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Modern Applied Statistics With S

The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord’s goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.

/pdf/contrasting-futures-for-ocean-and-society-from-different-4ih2lstogv.pdf

Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios

Climate change is driving changes in the physical and chemical properties of the ocean that have consequences for marine ecosystems. Here, we review evidence for the responses of marine life to recent climate change across ocean regions, from tropical seas to polar oceans. We consider observed changes in calcification rates, demography, abundance, distribution and phenology of marine species. We draw on a database of observed climate change impacts on marine species, supplemented with evidence in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We discuss factors that limit or facilitate species’ responses, such as fishing pressure, the availability of prey, habitat, light and other resources, and dispersal by ocean currents. We find that general trends in species responses are consistent with expectations from climate change, including poleward and deeper distributional shifts, advances in spring phenology, declines in calcification and increases in the abundance of warm-water species. The volume and type of evidence of species responses to climate change is variable across ocean regions and taxonomic groups, with much evidence derived from the heavily-studied north Atlantic Ocean. Most investigations of marine biological impacts of climate change are of the impacts of changing temperature, with few observations of effects of changing oxygen, wave climate, precipitation (coastal waters) or ocean acidification. Observations of species responses that have been linked to anthropogenic climate change are widespread, but are still lacking for some taxonomic groups (e.g., phytoplankton, benthic invertebrates, marine mammals).

/pdf/responses-of-marine-organisms-to-climate-change-across-2yqrxoj2dw.pdf

Responses of Marine Organisms to Climate Change across Oceans

There is mounting evidence of species redistribution as climate warms. Yet, our knowledge of the coupling between species range shifts and isotherm shifts remains limited. Here, we introduce BioShifts—a global geo-database of 30,534 range shifts. Despite a spatial imbalance towards the most developed regions of the Northern Hemisphere and a taxonomic bias towards the most charismatic animals and plants of the planet, data show that marine species are better at tracking isotherm shifts, and move towards the pole six times faster than terrestrial species. More specifically, we find that marine species closely track shifting isotherms in warm and relatively undisturbed waters (for example, the Central Pacific Basin) or in cold waters subject to high human pressures (for example, the North Sea). On land, human activities impede the capacity of terrestrial species to track isotherm shifts in latitude, with some species shifting in the opposite direction to isotherms. Along elevational gradients, species follow the direction of isotherm shifts but at a pace that is much slower than expected, especially in areas with warm climates. Our results suggest that terrestrial species are lagging behind shifting isotherms more than marine species, which is probably related to the interplay between the wider thermal safety margin of terrestrial versus marine species and the more constrained physical environment for dispersal in terrestrial versus marine habitats. Compiling a global geo-database of >30,000 range shifts, the authors show that marine species closely track shifting isotherms, whereas terrestrial species lag behind, probably due to wider thermal safety margins and movement constraints imposed by human activities.

/pdf/species-better-track-climate-warming-in-the-oceans-than-on-1w7u2lzukm.pdf

Species better track climate warming in the oceans than on land

Climate change impacts on vertebrates have consequences for marine ecosystem structures and services. We review marine fish, mammal, turtle, and seabird responses to climate change and discuss their potential for adaptation. Direct and indirect responses are demonstrated from every ocean. Because of variation in research foci, observed responses differ among taxonomic groups (redistributions for fish, phenology for seabirds). Mechanisms of change are (i) direct physiological responses and (ii) climate-mediated predator-prey interactions. Regional-scale variation in climate-demographic functions makes range-wide population dynamics challenging to predict. The nexus of metabolism relative to ecosystem productivity and food webs appears key to predicting future effects on marine vertebrates. Integration of climate, oceanographic, ecosystem, and population models that incorporate evolutionary processes is needed to prioritize the climate-related conservation needs for these species.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/350/6262/772.full.pdf

Climate change and marine vertebrates

Demersal fish, shrimp and cephalopod assemblages on the continental shelves and slopes off Angola, Namibia and the southern and western coasts of South Africa have been monitored in terms of fisheries-independent trawl surveys since the 1980s. The time series have provided vital input to stock assessments and are widely used in studies of ecology and biodiversity. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the technical specifications of the vessels and trawls used, to examine effects of modifications on catching efficiency, and to assess implications of these modifications over time. We find that the demersal trawl data collected in South Africa are not comparable with those of Namibia and Angola, and that the time series of Angola and Namibia contain inherent differences in terms of catchability of bottom dwellers. The introduction of smaller bobbins gear on the RV Dr. Fridtjof Nansen in 1994 increased the catchability of bottom-dwelling species, and catch rates of monkfish and sole were higher in surveys with commercial vessels than the RV Dr. Fridtjof Nansen. We recommend that temporal trends are interpreted with caution and that time series for the three countries are viewed in isolation.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/fog.12079

An evaluation of the bottom trawl surveys in the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem

Distributional change, expressed as range expansion or contraction
, has been observed in many marine populations and related to changes in the environment. The extent of such distributional changes is also expected to increase in response to future climate change. The Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem (BCLME) which adjoins the south-western coast of Africa is a global marine hotspot with long-term warming occurring over a large area. The area is also an important centre of marine food production for three countries—South Africa, Namibia and Angola and is considered to be vulnerable to future climate change or increased climate variability. In this study we analysed change in distribution and range size of several demersal fish species in the BCLME over the period 1985–2010, including both commercial and non-commercial fish populations. Some of the observed changes in distribution and range size correspond to what is expected with increased warming whereas others appear to the contrary. Overall the results of the study highlight the complex nature of the response of fish population to climate change.

Assessing changes in the distribution and range size of demersal fish populations in the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem

Using long-term survey data, changes in demersal faunal communities in the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem were analysed at community and population levels to provide a comparative overview of the occurrence and timing of regime shifts. For South Africa, the timing of a community-level shift observed in the early 1990s, and of a lesser shift observed in the mid-2000s, corresponded well with the results of other studies that showed environmental, community-level or population-level changes at similar times, suggesting that environmental forcing had played a role. Several population-level shifts were detected for Namibia; these and a regime shift in the overall community identified for this country corresponded well to the timing of severe environmental perturbations and an extensive regime shift in the pelagic ecosystem of this area. However, the interpretation of these shifts was confounded by changes in sampling gear; closer scrutiny of the types of species affected and the direction of shifts (increase/decrease) in relation to the timing and nature of sampling gear modifications, revealed that the observed shifts were potentially an artefact of gear changes. This highlighted the importance of accounting for changes in sampling protocols during the analysis and interpretation of long-term data. For Angola, a community level shift in the mid-2000s and population-level changes for a few species (mainly positive), could not have been influenced by gear changes which took place mainly before the onset of the time series under consideration. However, no clear environmental or anthropogenic changes that could have influenced these shifts were obvious.

Bjørn Erik Axelsen

Papers

An evaluation of the bottom trawl surveys in the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem

Assessing changes in the distribution and range size of demersal fish populations in the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem

Regime shifts in demersal assemblages of the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem: a comparative assessment