Bakhtiar Rifai

Bio: Bakhtiar Rifai is an academic researcher. The author has contributed to research in topics: Agriculture & Economics. The author has an hindex of 1, co-authored 2 publications receiving 3 citations.

Structural Change and Regional Economic Growth in Indonesia

Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between structural change and regional economic growth in Indonesia. We utilize several measures of structural change, i.e. structural change index, norm absolute value index, shift-share method, and effective structural change index, for 30 provinces over the period 2005-2018. We show that the structural change has occurred across provinces, even though it is slowing, towards an agricultural-services transition. By employing dynamic panel data models, this study shows that structural change is a significant determinant of growth. However, structural change matters for growth only if there is an increase in productivity, not only a movement of labor across sectors. An improvement in productivity within sectors and a movement of labors to other sectors with better productivity lead to a better economic development.

Diagnosis Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Output Potensial Indonesia

Abstract: Abstrak Salah satu alat pendekatan yang digunakan dalam melakukan diagnosis posisi perekonomian suatu negara adalah analisis output gap yang merupakan selisih antara output aktual dan potensial. Hasil analisis tersebut menggambarkan kondisi siklus bisnis suatu perekonomian. Hal ini berguna sebagai dasar pertimbangan dalam penyusunan kerangka kebijakan ekonomi. Bertolak dari hal tersebut, tulisan ini menjelaskan hasil estimasi output potensial dan output gap Indonesia berdasarkan tiga pendekatan, yakni Hodrick-Prescott (HP) Filter, Band-Pass (BP) Filter, dan Pendekatan Fungsi Produksi (Growth Accounting). Ketiga metode tersebut secara konsisten menunjukkan bahwa kondisi perekonomian Indonesia di tahun 2017 hanya sedikit di bawah level potensialnya. Selanjutnya dengan mengaplikasikan asumsi kinerja pertumbuhan tahun 2018 dan 2019 masing-masing sebesar 5,4 persen dan 5,6 persen, perekonomian Indonesia akan melampaui level potensialnya di tahun 2019. Kondisi tersebut perlu menjadi perhatian dalam pengambilan kebijakan, baik dalam jangka pendek maupun menengah. Dalam jangka pendek, output gap yang positif mendorong adanya tekanan inflasi ( inflationary pressure ) sehingga upaya pengendalian inflasi perlu menjadi prioritas pemerintah. Sementara itu dalam jangka menengah, upaya reformasi struktural harus terus dilakukan untuk meningkatkan output potensial, mencakup faktor tenaga kerja peningkatan partisipasi angkatan kerja, faktor kapital melalui investasi yang berkelanjutan, serta faktor produktivitas dengan peningkatan kualitas human capital dan penguasaan teknologi.

The Spread of Modern Industry to the Periphery since 1870

Abstract: Ever since the Industrial Revolution of the late-eighteenth and early-nineteenth centuries, industrialization has been the key to modern economic growth. The fact that modern industry originated in Britain, and spread initially to north-western Europe and North America, implied a dramatic divergence in living standards between the industrial North (or 'West') and a non-industrial, or even de-industrializing, South (or 'Rest'). This nineteenth-century divergence, which had profound economic, military, and geopolitical implications, has been studied in great detail by many economists and historians. Today, this divergence between the 'West' and the 'Rest' is visibly unravelling, as economies in Asia, Latin America and even sub-Saharan Africa converge on the rich economies of Europe and North America. This phenomenon, which is set to define the twenty-first century, both economically and politically, has also been the subject of a considerable amount of research. Less appreciated, however, are the deep historical roots of this convergence process, and in particular of the spread of modern industry to the global periphery. This volume fills this gap by providing a systematic, comparative, historical account of the spread of modern manufacturing beyond its traditional heartland, to Southern and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Asia, Africa, and Latin America, or what we call the poor periphery. It identifies the timing of this convergence, finding that this was fastest in the interwar and post-World War II years, not the more recent 'miracle growth' years. It also identifies which driving forces were common to all periphery countries, and which were not. Contributors to this volume - Gareth Austin, University of Cambridge Jean-Pascal Bassino, Ecole normale superieure de Lyon Agustin Benetrix, Trinity College Dublin Loren Brandt, University of Toronto Gerardo della Paolera, Universidad de San Andres Xavier Duran, Manchester Business School Ewout Frankema, Wageningen University Matteo Gomellini , Banca d'Italia Aurora Gomez Galvarriato, Harvard University Bishnupriya Gupta, University of Warwick Martin Ivanov, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Morten Jerven, Simon Fraser University Ula? Karakoc, London School of Economics Alexander Klein, University of Kent Michael Kopsidis, Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies Debin Ma, London School of Economics Andrei Markevich, The New Economic School Graciela Marquez Colin, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico Aldo Musacchio, Brandeis University Steven Nafziger, Williams College Kevin O'Rourke, All Souls College, Oxford ?evket Pamuk, The Ataturk Institute for Modern Turkish History Laura Panza, University of Melbourne Dwight Perkins, Harvard University Thomas Rawski, University of Pittsburgh Tirthankar Roy, London School of Economics Max-Stephan Schulze, London School of Economics John Tang, Australian National University Gianni Toniolo, Duke University Tamas Vonyo, Bocconi University Jeffrey Williamson, emeritus, Harvard University

Identifikasi Tingkat Inflasi Nasional Berdasarkan Cost Push Inflation Menggunakan Metode Pemrograman Dinamis

Abstract: Inflasi adalah kenaikan harga barang dan jasa secara terus menerus dan dalam waktu tertentu. Pengendalian inflasi harus dilakukan sesuai dengan pertimbangan sebagai upaya pemerintah dalam menentukan kebijakan moneter pada strategi ekonomi. Pemrograman dinamis digunakan untuk membuat suatu keputusan yang saling berkaitan dengan mempertimbangkan pendekatan umum dan memperhatikan variabel independen. Variabel independen yang digunakan, yaitu output gap, diskon faktor, dan nilai periode dalam loss function dengan mempertimbangkan nilai tukar uang dan rata-rata harga komoditas pangan nasional (beras, cabai merah, dan bawang merah) pada tahun 2019. Penerapan metode Pemrograman Dinamis menunjukkan bahwa secara keseluruhan diperoleh identifikasi nilai yang lebih optimal (nilai inflasi hasil identifikasi lebih rendah dari pada nilai inflasi aktualnya), kecuali bulan Maret dan Desember 2019. Pada bulan Maret 2019, nilai inflasi aktual 2,48% dan nilai inflasi hasil identifikasi 2,52%. Sedangkan bulan Desember 2019, nilai inflasi aktual 2,72% dan nilai inflasi hasil identifikasi 2,74%.

Secular trends in Javanese adult height: the roles of environment and educational attainment

Abstract: Since its independence in 1945, Indonesia has undergone rapid socioeconomic development. The fastest changes occurred in Java, which is the main island where more than half of the Indonesian population lives.This study aimed to analyze the secular trend in the height of adults living in Java born between 1953 and 1995 by comparing their residence (rural, small city, or large city) and considering factors that contribute to adult height.The analysis used the following data: birth year, body height, weight, body mass index, sex, educational attainment, share of household food expenditures, and residence of 20- to 40-year-old men and women collected by the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) waves 1 to 5. Multiple linear regression was conducted to analyze several factors that influence adult height. Significance was set at p < 0.05 with a 95% confidence interval (CI).The study included 30,656 measurements of individuals born between 1953 and 1995 (54.9% female). Positive secular trends (95% CI) were observed for men and women: 1.3 (1.1-1.4) cm and 0.9 (0.8-1.0) cm per decade, respectively. Multiple linear regression analyses showed that, in addition to the year of birth, the adult height of both males and females was independently associated with level of education and share of household food expenditure. Stratifying the data into residence in rural areas, small cities, and large cities showed that education levels influenced the adult height of men and women living in all regions, whereas the influence of birth year and share of household food expenditure differed between areas and genders.We observed positive secular trends in the height of adults living in Java who were born between 1953 and 1995. The birth year, educational attainment, and share of household food expenditure significantly influenced adult height. A higher education level was consistently associated with taller adult height in both men and women living in rural areas, small cities, and large cities.

Cyber Notary as A Mean of Indonesian Economic Law Development

Abstract: This paper tries to show how Indonesian economic law has evolved via the emergence of the cyber notary idea. Notaries engage in various everyday tasks and activities in the fantastic world development, such as giving the clients the finest service possible and impacting the economy. According to the law, notaries are required to be able to help and support anyone who requires genuine written documentation of legal situations, events, or activities. This study employs qualitative approaches and descriptive analysis. Additionally, researchers are interested in the phenomenon that examines the idea of a cyber notary as a way to advance Indonesian commercial law. Qualitative research aims to conduct extremely thorough investigations that examine the research's findings in great detail. Both primary data and secondary data are employed as sources of information. The findings demonstrate that cyber notary adds value to electronic documents by legalising them, for example, in addition to digitising notarial operations. However, because many aspects need to be ready, its implementation will take some time. Article 1868 of the Indonesian Civil Code stipulates that a genuine deed is a deed in a certain form that has been prescribed by law and is made before a public authority.

How Different Geographical Areas React to Covid19 Shock : Regional Resilience and Structural Transformation

Abstract: In the last 10 years, Covid19 has emerged as an important recent shock that has had an effect on the globaleconomy. Regional resilience may have an effect on how different regions are affected. This study intends tolook at how regional resilience is affected by structural change both before and after Covid19. We identify twodifferent situations (prior to and during the Covid19 shock) that affect whether structural reform increasesregional resilience. The findings show that Covid19 has a number of negative effects on regional resilience.Additionally, raising a sector's productivity has a significant positive effect on resilience under typical conditions(prior to Covid19). A sector's increased productivity and contemporaneous workforce transfer to other sectorswith higher productivity during the COVID19 shock, however, have a significant beneficial effect on regionalresilience. Therefore, when the circumstance is stable, productivity becomes more crucial. However, amid ashock, the industry and its employees' flexibility and agility are more crucial.