世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.2307%2F3343168.pdf

Development as Freedom

The present historical moment may seem a particularly inopportune time to review Bowling Alone, Robert Putnam's latest exploration of civic decline in America. After all, the outpouring of volunteerism, solidarity, patriotism, and self-sacrifice displayed by Americans in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks appears to fly in the face of Putnam's central argument: that \"social capital\" -defined as \"social networks and the norms of reciprocity and trustworthiness that arise from them\" (p. 19)'has declined to dangerously low levels in America over the last three decades. However, Putnam is not fazed in the least by the recent effusion of solidarity. Quite the contrary, he sees in it the potential to \"reverse what has been a 30to 40-year steady decline in most measures of connectedness or community.\"' As an example of how the current \"war on terrorism\" could generate a durable civic renewal, Putnam points to the burst in civic practices that occurred during and after World War II, which he says \"permanently marked\" the generation that lived through it and had a \"terrific effect on American public life over the last half-century.\" 3 If Americans can follow this example and channel their current civic

Bowling alone: The collapse and revival of American community

We investigate whether income inequality affects subsequent growth in a cross-country sample for 1965-90, using the models of Barro (1997), Bleaney and Nishiyama (2002) and Sachs and Warner (1997), with negative results. We then investigate the evolution of income inequality over the same period and its correlation with growth. The dominating feature is inequality convergence across countries. This convergence has been significantly faster amongst developed countries. Growth does not appear to influence the evolution of inequality over time. Outline

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/81822/1/02-28.pdf

Economic growth and income inequality

We analyze how a country's immigrant population—defined as the stock of people born abroad—affects the probability of a terrorist attack in the host country. Using data for 20 OECD host countries and 183 countries of origin over the 1980–2010 period our OLS and 2SLS regressions show that the probability that immigrants from a specific country of origin conduct a terrorist attack in their host country increases with a larger number of foreigners from such countries living there. However, this scale effect does not differ from the effect domestic populations have on domestic terror. We find scarce evidence that terror is systematically imported from countries with large Muslim populations or countries where terror networks prevail. Policies that exclude foreigners already living in a country increase rather than reduce the risk that foreign populations turn violent, and so do terrorist attacks against foreigners in their host country. Highly skilled migrants are associated with a significantly lower risk of terror compared with low skilled ones, while there is no significant difference between foreign‐born men and women. L’effet de l’immigration sur le terrorisme: pur produit domestique ou importe de l’etranger? Dans cet article, nous analysons la facon dont la population immigree d’un pays, c’est a dire la population nee a l’etranger, a une incidence sur la probabilite d’une attaque terroriste dans le pays d’accueil. En s’appuyant sur les donnees de 20 pays d’accueil de l’OCDE et 183 pays d’origine, nos regressions a moindres carres ordinaire (MCO) et a doubles moindres carres (2SLS) montrent que la probabilite que des immigrants d’un pays d’origine particulier commettent une attaque terroriste dans leur pays d’accueil augmente des lors que la population immigree de meme nationalite est importante au sein du meme pays. Neanmoins, cet effet d’echelle ne differe en rien de celui que peut avoir les populations nationales sur le terrorisme local. Nous n’avons pas degage de preuves evidentes corroborant le fait que le terrorisme est systematiquement importe de pays a vaste population musulmane ou de pays ou regnent de nombreux reseaux terroristes. Les politiques excluant les etrangers vivant deja dans un pays ont plutot tendance a augmenter le risque que cette population ne se tourne vers la violence que de le reduire, et il en va de meme pour les attaques terroristes visant les etrangers dans leur pays d’accueil. En matiere de terrorisme, les immigrants hautement qualifies sont associes a un risque sensiblement moindre que les immigrants peu qualifies, et il n’y a pas de difference significative entre les hommes et les femmes nes a l’etranger.

https://www.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/caje.12469

The effect of migration on terror: Made at home or imported from abroad?

Natural disasters represent a major challenge for human welfare across the globe. Given the prominent role of international humanitarian aid in alleviating human suffering, the investigation of its determinants is of paramount importance. While existing studies show its allocation to be influenced by donors' foreign policy considerations, domestic political factors within recipient countries have not been systematically explored. This paper addresses this important research gap by investigating whether regional favoritism shapes humanitarian aid flows. Using a rich and unique dataset derived from reports of the Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA), we show that substantially larger amounts of aid are disbursed when natural disasters hit the birth region of the recipient countries' political leader. While we find no evidence that US commercial or political interests affect the size of this home bias, the bias is stronger in countries with a weaker bureaucracy and governance, suggesting the absence of effective safeguards in the allocation of aid.

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/203140/1/1676293426.pdf

Home bias in humanitarian aid: The role of regional favoritism in the allocation of international disaster relief

Using panel data for 157 countries over the period 1999-2005 we empirically investigate the politics involved in IMF economic forecasts. We find a systematic bias in growth and inflation forecasts. Our results indicate that countries voting in line with the US in the UN General Assembly receive lower inflation forecasts. As the US is the Fund’s major shareholder, this result supports the hypothesis that the Fund’s forecasts are not purely based on economic considerations. We further find inflation forecasts are systematically biased downwards for countries with greater IMF loans outstanding relative to GDP, indicating that the IMF engages in “defensive forecasting.” Countries with a fixed exchange rate regime also receive low inflation forecasts. Considering the detrimental effects that inflation can have under such an exchange rate regime, we consider this evidence consistent with the Fund’s desire to preserve economic stability.

The Politics of IMF Forecasts

Using panel data for 188 countries over the period 1970-2002 this paper empirically analyzes the influence of the IMF and the World Bank on voting patterns in the UN General Assembly. Countries receiving adjustment programs and larger non-concessional loans from the World Bank vote more frequently in line with the average G7 country. The same is true for countries obtaining non-concessional IMF programs. Regarding voting coincidence with the US, World Bank (concessional and non-concessional) loans have a significant impact, while the IMF has not. These results are robust to the inclusion of control variables and method of estimation.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID905759_code459177.pdf?abstractid=905759&mirid=1

Do IMF and World Bank Influence Voting in the Un General Assembly

We develop a public choice model of the International Monetary Fund in which credit and conditionality are simultaneously determined by the demand for, and supply of, IMF credit. A graphical analysis illustrates the comparative statics in response to various shocks. We apply the model to explain the main changes in the rules governing conditionality and in the number of conditions per program. We observe a highly significant positive correlation between the number of conditions per program and the prior use of Fund credit relative to quota in 1959-99. A panel data analysis of 206 letters of intent in 4/1997-2/2003 reveals that the number of conditions depends negatively on international reserves and positively on interest rates in the world capital market, monetary expansion in the borrowing country and the number of World Bank adjustment loans. Finally, the effects of conditionality are analyzed for the first time. Our instrumental-variables estimate shows that the number of conditions does not have a significant effect on any of the five typical instrument and target variables considered. The final section links the analysis of IMF conditionality with the literature on tied transfers in public economics and develops some novel proposals for the reform of IMF conditionality.

Axel Dreher

Papers

The effect of migration on terror: Made at home or imported from abroad?

Home bias in humanitarian aid: The role of regional favoritism in the allocation of international disaster relief

The Politics of IMF Forecasts

Do IMF and World Bank Influence Voting in the Un General Assembly

The Causes and Consequences of IMF Conditionality