Background Long-term retention of patients in Africa’s rapidly expanding antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs for HIV/AIDS is essential for these programs’ success but has received relatively little attention. In this paper we present a systematic review of patient retention in ART programs in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods and Findings We searched Medline, other literature databases, conference abstracts, publications archives, and the ‘‘gray literature’’ (project reports available online) between 2000 and 2007 for reports on the proportion of adult patients retained (i.e., remaining in care and on ART) after 6 mo or longer in sub-Saharan African, non-research ART programs, with and without donor support. Estimated retention rates at 6, 12, and 24 mo were calculated and plotted for each program. Retention was also estimated using Kaplan-Meier curves. In sensitivity analyses we considered best-case, worst-case, and midpoint scenarios for retention at 2 y; the best-case scenario assumed no further attrition beyond that reported, while the worst-case scenario assumed that attrition would continue in a linear fashion. We reviewed 32 publications reporting on 33 patient cohorts (74,192 patients, 13 countries). For all studies, the weighted average follow-up period reported was 9.9 mo, after which 77.5% of patients were retained. Loss to follow-up and death accounted for 56% and 40% of attrition, respectively. Weighted mean retention rates as reported were 79.1%, 75.0% and 61.6 % at 6, 12, and 24 mo, respectively. Of those reporting 24 mo of follow-up, the best program retained 85% of patients and the worst retained 46%. Attrition was higher in studies with shorter reporting periods, leading to monthly weighted mean attrition rates of 3.3%/mo, 1.9%/mo, and 1.6%/month for studies reporting to 6, 12, and 24 months, respectively, and suggesting that overall patient retention may be overestimated in the published reports. In sensitivity analyses, estimated retention rates ranged from 24% in the worse case to 77% in the best case at the end of 2 y, with a plausible midpoint scenario of 50%.

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Patient Retention in Antiretroviral Therapy Programs in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review

ContextThe Zambian Ministry of Health has scaled-up human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) care and treatment services at primary care clinics in Lusaka, using predominately nonphysician clinicians.ObjectiveTo report on the feasibility and early outcomes of the program.Design, Setting, and PatientsOpen cohort evaluation of antiretroviral-naive adults treated at 18 primary care facilities between April 26, 2004, and November 5, 2005. Data were entered in real time into an electronic patient tracking system.InterventionThose meeting criteria for antiretroviral therapy (ART) received drugs according to Zambian national guidelines.Main Outcome MeasuresSurvival, regimen failure rates, and CD4 cell response.ResultsWe enrolled 21 755 adults into HIV care, and 16 198 (75%) started ART. Among those starting ART, 9864 (61%) were women. Of 15 866 patients with documented World Health Organization (WHO) staging, 11 573 (73%) were stage III or IV, and the mean (SD) entry CD4 cell count among the 15 336 patients with a baseline result was 143/μL (123/μL). Of 1142 patients receiving ART who died, 1120 had a reliable date of death. Of these patients, 792 (71%) died within 90 days of starting therapy (early mortality rate: 26 per 100 patient-years), and 328 (29%) died after 90 days (post-90-day mortality rate: 5.0 per 100 patient-years). In multivariable analysis, mortality was strongly associated with CD4 cell count between 50/μL and 199/μL (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 1.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0-2.0), CD4 cell count less than 50/μL (AHR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.5-3.1), WHO stage III disease (AHR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.3-2.4), WHO stage IV disease (AHR, 2.9; 95% CI, 2.0-4.3), low body mass index (<16; AHR,2.4; 95% CI, 1.8-3.2), severe anemia (<8.0 g/dL; AHR, 3.1; 95% CI, 2.3-4.0), and poor adherence to therapy (AHR, 2.9; 95% CI, 2.2-3.9). Of 11 714 patients at risk, 861 failed therapy by clinical criteria (rate, 13 per 100 patient-years). The mean (SD) CD4 cell count increase was 175/μL (174/μL) in 1361 of 1519 patients (90%) receiving treatment long enough to have a 12-month repeat.ConclusionMassive scale-up of HIV and AIDS treatment services with good clinical outcomes is feasible in primary care settings in sub-Saharan Africa. Most mortality occurs early, suggesting that earlier diagnosis and treatment may improve outcomes.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/articlepdf/203173/JOC60095.pdf

Rapid scale-up of antiretroviral therapy at primary care sites in Zambia: Feasibility and early outcomes

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(06)69158-7.pdf

The WHO public-health approach to antiretroviral treatment against HIV in resource-limited settings

Two-thirds of the world's HIV-infected people live in sub-Saharan Africa, and more than 1.5 million of them die annually. As access to antiretroviral treatment has expanded within the region; early pessimism concerning the delivery of antiretroviral treatment using a large-scale public health approach has, at least in the short term, proved to be broadly unfounded. Immunological and virological responses to ART are similar to responses in patients treated in high-income countries. Despite this, however, early mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa are very high; between 8 and 26% of patients die in the first year of antiretroviral treatment, with most deaths occurring in the first few months. Patients typically access antiretroviral treatment with advanced symptomatic disease, and mortality is strongly associated with baseline CD4 cell count less than 50 cells/mul and WHO stage 4 disease (AIDS). Although data are limited, leading causes of death appear to be tuberculosis, acute sepsis, cryptococcal meningitis, malignancy and wasting syndrome. Mortality rates are likely to depend not only on the care delivered by antiretroviral treatment programmes, but more fundamentally on how advanced disease is at programme enrollment and the quality of preceding healthcare. In addition to improving delivery of antiretroviral treatment and providing it free of charge to the patient, strategies to reduce mortality must include earlier diagnosis of HIV infection, strengthening of longitudinal HIV care and timely initiation of antiretroviral treatment. Health systems delays in antiretroviral treatment initiation must be minimized, especially in patients who present with advanced immunodeficiency.

/pdf/early-mortality-among-adults-accessing-antiretroviral-5chuyo8xtv.pdf

Early mortality among adults accessing antiretroviral treatment programmes in sub-Saharan Africa.

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(06)69157-5.pdf

HIV/AIDS epidemiology, pathogenesis, prevention, and treatment

http://home.cc.umanitoba.ca/~chaser/readings/HIV-AIDS-Afghan%20Case%20Study2/scaling%20up%20antiretrovirals-Malawi.pdf

Arnaud Jeannin

Papers

Scaling up of highly active antiretroviral therapy in a rural district of Malawi: an effectiveness assessment.