Machine-learning Prognostic Models from the 2014-16 Ebola Outbreak: Data-harmonization Challenges, Validation Strategies, and mHealth Applications.

Background: The general lack of comprehensive data on the trends of Lassa fever (LF) outbreaks contrasts with its widespread occurrence in West Africa and is an important constraint in the design of effective control measures. We reviewed the contribution of LF to admissions and mortality among hospitalized patients from 2001 to 2018 in the bid to address this gap. Methods: Observational study of LF caseload and mortality from 2001 to 18 in terms of the contribution of confirmed LF to admissions and deaths, and case fatality (CF) among patients with confirmed LF at a specialist center in Nigeria. The diagnosis of LF was confirmed using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test, and medians and frequencies were compared using Kruskal-Wallis, Mann-Whitney and χ2 tests, with p-values <0.05 taken as significant. Results: The contribution of confirmed LF to deaths (362/9057, 4.0%) was significantly higher than to admissions (1,298/185,707, 0.7%; OR [95% CI] = 5.9 [5.3, 6.7], p < 0.001). The average CF among patients with confirmed LF declined from 154/355 (43%) in 2001-09 to 183/867 (21.1%) (OR [95% CI] = 2.9 [2.2, 3.7], p < 0.001) in 2011-18. The annual CF declined from 94% in 2001 to 15% in 2018 whereas the caseload increased from 0.3 to 3.4%. The outbreaks were characterized by irregular cycles of high caseload in 2005-2007, 2012-2014, and 2016-2018, and progressive blurring of the seasonality. Conclusion: LF outbreaks in Nigeria have upgraded spatially and temporally, with the potential for cycles of increasing severity. The strategic establishment of LF surveillance and clinical case management centers could be a pragmatic and cost-effective approach to mitigating the outbreaks, particularly in reducing the associated CF. Urgent efforts are needed in reinvigorating extant control measures while the search for sustainable solutions continues.

Caseload and Case Fatality of Lassa Fever in Nigeria, 2001-2018: A Specialist Center's Experience and Its Implications.

50 years of oral rehydration therapy: the solution is still simple.

Management of Ebola virus disease (EVD) has historically focused on infection prevention, case detection and supportive care. Several specific anti-Ebola therapies have been investigated, including during the 2014–2016 West African outbreak. Our objective was to conduct a systematic review of the effect of anti-Ebola virus therapies on clinical outcomes to guide their potential use and future evaluation. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Global Health, Cochrane Library, African Index Medicus, WHOLIS (inception-9 April 2018), and trial registries for observational studies or clinical trials, in any language, that enrolled patients with confirmed EVD who received therapy targeting Ebola virus and reported on mortality, symptom duration, or adverse effects. From 11,257 citations and registered trials, we reviewed 55 full-text citations, of which 35 met eligibility criteria (1 randomized clinical trial (RCT), 8 non-randomized comparative studies, 9 case series and 17 case reports) and collectively examined 21 anti-Ebola virus agents. The 31 studies performed during the West African outbreak reported on 4.8% (1377/28616) of all patients with Ebola. The only RCT enrolled 72 patients (0.25% of all patients with Ebola) and compared the monoclonal antibody ZMapp vs. standard care (mortality, 22% vs. 37%; 95% confidence interval for risk difference, − 36 to 7%). Studies of convalescent plasma, interferon-β-1a, favipiravir, brincidofovir, artesunate-amodiaquine and TKM-130803 were associated with at least moderate risk of bias. Research evaluating anti-Ebola virus agents has reached very few patients with EVD, and inferences are limited by non-randomized study designs. ZMapp has the most promising treatment signal.

/pdf/anti-ebola-therapy-for-patients-with-ebola-virus-disease-a-287qt7upr4.pdf

Anti-Ebola therapy for patients with Ebola virus disease: a systematic review

In 1967, several workers involved in poliomyelitis vaccine development and production fell ill at three different locations in Europe with a severe and often lethal novel disease associated with grivets (Chlorocebus aethiops) imported from Uganda. This disease was named Marburg virus disease (MVD) after the West German town of Marburg an der Lahn, where most human infections and deaths had been recorded. Consequently, the Marburg episode received the most scientific and media attention. Cases that occurred in Frankfurt am Main, West Germany, were also described in commonly accessible scientific literature, although they were less frequently cited than those pertaining to the Marburg infections. However, two infections occurring in a third location, in Belgrade, Yugoslavia, have seemingly been all but forgotten. Due in part to their absence in commonly used databases and in part to the fact that they were written in languages other than English, the important articles describing this part of the outbreak are very rarely cited. Here, we summarize this literature and correct published inaccuracies to remind a younger generation of scientists focusing on Marburg virus and its closest filoviral relatives of this important historical context. Importantly, and unfortunately, the three episodes of infection of 1967 still represent the best in-depth clinical look at MVD in general and in the context of "modern" medicine (fully resourced versus less-resourced capacity) in particular. Hence, each individual case of these episodes holds crucial information for health care providers who may be confronted with MVD today.

Armando Garcia

Papers

Evidence-based guidelines for supportive care of patients with Ebola virus disease