世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.2307%2F3343168.pdf

Development as Freedom

The present historical moment may seem a particularly inopportune time to review Bowling Alone, Robert Putnam's latest exploration of civic decline in America. After all, the outpouring of volunteerism, solidarity, patriotism, and self-sacrifice displayed by Americans in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks appears to fly in the face of Putnam's central argument: that \"social capital\" -defined as \"social networks and the norms of reciprocity and trustworthiness that arise from them\" (p. 19)'has declined to dangerously low levels in America over the last three decades. However, Putnam is not fazed in the least by the recent effusion of solidarity. Quite the contrary, he sees in it the potential to \"reverse what has been a 30to 40-year steady decline in most measures of connectedness or community.\"' As an example of how the current \"war on terrorism\" could generate a durable civic renewal, Putnam points to the burst in civic practices that occurred during and after World War II, which he says \"permanently marked\" the generation that lived through it and had a \"terrific effect on American public life over the last half-century.\" 3 If Americans can follow this example and channel their current civic

Bowling alone: The collapse and revival of American community

We investigate whether income inequality affects subsequent growth in a cross-country sample for 1965-90, using the models of Barro (1997), Bleaney and Nishiyama (2002) and Sachs and Warner (1997), with negative results. We then investigate the evolution of income inequality over the same period and its correlation with growth. The dominating feature is inequality convergence across countries. This convergence has been significantly faster amongst developed countries. Growth does not appear to influence the evolution of inequality over time. Outline

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/81822/1/02-28.pdf

Economic growth and income inequality

This paper reviews the empirical literature on the economic costs of corruption. Corruption affects economic growth, the level of GDP per capita, investment activity, international trade and price stability negatively. Additionally, it biases the composition of government expenditures. The second part of the paper estimates the effect of corruption on economic growth and GDP per capita as well as on six possible transmission channels. The results of this analysis allows to calculate the total effect of corruption: An increase of corruption by about one index point reduces GDP growth by 0.13 percentage points and GDP per capita by 425 US$.

The Economic Costs of Corruption: A Survey and New Evidence

We examine whether and under which circumstances World Bank projects and IMF programs affect the likelihood of major government crises. Using a sample of more than 90 developing countries over the period 1970-2002, we find that crises are on average more likely as a consequence of Bank and Fund involvement. While the effects of the IMF to some extent depend on the model specification, those of the World Bank are shown to be robust to the choice of control variables and method of estimation. We also find that governments face an increasing risk to enter a crisis when they remain under an arrangement once the economy performs better. The (economic) conditions present when a new arrangement is initiated, however, do not affect the impact of Fund and Bank on the probability of a crisis. Finally, while crisis probability rises when a government turns to the IFIs itself, programs inherited by preceding governments do not affect the probability of a crisis.

/pdf/do-imf-and-world-bank-programs-induce-government-crises-an-189zqdgrgq.pdf

Do IMF and World Bank Programs Induce Government Crises? An Empirical Analysis

We empirically analyze convergence of European producer and consumer prices for diesel fuel and investigate the role of excise taxation. By comparing the speed of convergence of prices and taxes we find a surprisingly fast speed of convergence for consumer prices. While this can in part be explained by fuel tourism, the main driving force is producer price dynamics. Tax convergence contributes weakly to price convergence, but the overall effect is to slow down consumer relative to producer price convergence.

/pdf/diesel-price-convergence-and-mineral-oil-taxation-in-europe-2yd8vz4az9.pdf

Diesel Price Convergence and Mineral Oil Taxation in Europe

We focus on the role that the transmission of information between a multilateral (e.g., the IMF) and a country has for optimal (conditional) reform design. The main result is that the informational advantage of the country must be strictly greater than the advantage of the multilateral in order to increase a country’s discretion in the choice of the policies to be implemented (country ownership). To the contrary, an increase in the conflict of interests between the multilateral and the country may lead the multilateral to leave more freedom in designing reforms, which is at odds to what is commonly argued. Our empirical results provide support to the idea that the IMF follows an optimal allocation rule of control rights over policies, leaving the recipient countries more freedom whenever their local knowledge appears to be crucial for designing more adequate reforms.

/pdf/read-my-lips-the-role-of-information-transmission-in-1nwmav8b7h.pdf

Read My Lips: The Role of Information Transmission in Multilateral Reform Design

Im Januar 2017 stellte Bundesminister Dr. Gerd Muller die Eckpunkte fur den Marshallplan mit Afrika vor. Statt weiter Geld nach dem Gieskannenprinzip zu verteilen, soll zukunftig der Aufbau stabiler Wirtschaftsstrukturen gezielt gefordert und die Eigenverantwortung der Regierungen gestarkt werden. In seinem Beitrag stellt Bundesminister Gerd Muller den Marshallplan mit Afrika vor und unterstreicht, dass »eine Partnerschaft auf Augenhohe« sowie eine verstarkte Mobilisierung privaten Kapitals und privater Investitionen erforderlich sei. Fur Andreas Freytag und Susanne Fricke, Universitat Jena, unterscheidet sich der aktuelle Marshallplan »wohltuend von althergebrachten Entwicklungsstrategien «. So betone er u.a. die Bedeutung der Wirtschaft fur den Entwicklungsprozess Afrikas und mahne Investitionen, Bildung fur die Jugend, die Einbindung in die Wertschopfungsketten sowie die Schaffung eines Mittelstandes an. Ihm fehle aber eine definierte Schwerpunktsetzung. Franz Josef Radermacher, Universitat Ulm und Club of Rome, beschreibt als Zielsetzung des Marshallplans eine »Wohlstandsexplosion in Afrika, insbesondere in Nordafrika«, die mit allen Nachhaltigkeitsanforderungen kompatibel gestaltet werden soll. Nach Meinung von Axel Dreher und Sarah Langlotz, Universitat Heidelberg, sieht der Marshallplan mit Afrika eine Konzentration der Hilfe auf wenige reformwillige Lander vor, wodurch armere Lander an Unterstutzung verlieren. Zudem betone der Plan Bedingungen, die an die deutschen Zahlungen geknupft werden sollen. Detaillierte Bedingungen, von deren Einhaltung konkrete Hilfszahlungen abhangig gemacht werden, seien aber wenig sinnvoll. Deutschland solle sich stattdessen in Richtung einer bedingungslosen Budgethilfe bewegen. Werner Abelshauser, Universitat Bielefeld, sieht den Marshallplan als Modell absolut ungeeignet, um Entwicklungslander voranzubringen. Denn anders als in den meisten Empfangerlandern Westeuropas nach dem Krieg fehle es dort gerade an Potenzial und wirtschaftskulturellen Voraussetzungen, deren Nutzbarmachung eine Frage der Finanzierung ware. Nach Ansicht von Matthias Wachter und Jennifer Howe, BDI, greift der Marshallplan viele gute Ansatze auf. Dennoch bleibe es fraglich, ob er tatsachlich die wirtschaftliche Situation in Afrika verbessern konne. Fur eine koharente Strategie ware die aktive Einbindung aller Bundesressorts notig gewesen.

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/165879/1/ifosd-v70-2017-i04-p03-20.pdf

Axel Dreher

Papers

The Economic Costs of Corruption: A Survey and New Evidence

Do IMF and World Bank Programs Induce Government Crises? An Empirical Analysis

Diesel Price Convergence and Mineral Oil Taxation in Europe

Read My Lips: The Role of Information Transmission in Multilateral Reform Design

Ein Marshallplan mit Afrika: Geeignetes Konzept für eine nachhaltige Entwicklung?