Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

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Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

Abstract A two-dimensional version of the Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model has been applied to Winter Monsoon Experiment data in order to simulate the diurnally occurring convection observed over the South China Sea. The domain includes a representation of part of Borneo as well as the sea so that the model can simulate the initiation of convection. Also included in the model are parameterizations of mesoscale ice phase and moisture processes and longwave and shortwave radiation with a diurnal cycle. This allows use of the model to test the relative importance of various heating mechanisms to the stratiform cloud deck, which typically occupies several hundred kilometers of the domain. Frank and Cohen's cumulus parameterization scheme is employed to represent vital unresolved vertical transports in the convective area. The major conclusions are: Ice phase processes are important in determining the level of maximum large-scale heating and vertical motion because there is a strong anvil componen...

Numerical study of convection observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model [presentation]

The increasing severity of droughts/floods and worsening air quality from increasing aerosols in Asia monsoon regions are the two gravest threats facing over 60% of the world population living in Asian monsoon regions. These dual threats have fueled a large body of research in the last decade on the roles of aerosols in impacting Asian monsoon weather and climate. This paper provides a comprehensive review of studies on Asian aerosols, monsoons, and their interactions. The Asian monsoon region is a primary source of emissions of diverse species of aerosols from both anthropogenic and natural origins. The distributions of aerosol loading are strongly influenced by distinct weather and climatic regimes, which are, in turn, modulated by aerosol effects. On a continental scale, aerosols reduce surface insolation and weaken the land-ocean thermal contrast, thus inhibiting the development of monsoons. Locally, aerosol radiative effects alter the thermodynamic stability and convective potential of the lower atmosphere leading to reduced temperatures, increased atmospheric stability, and weakened wind and atmospheric circulations. The atmospheric thermodynamic state, which determines the formation of clouds, convection, and precipitation, may also be altered by aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei. Absorbing aerosols such as black carbon and desert dust in Asian monsoon regions may also induce dynamical feedback processes, leading to a strengthening of the early monsoon and affecting the subsequent evolution of the monsoon. Many mechanisms have been put forth regarding how aerosols modulate the amplitude, frequency, intensity, and phase of different monsoon climate variables. A wide range of theoretical, observational, and modeling findings on the Asian monsoon, aerosols, and their interactions are synthesized. A new paradigm is proposed on investigating aerosol-monsoon interactions, in which natural aerosols such as desert dust, black carbon from biomass burning, and biogenic aerosols from vegetation are considered integral components of an intrinsic aerosol-monsoon climate system, subject to external forcing of global warming, anthropogenic aerosols, and land use and change. Future research on aerosol-monsoon interactions calls for an integrated approach and international collaborations based on long-term sustained observations, process measurements, and improved models, as well as using observations to constrain model simulations and projections.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2015RG000500

Aerosol and monsoon climate interactions over Asia

The Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) level-2 (L2) cloud product (earth science data set names MOD06 and MYD06 for Terra and Aqua MODIS, respectively) provides pixel-level retrievals of cloud top properties (day and night pressure, temperature, and height) and cloud optical properties (optical thickness, effective particle radius, and water path for both liquid water and ice cloud thermodynamic phases—daytime only) Collection 6 (C6) reprocessing of the product was completed in May 2014 and March 2015 for MODIS Aqua and Terra, respectively Here we provide an overview of major C6 optical property algorithm changes relative to the previous Collection 5 (C5) product Notable C6 optical and microphysical algorithm changes include: 1) new ice cloud optical property models and a more extensive cloud radiative transfer code lookup table (LUT) approach; 2) improvement in the skill of the shortwave-derived cloud thermodynamic phase; 3) separate cloud effective radius retrieval data sets for each spectral combination used in previous collections; 4) separate retrievals for partly cloudy pixels and those associated with cloud edges; 5) failure metrics that provide diagnostic information for pixels having observations that fall outside the LUT solution space; and 6) enhanced pixel-level retrieval uncertainty calculations The C6 algorithm changes can collectively result in significant changes relative to C5, though the magnitude depends on the data set and the pixel’s retrieval location in the cloud parameter space Example L2 granule and level-3 gridded data set differences between the two collections are shown While the emphasis is on the suite of cloud optical property data sets, other MODIS cloud data sets are discussed when relevant

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The MODIS Cloud Optical and Microphysical Products: Collection 6 Updates and Examples From Terra and Aqua

Atmospheric reanalyses depend on a mix of observations and model forecasts. In data-sparse regions such as the Arctic, the reanalysis solution is more dependent on the model structure, assumptions, and data assimilation methods than in data-rich regions. Applications such as the forcing of ice–ocean models are sensitive to the errors in reanalyses. Seven reanalysis datasets for the Arctic region are compared over the 30-yr period 1981–2010: National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)–National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis 1 (NCEP-R1) and NCEP–U.S. Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 (NCEP-R2), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Twentieth-Century Reanalysis (20CR), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), and Japanese 25-year Reanalysis Project (JRA-25). Emphasis is placed on variables not observed directly including surface fluxes and precipitation and their trends. The monthly averaged surface tem...

/pdf/evaluation-of-seven-different-atmospheric-reanalysis-vzeafi1hma.pdf

Evaluation of Seven Different Atmospheric Reanalysis Products in the Arctic

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2018JD028850

Using AIRS and ARM SGP Clear-Sky Observations to Evaluate Meteorological Reanalyses: A Hyperspectral Radiance Closure Approach

A record of global single-layered ice cloud properties has been generated using the CloudSat and CALIPSO Ice Cloud Property Product (2C-ICE) during the period 2007–2010. These ice cloud properties are used as inputs for the NASA Langley modified Fu–Liou radiative transfer model to calculate cloud radiative heating rate profiles and are compared with the NASA CERES observed top-of-atmosphere fluxes. The radiative heating rate profiles calculated in the CloudSat/CALIPSO 2B-FLXHR-LIDAR and CCCM_CC products are also examined to assess consistency and uncertainty of their properties using independent methods. Based on the methods and definitions used herein, single-layered ice clouds have a global occurrence frequency of ~ 18%, with most of them occurring in the tropics above 12 km. Zonal mean cloud radiative heating rate profiles from the three datasets are similar in their patterns of SW warming and LW cooling with small differences in magnitude; nevertheless, all three datasets show that the strongest net heating (> + 1.0 K day−1) occurs in the tropics (latitude   ~ 50°). Differences in radiative heating rates are also assessed based on composites of the 2C-ICE ice water path (IWP) and total column water vapor (TCWV) mixing ratio to facilitate model evaluation and guide ice cloud parameterization improvement. Positive net cloud radiative heating rates are maximized in the upper troposphere for large IWPs and large TCWV, with an uncertainty of 10–25% in the magnitude and vertical structure of this heating.

A global record of single-layered ice cloud properties and associated radiative heating rate profiles from an A-Train perspective

Marine boundary layer (MBL) cloud properties derived from the NASA Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project using Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data are compared with observations taken at the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility at the Azores (AMF-Azores) site from June 2009 through December 2010. Cloud properties derived from ARM ground-based observations were averaged over a 1 h interval centered at the satellite overpass time, while the CERES-MODIS (CM) results were averaged within a 30 km × 30 km grid box centered over the Azores site. A total of 63 daytime and 92 nighttime single-layered overcast MBL cloud cases were selected from 19 months of ARM radar-lidar and satellite observations. The CM cloud top/base heights (Htop/Hbase) were determined from cloud top/base temperatures (Ttop/Tbase) using a regional boundary layer lapse rate method. For daytime comparisons, the CM-derived Htop (Hbase), on average, is 0.063 km (0.068 km) higher (lower) than its ARM radar-lidar-observed counterpart, and the CM-derived Ttop and Tbase are 0.9 K less and 2.5 K greater than the surface values with high correlations (R2 = 0.82 and 0.84, respectively). In general, the cloud top comparisons agree better than the cloud base comparisons, because the CM cloud base temperatures and heights are secondary products determined from cloud top temperatures and heights. No significant day-night difference was found in the analyses. The comparisons of MBL cloud microphysical properties reveal that when averaged over a 30 km × 30 km area, the CM-retrieved cloud droplet effective radius (re) at 3.7 µm is 1.3 µm larger than that from the ARM retrievals (12.8 µm), while the CM-retrieved cloud liquid water path (LWP) is 13.5 gm−2 less than its ARM counterpart (114.2 gm−2) due to its small optical depth (9.6 versus 13.7). The differences are reduced by 50% when the CM averages are computed only using the MODIS pixel nearest the AMF site. Using the effective radius retrieved using 2.1  µm channel to calculate LWP can reduce the difference between the CM and ARM microwave radiometer retrievals from −13.7 to 2.1 gm−2. The 10% differences between the ARM and CERES-MODIS LWP and re retrievals are within the uncertainties of the ARM LWP (~20 gm−2) and re (~10%) retrievals; however, the 30% difference in optical depth is significant. Possible reasons contributing to this discrepancy are increased sensitivities in optical depth from both surface retrievals when τ~10 and topography. The τ differences vary with wind direction and are consistent with the island orography. Much better agreement in τ is obtained when using only those data taken when the wind is from the northeast, where topographical effects on the sampled clouds are minimal.

Comparison of Marine Boundary Layer Cloud Properties From CERES-MODIS Edition 4 and DOE ARM AMF Measurements at the Azores

This study compares the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) 1 Degree Daily (1DD) precipitation estimates over the continental United States (CONUS) with National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (NMQ) Next Generation (Q2) estimates. Spatial averages of monthly and yearly accumulated precipitation were computed based on daily estimates from six selected regions during the period 2010–12. Both Q2 and GPCP daily precipitation estimates show that precipitation amounts over southern regions (<40°N) are generally larger than northern regions (≥40°N). Correlation coefficients for daily estimates over selected regions range from 0.355 to 0.516 with mean differences (GPCP − Q2) varying from −0.86 to 0.99 mm. Better agreements are found in monthly estimates with the correlations varying from 0.635 to 0.787. For spatially averaged precipitation values averaged from grid boxes within selected regions, GPCP and Q2 estimates are well correlated, especially for monthly ac...

Comparison of the GPCP 1DD Precipitation Product and NEXRAD Q2 Precipitation Estimates over the Continental United States

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Baike Xi

Papers

Using AIRS and ARM SGP Clear-Sky Observations to Evaluate Meteorological Reanalyses: A Hyperspectral Radiance Closure Approach

A global record of single-layered ice cloud properties and associated radiative heating rate profiles from an A-Train perspective

Comparison of Marine Boundary Layer Cloud Properties From CERES-MODIS Edition 4 and DOE ARM AMF Measurements at the Azores

Comparison of the GPCP 1DD Precipitation Product and NEXRAD Q2 Precipitation Estimates over the Continental United States

New Observational Constraints on Warm Rain Processes and Their Climate Implications