for Doi Moi II?

Foreign Direct Investment and the Survival of Domestic Private Firms in Viet Nam

Export-Led Growth in East Asia: Lessons for Europe’s Transition Economies

Innovative capability in MNC subsidiaries : evidence from four European transition economies