Towards a unified framework for extreme sea waves from spectral models: rationale and applications

Rogue waves are individual ocean surface waves with crest height [Formula: see text] or trough-to-crest height H that are large compared to the significant wave height [Formula: see text] of the underlying sea state: [Formula: see text] or [Formula: see text]. The physics of rogue wave generation and the potential of predicting the rogue wave risk are open questions. Only a few rogue waves in high sea states have been observed directly, but they can pose a danger to marine operations, onshore and offshore structures, and beachgoers. Here we report on a 17.6m high rogue wave in coastal waters with [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] which are likely the largest normalized heights ever recorded. Simulations of random superposition of Stokes waves in intermediate water depth show good agreement with the observation. Non-linear wave modulational instability, a well known cause for rogue waves in laboratory settings, did not contribute significantly to the rogue wave generation. A parameter obtained from a routine spectral wave forecast provides a practical risk prediction for rogue waves. These results confirm that probabilistic prediction of oceanic rogue waves based on random superposition of steep waves are possible and should replace predictions based on modulational instability. 

/pdf/generation-mechanism-and-prediction-of-an-observed-extreme-3mg7skll.pdf

Generation mechanism and prediction of an observed extreme rogue wave

We conduct a comprehensive analysis of over 350 years of accumulated ocean surface elevation time series and examine evidence for the effects of nonlinear frequency modulation, wave directional spread, surface current shear, and wind forcing on the likelihood of rogue wave development. Hourly sections of positional time series from 34 surface buoys are examined to identify over 8000 rogue wave events, recording wave sizes, times of occurrence, and geographic locations. The initial dataset is subjected to a quality control process to identify and remove false positives. We investigate the correlation of rogue events with the specified marine environmental factors in an attempt to validate the predictions of earlier theoretical and modeling analyses. The rogue event dataset is contrasted with a control, non-rogue dataset containing a total of nearly 510,000 hourly data segments of surface wave data. The analysis combines the wave records with surface current and wind data from state-of-the-art global coupled models. Statistics of the identified rogue events are summarized, and results of the environmental factor analysis are presented and discussed. This study finds some support for a causal connection between each of the environmental factors and the development of rogue waves. Results also suggest that localized environmental conditions at specific sites, such as seasonal variations in directional spread and/or high surface current vorticity, may provide useful signals of greater rogue wave threat.

https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/8/11/890/pdf

Measured Rogue Waves and Their Environment

Distribution of sea-surface elevations in intermediate and shallow water depths

An experimental study on wave forces on a vertical cylinder due to spilling breaking and near-breaking wave groups

We present a statistical analysis of nearshore waves observed during two major North–East Atlantic storms in 2015 and 2017. Surface elevations were measured with a 5-beam acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) at relatively shallow waters off the west coast of Ireland. To compensate for the significant variability of both sea states in time, we consider a novel approach for analyzing the non-stationary surface-elevation series and compare the distributions of crest and wave heights observed with theoretical predictions based on the Forristall, Tayfun and Boccotti models. In particular, the latter two models have been largely applied to and validated for deep-water waves. We show here that they also describe well the characteristics of waves observed in relatively shallow waters. The largest nearshore waves observed during the two storms do not exceed the rogue thresholds as the Draupner, Andrea, Killard or El Faro rogue waves do in intermediate or deep-water depths. Nevertheless, our analysis reveals that modulational instabilities are ineffective, third-order resonances negligible and the largest waves observed here have characteristics quite similar to those displayed by rogue waves for which second order bound nonlinearities are the principal factor that enhances the linear dispersive focusing of extreme waves.

/pdf/large-nearshore-storm-waves-off-the-irish-coast-1scndh8sxs.pdf

Aziz Tayfun

Papers

Large nearshore storm waves off the Irish coast.